Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Forecast for AUD/USD on February 15, 2022

Over the past day, the situation on the Australian dollar has not changed. The price tried to reach the target level of 0.7065, but returned to its original positions. Now we are waiting for a second such attempt, the target of 0.7065 remains relevant. The 0.6950 level is a promising target, which coincides (at the moment) with the lower border of the descending channel of the Marlin Oscillator.

On the four-hour chart, just like a day ago, the price is gathering strength to overcome the support of the MACD line at the price of 0.7120. Consolidation below it will reopen the target level of 0.7065. The Marlin Oscillator is in a downward position.

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 15, 2022

Yesterday's decline in the euro amounted to 44 points. The lower daily shadow reached the MACD line, but there was no consolidation either under it or under the price level of 1.1300. Well, since the delay occurred in the range of the monthly consolidation of December 2021, then a sideways movement is likely for another one or two days. Overcoming yesterday's low (1.1280), which will correspond to the breakthrough of the MACD line, will open the target at 1.1060. A reversal of the euro into growth is possible, but the signal level is very high - this is the high of February 10 at 1.1495. Before crossing this level, strong chaotic movements in the range of 1.1300-1.1496 are very likely. But such movements in themselves will already be a sign of further growth of the euro, to the target range of 1.1700/22. Downward movement is expected to be smooth.

On a four-hour scale, the price is consolidating at 1.1300. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator also lies sideways. Price and oscillator in downward trend zones. A change in trends may occur when the price goes above the MACD line, above 1.1364. This will be a sign of its further movement towards 1.1496. But, based on the situation on the daily chart, such a local growth may turn out to be false. We are waiting for the development of the situation.

Bitcoin rises sharply and crypto investors buy lesser-known altcoins

On Tuesday, Bitcoin soared by 5% overnight and jumped above $44,000. According to CoinGecko, the world's largest aggregator of digital asset data, the capitalization of the flagship virtual asset rose to $833 billion in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin's main competitor, Ethereum, followed the trend of the crypto market's leader and rose by 6.73% to $3,112 in 24 hours.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $44,168.

At the end of last week, BTC rose to January's high of $45,800. Since then, the main cryptocurrency has been recovering from January's collapse to a low of $32,900 last seen in summer of 2021.

Experts say the main reason for the strong growth of the cryptocurrency market and other risky assets is the weakening of geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

On Tuesday, the market surged amid the Russian Defense Ministry's announcement that the Russian Armed Forces had returned from the exercises to their permanent home bases. At the end of last week, the White House said that Russian troops were concentrated on the border with Ukraine and claimed that Russia was preparing an invasion.

Since the beginning of 2021, the crypto market has been showing high correlation with other risky assets, in particular - with securities. Thus, due to the decline of global stock markets on Monday, Bitcoin also plummeted significantly, despite the high oscillation of quotations throughout the trading sessions. According to analysts of the crypto market, this situation occurs due to the growing institutionalization of the sector.

At the same time, many crypto-experts still perceive digital assets as a safe haven that can preserve its value in times of high volatility.

By the way, last week institutional investors, while continuing to invest in BTC and Ethereum, began to actively invest in little-known altcoins. Thus, Terra, Tezos and Cosmos tokens were among the favorites of the cryptocurrency market. As a result, traders invested $2.2 million, $0.9 million and $0.6 million in the above-mentioned assets, respectively. The cryptocurrency market added $75 million thanks to large institutional investors.

The highest share of $25 million was invested in BTC, while the leading altcoin - Ethereum - unexpectedly received $21 million from institutional investors, thus interrupting a two-month period of capital outflow.

US stock indices trade mixed

US stock indices closed mixed on Wednesday. The Dow Jones and the NASDAQ lost 0.16% and 0.11% respectively. The S&P 500 added 0.1%.

The indices showed 2 sessions of decline. However, the FOMC Minutes for January released yesterday installed optimism in markets. Traders are now trying to guess whether this is going to be a quarter or a half-percentage-point interest rate hike next month.

Easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine are adding optimism. Russian troops are returning to their permanent deployment sites after the exercises. Russia and Belarus began their joint military drills "2022 Union Resolve" to examine the readiness of its forces "suppressing and repelling external aggression," and countering terrorism. The military exercise does not pose any threat and its function is solely defensive, the parties said.

Continuing inflation is spooking investors. In the UK, the figure hit the 30-year high. In the US, retail sales jumped to 3.8% in January, much better than market forecasts of a 2% rise. On a yearly basis, US retail sales increased 13% in January, compared to a 16.7% rise in December.

Monetary policy, high energy prices, and global supply chain disruptions are among the forces driving inflation up. The Fed will have to resort to aggressive measures if inflation growth is not tamed.

Industrial production in the US increased 4.10% year-on-year in January. The figure had been expected to grow by 0.4%-05%. On a yearly basis, industrial production climbed 4.1%, following a 3.8% rise in December.

Uncertainty in the market is caused by various factors, including galloping inflation, monetary measures by regulators, the imbalance between supply and demand, as well as an uneven pace of the global economic recovery. The Russia-Ukraine conflict only adds fuel to the fire. All these factors, in turn, affect oil prices that have already soared to $93.66 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the earnings season in the US goes on. Kraft Heinz Co. incurred losses in Q4 2021. However, the adjusted figures showed higher-than-expected earnings. The company's stock added 5.6% as a result.

Roblox Corp. stock tumbled 26.5%, following disappointing Q4 earnings.

ViacomCBS plunged 17.8% after the publication of quarterly results below expectations.

Shopify Inc. lost 16%, following disappointing Q4 results, and despite higher-than-expected adjusted earnings.

The STOXX Europe 600 gained 0.1%. Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 2.2%. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index advanced 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.5% and China's Shanghai Composite added 0.6%.

US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.78%

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.78%, the S&P 500 fell 2.12%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 2.88%.

Walmart Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 5.35 points or 4.01% to close at 138.88. Quotes of Cisco Systems Inc rose by 1.48 points (2.72%), closing the session at 55.72. Coca-Cola Co rose 1.22 points or 2.00% to close at 62.12.

The biggest losers were Salesforce.com Inc, which shed 11.71 points or 5.53% to end the session at 200.03. Caterpillar Inc was up 4.37% or 8.90 points to close at 194.74, while 3M Company was down 3.57% or 5.50 points to close at 148.64. .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Newmont Goldcorp Corp, which rose 5.40% to hit 67.75, Sealed Air Corporation, which gained 5.00% to close at 67.35, and also shares of Walmart Inc, which rose 4.01% to end the session at 138.88.

The drop leaders were Albemarle Corp, which shed 19.91% to close at 197.02. Shares of LKQ Corporation lost 14.32% and ended the session at 47.64. Quotes of Tyler Technologies Inc decreased in price by 8.75% to 428.62.

Among the components of the NASDAQ Composite, gainers today were Inspirato Inc, which rose 648.38% to hit 92.65, Cepton Inc, which gained 343.51% to close at 42,000, and Anghami De Inc, which rose 161.36% to end the session at 28,880.

The biggest losers were Amplitude Inc, which shed 58.90% to close at 17.10. Shares of Guardion Health Sciences Inc lost 34.12% to end the session at 0.3700. Quotes of Yumanity Therapeutics Inc decreased in price by 28.81% to 1.26.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2388) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (861), while quotes of 96 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,037 companies fell in price, 788 rose, and 179 remained at the level of the previous close.

Shares in Salesforce.com Inc fell to a 52-week low, shedding 5.53% or 11.71 points to close at 200.03. Shares of Coca-Cola Co surged to an all-time high, up 2.00% or 1.22 points to close at 62.12. Shares of 3M Company fell to a 52-week low, down 3.57% or 5.50 points to close at 148.64. Shares of Inspirato Inc surged to a record high of 648.38% or 80.27 points to close at 92.65. Amplitude Inc shares fell to all-time lows, down 58.90% or 24.51 points to close at 17.10. Cepton Inc shares rose to an all-time high, up 343.51%, 32.530 points, to close at 42,000. Shares in Guardion Health Sciences Inc tumbled to a 52-week low, falling 34.12% at 0.1916 to close at 0.3700. Shares of Anghami De Inc surged to all-time highs, up 161.36%, 17.830 points, to close at 28.880. Shares in Yumanity Therapeutics Inc tumbled to their lowest point, falling 28.81% or 0.51 points to close at 1.26.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 15.73% to 28.11.

Gold futures for April delivery added 1.57%, or 29.30, to $1,900.80 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery fell 2.09%, or 1.96, to $91.70 a barrel. Brent oil futures for April delivery fell 0.06%, or 0.06, to $92.91 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.03% to hit 1.1363, while USD/JPY shed 0.01% to hit 114.92.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.14% to 95.828.

American stock indicators fell on Friday and at the end of the week

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 232.85 points (0.68%) to 34,079.18 points. Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 31.39 points (0.72%) - up to 4348.87 points. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 168.65 points (1.23%) to 13,548.07 points.

Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.9% over the week, S&P 500 - 1.6%, Nasdaq Composite - 1.8%.

Today the US markets are closed due to the holiday (Presidents' Day).

Shares of Shake Shack Inc. fell by 4.1% in trading on Friday. The American fast food chain halved its net loss in the fourth quarter of last fiscal year and increased revenue by more than a quarter, but did not issue a full-year forecast due to market uncertainty.

The cost of Roku Inc. shares. fell by 22%. The streaming equipment company's net income fell 65% in the fourth quarter, while its revenue forecast for the current quarter fell short of analysts' expectations.

Share price of Intel Corp. dropped by 5.3%. After the market closed on Thursday, the company released guidance for 2022 that came in better than market expectations. So, Intel predicts that its profit this year will be $3.5 per share on revenue of $76 billion, while the forecasts of experts polled by FactSet suggest earnings of $3.42 per share on revenue of $74.99.

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger noted that revenue growth will be moderate this year and will begin to accelerate from next year. By 2025-2026 they will increase to 10-12% per year and will remain double-digit in the future.

Deere & Co., which released its first financial quarter results on Friday, shed 3% despite the company's strong results. The US farm equipment maker's net income and revenue beat market forecasts last quarter.

Share price of JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased by 0.5%. The bank's chief financial officer, Jeremy Barnum, expressed confidence that JPMorgan could achieve a medium-term return on tangible capital (ROTCE) of 17%.

Barnum also noted that the bank's financial markets division's revenue is likely to fall by 10% in the first quarter, but this rate of decline will be lower than expected. In addition, he confirmed that JPMorgan plans to increase capex by $3.5 billion in 2022, including investments in technology projects.

From the perspective of investors, one of the most important consequences of the escalation of the crisis for the global economy could be a reduction in the supply of oil on the market. Russia is one of the world's largest producers of this type of raw material, and potential sanctions or any other restrictions could lead to an even more significant rise in prices, experts say.

Statistical data on the US housing market, published on Friday, were better than expected. US existing home sales increased 6.7% in January to 6.5 million homes on an annualized basis, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said. In December, resales decreased by 3.8% and amounted to 6.09 million, and not 6.18 million as previously reported. Experts on average predicted a decline of 1% compared to the previously announced figure.

On Tuesday, the stock market in Europe is steadily falling

From the very beginning of trading, European stock indices have been showing a decline of 3% amid the increasing tension of the situation in Eastern Europe.

Thus, the key British FTSE 100 index fell by 1.27% to 7,389.6 points, the French CAC 40 lost 1.94%, dropping to 6,656.98 points, and the German DAX sank by 2.29% to 1,4393.58 points.

The day before, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic. According to the new documents, the maintenance of peace in the DPR and LPR will be provided by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

In response, the President of the United States Joe Biden signed a sanctions decree stating that Russia's recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR poses a threat to national security and America's foreign policy interests.

On Monday, trading on European stock exchanges also ended in the red due to another aggravation of the geopolitical situation in eastern Europe. At the same time, at the beginning of the session, the leading stock indicators showed confident positive dynamics against the background of news that French President Emmanuel Macron offered the leaders of the United States and Russia a summit on security issues in Europe. The Presidents of both states accepted the proposal.

However, by the end of the trading day, stock indicators began to decline spectacularly against the background of the prospects of recognition of the independence of the DPR and the LPR by the Russian Federation.

In addition, the internal statistics of the region provided tangible support for the exchange indicator of European stock markets on Monday. Thus, according to preliminary estimates of experts, in February, the composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) of 19 eurozone countries rose to 55.8 points from January's 52.3 points. At the same time, analysts predicted an increase to 52.7 points.

The indicator of activity in the service sector this month jumped to a similar 55.8 points from 51.1 points in January.

The strengthening of the euro against the dollar had a tangible negative impact on the leading stock indices in Europe. So, yesterday, the euro exchange rate against the US currency increased by 0.15% to $ 1.134 per euro. The main support for the European currency was the same strong statistics for the region.

As a result, the Europe Stoxx 600 index of leading European enterprises lost 1.3%, closing at 454.81 points. The securities of the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca (+4%), the Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor (+2.9%), and the French operator of gerontological centers Orpea Group (+1.9%) reported the highest indicators as part of the Europe Stoxx 600 components.

The main outsiders were the shares of British online retailer THG PLC (-8.8%), mining company Polymetal International (-8.5%), and mobile operator Millicom International Cellular SA (-7.6%).

The German DAX fell by 2.07% to 14,731.12 points, the French CAC 40 lost 2.04%, dropping to 6788.34 points, and the British FTSE 100 sank by 0.39% to 7,484.33 points.

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GOLD for February 23

EUR/USD

Analysis:
The wave construction of the European currency chart, which has not been completed for today, has been reported since January 28. This rising wave has a reversal potential. If it is confirmed, the wave will give rise to a new short-term trend. The downward section of the last two weeks has not yet gone beyond the correction.

Forecast:
Today, the price is expected to move between the nearest oncoming zones. In the first half of the day, a downward course is more likely. At the end of the day or tomorrow in the area of settlement support, you can expect a reversal and a resumption of the price rise.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 1.1360/1.1390

Support:
- 1.1290/1.1260

Recommendations:
Euro trading in the near future can bring profit only in the form of short-term transactions in a small lot. Purchases will become possible after the appearance of confirmed reversal signals in the area of the support zone.

USD/JPY

Analysis:
The trend rate of the Japanese yen major in the last two years is set by the ascending wave algorithm. Quotes are currently located within the boundaries of the resistance zone of the senior TF. The unfinished section has been counting since November 30 last year. In the last two weeks, the price in sideways flat forms an intermediate pullback.

Forecast:
On the current day, the price is expected to move from the lower border of the price corridor to the area of the calculated resistance. At the European session, pressure on the support zone is not excluded, with a short-term puncture of the lower border.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 115.50/115.80

Support:
- 114.80/114.50

Recommendations:
Today, short-term purchases with a fractional lot from the support zone are possible on the yen chart. It is recommended to close deals at the first signs of an imminent reversal.

GOLD

Analysis:
The rising wave brought gold quotes to the area of the strong resistance of a large TF. Before continuing the rise, the structure needs to increase its wave level in correction.

Forecast:
In the next day, the price is expected to move sideways with a common downward vector. The preliminary target zone runs along the upper boundary of the large-scale support zone.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 1905.0/1910.0

Support:
- 1875.0/1870.0

Recommendations:
Short-term fractional lot sales are possible until the current decline is completed. It is optimal to refrain from entering the market of the instrument until the confirmed buy signals appear in the area of the support zone.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 24, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from February 23:
The European Union published the final data on inflation, which coincided with the preliminary estimate, which showed an acceleration in consumer price growth from 5.0% to 5.1%. This fact was already embedded in the prices, so it was ignored by the market. Now, the center of everyone's attention is the information flow.

February 24 economic calendar:
The United States GDP data is expected to be published today, where, according to forecasts, the second estimate should coincide with the first, which is unlikely to affect the market in any way.

At the same time, weekly data on jobless claims in the U.S. will be published, which are expected to decrease in volume. This is a positive factor for the U.S. labor market if expectations match.

Statistics details:

The volume of initial claims for unemployment benefits may be reduced from 248,000 to 235,000.

The volume of continuing claims for benefits may be reduced from 1.593M to 1.580M.

Time targeting

U.S. GDP - 13:30 Universal time

U.S. Jobless Claims - 09:30 Universal time

Information and news noise

The flow of information is developing so rapidly that it leads to a wave of speculation in the market. Therefore, the topic of Ukraine leads to sharp price changes in the entire financial sector, whether it is the currency or stock market. It is worth keeping track of the news flow and getting ready for new bursts of activity from speculators.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 24:
In this situation, traders are considering the subsequent recovery of the dollar, where the local low of the downward trend at 1.1121 is used as a guideline. As a variable point of support on the way of sellers, there is coordinate 1.1230, which can locally contain the ardor of speculators. Thus, the subsequent increase in the volume of short positions should be expected after the stable holding of the price below 1.1230 in a four-hour period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on February 24:
In this situation, a stable holding of the price below 1.3485 will lead to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Traders are considering a possible price movement towards the local minimum on January 27 at 1.3357.

An alternative scenario will arise in case of a reduction in the volume of short positions in the support area of 1.3485/1.3500. This will lead to a slowdown in the downward move and, as a result, to a price rebound.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 25/02/2022

Yesterday, the pound was losing its positions for almost the entire day. And this process was accompanied by incessant reports of fighting in Ukraine. Investors were panicking and running away from risk. After all, the war is going on in Europe. This means that the risks extend to the entire continent. After the fighting began to gradually subside and acquire a largely fragmentary character, a banal technical correction began on the market. Which, in general, is not surprising, given the scale of the previous decline. But we are talking about a temporary stop. After the start of the corrective movement, Western countries gradually began to voice the imposed sanctions, which in fact turned out to be not as terrifying as promised. However, Western countries immediately declared that this is only the first block of sanctions, and if military actions do not stop, additional ones will be introduced. So the sanctions themselves have not affected the market in any way so far. They will begin to affect us in the near future. And only in a negative way. The fact is that Russia can fend off most of them with retaliatory sanctions that will cause comparable damage to the economies of Western countries. So now the market is waiting for retaliatory actions from Moscow, which the Kremlin clearly hinted at last night. In other words, yesterday evening's growth of the pound is only temporary and is rather a respite before a new wave of decline.

The British currency against the US dollar in the wake of strong speculation locally lost more than 300 points in value over two trading days. This led to the renewal of the 2022 low and a strong overheating of short positions. As a result, there was a technical correction in the market.

The RSI technical instrument fell to 20.76 in a four-hour period, which signaled a high level of oversold pound.

Moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator indicate a downward trend. There is no intersection between MA lines.

Expectations and prospects:

In this situation, the correction is still taking place in the market, which led to a partial recovery of the British currency. The values of 1.3450 and 1.3480 can play as a possible resistance on the bulls' way. Thus, the downward move may eventually resume, supporting the general strengthening of dollar positions in the market. The largest increase in the volume of short positions is expected after keeping the price below 1.3350 in the daily period.

A complex indicator analysis gives a signal to buy in the short-term and intraday periods due to the corrective move. Technical instruments in the medium term indicate a downward move, signaling a sell.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 28, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from February 25:
The previous week ended interestingly. The information flow continued to put pressure on the market. As a result, speculative price jumps could be observed.

February 28 economic calendar:
Monday is traditionally accompanied by a blank macroeconomic calendar. Nevertheless, the massive information and news flow will continue to play on the nerves of speculators, which allows new leaps in the market.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 28:
A new trading week opened with a large gap, as a result of which the quote fell to the area of 1.1121. In this situation, a slight rollback is possible, partially restoring the euro against the price gap. At the same time, the downward cycle persists in the market, thus keeping the price below 1.1100 will lead to a prolongation of the downward trend.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on February 28:
In this situation, the stable holding of the price below 1.3350 increases the chances of sellers for a subsequent downward move. Traders consider the local low of the downward trend at 1.3160 as a possible prospect.

An alternative scenario of market development considers a partial recovery of prices relative to the emerging gap. This step will in no way disturb the general downward mood of speculators.

Trading plan for EURUSD for March 02, 2022

Technical outlook:
EURUSD dropped through fresh swing lows around 1.1090 levels in the early trading hours on Wednesday. The single currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.1115 mark at this point in writing and could print yet another low before finding support. Bulls remain inclined to be back in control anytime soon from current levels.

EURUSD has been showing a bullish divergence on the daily RSI with every low since 1.1186 as depicted on the chart here. It is a strong indication for a potential bullish reversal from here anytime soon. Immediate price resistance is seen at 1.1500 mark and a break higher will confirm a meaningful bottom in place.

EURUSD still remains bullish looking at the larger degree wave structure. The earlier rally between 1.0636 and 1.2350 has been retraced just below its fibonacci 0.618 levels as seen here. High probability remains for a bullish turn from here and push through 1.1500 and 1.1700 levels respectively.

Trading plan:
Potential bullish turn towards 1.1500 and 1.1700 against 1.1000

Good luck!

US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 1.79%

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.79%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.86%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 1.62%.

Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 9.78 points or 5.35% to close at 192.61. Quotes of Intel Corporation rose by 2.05 points (4.38%), closing the session at 48.87. Dow Inc rose 2.07 points or 3.62% to close at 59.20.

The losers were Visa Inc Class A, which shed 0.49 points or 0.23% to end the session at 208.48. Walmart Inc was down 0.17 points (0.13%) to close at 136.16, while Procter & Gamble Company was up 0.48 points (0.31%) to close at 153. .79.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were EPAM Systems Inc, which rose 16.08% to 245.17, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co, which gained 10.25% to close at 16.99. as well as shares of Las Vegas Sands Corp, which rose 10.17% to end the session at 44.40.

The biggest losers were Charter Communications Inc, which shed 3.99% to close at 570.99. Shares of Enphase Energy Inc shed 3.93% to end the session at 163.89. Dentsply Sirona Inc lost 3.46% to 52.48.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Ecmoho Ltd, which rose 56.65% to hit 0.37, Imperial Petroleum Inc (NASDAQ:IMPP), which gained 39.19% to close at 2 .06, as well as shares of Regulus Therapeutics Inc, which rose 35.56% to close the session at 0.31.

The biggest losers were SAB Biotherapeutics Inc, which shed 39.87% to close at 2.76. Shares of Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc shed 39.75% to end the session at 6.26. Quotes Puhui Wealth Investment Management Co Ltd fell in price by 36.08% to 0.84.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2431) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (796), while quotes of 119 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2597 companies rose in price, 1210 fell, and 230 remained at the level of the previous close.

SAB Biotherapeutics Inc stock tumbled to all-time lows, down 39.87% or 1.83 points to close at 2.76.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 7.74% to 30.74.

Gold futures for April delivery lost 0.67%, or 13.00, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures rose 7.71%, or 7.97, to $111.38 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 0.45%, or 0.52, to $115.08 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.02% to 1.11, while USD/JPY rallied 0.03% to hit 115.53.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.03% to 97.37.

USD/CAD: energy stays strong driver for Canadian dollar

By the end of the week, the Canadian dollar was in high spirits, despite the serious geopolitical conflict around Ukraine. The Canadian dollar rallied on the back of the looming energy crisis, but was unable to consolidate its gains.

This week, the buyers of the Canadian dollar, who took advantage of the decline of the USD/CAD pair by over 150 pips, were in a winning position. As a result, the pair updated the lows recorded at the end of January 2022 and broke support at 1.2600.

USD/CAD is currently near the lowest levels of January. Analysts are expecting a further slide. On March 4, USD/CAD was trading at 1.2698, approaching a level of 1.2700.

The ubiquitous surge in energy prices poses a threat to the European economy. Against this backdrop, a number of key currencies, particularly the European currency, have weakened markedly. Meanwhile, commodity currencies such as the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars have gained strength.

An energy boost helped the Canadian dollar to strengthen. USD/CAD fell from 1.2730 to 1.2595 amid an increase in oil exports. Notably, Canada is one of the largest oil exporters.

The price of oil on the global market is a major trigger for rising inflation. Earlier this week, the price of benchmark Brent added 5%, reaching $115 a barrel. This is the highest figure since 2011, experts emphasize. The bullish rally in the oil market was triggered by investor fears of a global supply shortage and inaction by OPEC+ countries, which have been curbing oil production growth as much as they can.

Traders are concerned about the potential impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the global energy sector. Many Western countries have refrained from imposing sanctions on the Russian energy sector, but some market participants have stopped buying Russian oil. Against the backdrop of disruptions to offshore supplies of Russian crude, global oil production could sag. On March 3, Brent was as high as $120 a barrel.

Another factor supporting the Canadian dollar was a 25 basis points interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. The authority stressed that the regulator was ready for further rate hikes at upcoming meetings. It should be noted that the Bank of Canada has raised its key rate for the first time in 3.5 years and has set a course to further tighten monetary policy. The measure is required to limit inflationary pressures, which have intensified against the backdrop of rising fuel prices. The geopolitical conflict around Ukraine will not prevent further rate hikes, the bank believes.

The Canadian regulator is the second of the Group of Seven (G-7) central banks to increase its rate since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the Bank of Canada, a greater reduction in monetary stimulus will be required in the near future. This is necessary to further normalize monetary policy as the risk of stronger consumer price increases remains this year.

According to analysts, the main drivers behind the strength of the Canadian dollar and the decline in the USD/CAD pair to 1.2500 are oil and monetary ones. The Bank of Canada's hawkish rhetoric contributes to the CAD's strength. The national economy and currency are supported by rising oil prices, as raw materials are the country's key export resource.

US stock market under pressure from Russia-Ukraine conflict

S&P 500

The US stock market plunged, while the US dollar advanced. The situation in Ukraine and strong data on US nonfarm payrolls.

Major US indices ended lower at the end of the week: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5%, the NASDAQ Composite slid by 1.7%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.8%.

S&P 500: 4,329

Friday's statistics on the US labor market for February turned out to be positive. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 678,000, beating expectations and notching the best month for jobs growth since July. However, this increase followed a fall in December caused by the Omicron outbreak in the US. This means that the labor market has somewhat recovered. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% from 4.0% in January. In general, the market has almost fully recovered to pre-COVID levels in terms of employment growth and the jobs level.

As for Russia's military actions in Ukraine, the country continues to attack in several directions. Its forces are trying to encircle Kyiv and Kharkov. In the south, the Russians have opened a land corridor between Crimea and the Russian border in the east. Russia is seeking to expand the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The West is discussing new sanctions amid Russia's ongoing attack on Ukraine. Now traders fear that further sanctions will directly limit Russian oil and gas shipments. According to the German authorities, they are ready for such a scenario.

Two rounds of Russia-Ukraine peace talks have yielded almost no results. A third round of negotiations between the parties is set to take place this weekend.

USDX: 98.48. The US dollar hit a new annual high on both the situation in Ukraine and strong data on the US labor market. The Fed is still on track to raise interest rates on March 16.

USD/CAD: 1.2725. The pair continues to trade within the range of 1.2600 - 1.2800

Conclusion: The events unfolding in Ukraine remain the main factor driving the market. However, US stocks seem to be ready to gain on any signs of easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.56%

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.56% to a 6-month low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.73%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.28%.

Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 13.30 points or 6.76% to close at 210.00. Chevron Corp rose 8.49 points or 5.24% to close at 170.53. Boeing Co rose 4.63 points or 2.74% to close at 173.80.

Shares of Coca-Cola Co were the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 2.42 points (3.96%), ending the session at 58.66. Procter & Gamble Company rose 3.96% or 6.05 points to close at 146.79 while UnitedHealth Group Incorporated shed 2.75% or 13.41 points to close at 473.46.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Enphase Energy Inc, which rose 10.82% to 175.99, SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which gained 10.41% to close at 328.91, and also shares of Quanta Services Inc, which rose 8.17% to close the session at 116.83.

The biggest losers were Seagate Technology PLC, which shed 9.51% to close at 90.57. Shares of ConAgra Foods Inc shed 8.22% to end the session at 30.93. Quotes of Intuitive Surgical Inc decreased in price by 7.98% to 269.32.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 203.31% to 1.00, Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 88.49% to close at 1.15. as well as shares of Westport Fuel Systems Inc, which rose 52.63% to end the session at 2.03.

The drop leaders were shares of Imperial Petroleum Inc, which fell 43.33% to close at 4.25. Shares of Inspirato Inc lost 42.78% to end the session at 15.25. Quotes of Digital Brands Group Inc decreased in price by 30.61% to 1.36.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1694) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1502), while quotes of 147 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2069 companies rose in price, 1727 fell, and 265 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.62% to 35.13.

Gold futures for April delivery added 3.12%, or 62.35, to $2.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for April delivery rose 4.44%, or 5.30, to $124.70 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 0.06%, or 0.08, to $129.27 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.00% to 1.09, while USD/JPY edged up 0.01% to hit 115.67.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.17% to 99.12.

Trading plan for USDJPY for March 10, 2022

Technical outlook:
USDJPY rallied through 116.19 highs during early hours of trade on Thursday. The wave structure still remains bearish until prices stay below 116.35 mark as bears remain inclined to be back in control from here. A break below 115.60 will confirm that a lower top is in place around 116.19 and that prices are dragging lower towards 114.40 at least.

USDJPY could drop towards 113.50 and 112.50 in the next few trading sessions. The potential double top reversal pattern will be confirmed on a break below 113.50 mark, going forward. Alternatively, the currency pair is drifting sideways within a rising wedge since 116.35 highs. If the alternate count unfolds, prices could break above 116.35 mark producing a thrust wave higher towards 117.50.

USDJPY needs to break below 114.40 initial support at least, to rule out any further upside or triangle breakout. Even if prices break higher above 116.35 mark, upside remains limited and bears might be back in control sooner than expected. Either way, expect a bearish reversal from here or from 117.00-50 mark.

Trading plan:
Potential drop through 109.00 against 118.50

Trading plan for Gold for March 10, 2022

Technical outlook:
Gold seems to have carved a meaningful top around $2,070 mark on Tuesday. The yellow metal has faced formidable resistance just ahead of the critical swing high around $2,075 in August 2021. Prices are expected to drop one more time through $1,940-45 mark before producing a meaningful pullback going forward.

Gold prices also surpassed the Fibonacci 1.618 extension seen around $2,010 levels as highlighted on the 4H chart here. The extended last leg rally came to an abrupt end around $2,070 as bears came back in control. The downside potential targets remain $1,880 and $1,780 in the medium term. Ideally, prices will remain below $2,070 mark.

Gold finds immediate price support around $1,940, followed by $1,880 and further; while resistance is not fixed at $2,070 mark respectively. A break below $1,940 will confirm that bears are back in control and the trend has reversed for long time. The yellow metal remains a good candidate to be sold on rallies thereafter.

Trading plan:
Potential drop to $1,940 in the near term.

US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.34%

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.34%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.43%, the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.95%.

Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 4.55 points or 2.74% to close at 170.82. Walmart Inc rose 3.17 points (2.27%) to close at 142.63. Dow Inc rose 0.83 points or 1.39% to close at 60.63.

Shares of Apple Inc became the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 4.43 points (2.72%), ending the session at 158.52. Procter & Gamble Company was up 2.57% or 3.83 points to close at 144.94, while Cisco Systems Inc was down 2.16% or 1.21 points to close at 54.71.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Halliburton Company, which rose 8.93% to hit 37.95, Baker Hughes Co, which gained 8.67% to close at 36.74, and Mosaic Co, which rose 7.74% to end the session at 62.19.

Etsy Inc was the biggest loser, shedding 5.35% to close at 136.98. Shares of EPAM Systems Inc lost 4.86% to end the session at 188.76. Quotes of MSCI Inc decreased in price by 4.69% to 465.26.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 138.10% to hit 1.50, AgriFORCE Growing Systems Ltd, which gained 102.37% to close at 3.42 , as well as shares of Hoth Therapeutics Inc, which rose 38.79% to close the session at 0.80.

The biggest losers were Trean Insurance Group Inc, which shed 51.70% to close at 3.40. Shares of Fossil Group Inc lost 37.51% and ended the session at 9.08. Quotes TherapeuticsMD Inc fell in price by 27.50% to 0.29.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1836) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1367), and quotes of 128 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,282 companies fell in price, 1,463 rose, and 253 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 6.84% to 30.23.

Gold futures for April delivery added 0.68% or 13.60 to hit $2.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures fell 2.64%, or 2.87, to $105.83 a barrel. Futures for Brent oil for May delivery fell 0.04%, or 0.04, to $109.15 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.05% to 1.10, while USD/JPY rallied 0.00% to hit 116.14.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.58% to 98.53.

Start of week in cryptocurrency market

The first cryptocurrency fell to $37,100 last week. This was followed by BTC's soaring to $42,500. Digital gold is trading at $39,100 and has a market capitalisation of $743 billion.

According to CoinGecko, the world's largest aggregator of virtual asset data, the total capitalisation of the crypto market fell 1.3% to $1.81 trillion in the past week.

In November 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high, soaring above the $69,000 mark. Since then, the value of the coin has fallen by more than 40%.

The unpredictable behaviour of the digital coin market has experts making the most unexpected forecasts about its future. For example, many crypto-enthusiasts believe Bitcoin will remain in a small value range in the near future. The reason for the main digital coin's indecision, in their view, remains the foggy prospects in the global economic and political situation. The serious conflict in eastern Europe and the high risks are preventing investors from making big investments in both the crypto market and US stock exchanges.

However, some experts believe that the current volatility in global markets can benefit bitcoin. For example, Steve Wozniak, a well-known American computer programmer, recently said that BTC will soon reach the $100,000 mark. Wozniak believes that the main incentives for the digital coin to take such a leap are the tense geopolitical situation, the constantly growing interest of investors in cryptocurrencies and a soaring inflation rate.

By the way, many analysts have repeatedly called Bitcoin one of the most inflation-resistant assets in the world.

In any case, the focus of this week's crypto market remains the US Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Russians coming to the United Arab Emirates are actively selling billions of dollars' worth of digital currency. Amid fears of their own assets being locked up, they are seeking to convert crypto into fiat money and then buying real estate in the UAE.

Earlier, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed on his Twitter account that he had no plans to get rid of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin. Musk explained his decision with data from an article on inflation in the international business newspaper Financial Times.

Musk went on to advise his social media followers to invest in physical assets. "It is generally better to own physical things like a home or stock in companies you think make good products, than dollars when inflation is high," he wrote.

Following the Tesla CEO's tweet, the value of Dogecoin instantly rose by 10%.

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 15/03/2022

The European Union, as Josep Borrel said, seems to have really exhausted all possibilities for sanctions against Russia. The new sanctions package can be called purely symbolic, as it affects only a number of individuals and legal entities. In addition, Brussels intends to apply to the World Trade Organization for the suspension of the most favored nation regime in relation to Russia. But this point will have practically no effect, since Russia has not exported any goods to Europe anyway, except for raw materials, of course. So the introduction of protective duties, especially against the background of full-scale sanctions, will not affect the Russian economy in any way. It turns out that at least the European Union does not intend to further strengthen the sanctions confrontation, and it is quite possible that Russia will reciprocate. Which of course somewhat calms the market participants.

But another point is much more important. If you believe the statement of the official representatives of Ukraine, the negotiation process seems to have moved from a dead point, and some kind of peace agreement will be reached in the near future. At least, the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovych, said that it could be achieved within a week. This means that the fighting may soon stop, and with it the flow of refugees to Western Europe will stop. And after all, it is the fighting that is the main reason for the rather large-scale weakening of the pound. The very prospect of their termination in the near future already contributes to its growth, which we have been observing since yesterday. If the situation does not change, and will move in this direction, then this growth will continue.

The GBPUSD currency pair approached the level of 1.3000 with surgical precision, where the downward movement slowed down. The psychological level puts pressure on bears, but in this situation it is considered by traders only as a variable foothold on the path of a downward trend.

The RSI technical instrument moves in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator in a four-hour period, which indicates a high interest of traders in short positions. RSI D1 is in the oversold zone, which is due to the intense downward movement and the important price level of 1.3000.

Alligator H4 and D1 indicate a downward trend. There are no intersections between MA moving lines.

Expectations and prospects:

Despite the high desire of traders to continue to form a downtrend, the level of 1.3000 has a negative impact on the volume of short positions. This may lead to a slowdown in the downward cycle and, as a result, a price pullback.

A complex indicator analysis gives a signal to buy in the short term due to a price rollback. Indicators in the intraday and medium-term periods signal a sale, due to a downward trend.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 16, 2022

Details of the economic calendar of March 15:
Data on the UK labor market were published, where the unemployment rate fell from 4.1% to 3.9%. At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 48,000 during the February period, which is good news. The reaction of the pound sterling was quite restrained, probably, the information and news noise influences the market.

In the European Union, data on industrial production were published, the growth rate of which slowed down from 2.0% to -1.3%. The figures are bad and this is just the beginning as the data for February and March will definitely turn out to be even worse due to the current situation.

During the American trading session, the producer price index in the United States was published, where the indicator remained at the level of 10%.

March 16 economic calendar:
The key event of the day and, possibly, of the week are the results of the Fed meeting, where forecasts for the first refinancing rate increase in four years have been going on for a long time. Based on expectations, an increase of 0.25% is considered, which, with earlier forecasts, is considered the minimum possible change. Note that back in January, they predicted a rate increase of 0.5% at once, but due to recent events, the forecasts were revised.

Now the most important thing is not the rate, but the comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, since in the event of a change in strategy regarding the tightening of monetary policy, the U.S. dollar can significantly lose value. If the previously developed strategy of multiple rate hikes continues, the dollar will continue to strengthen.

It is worth considering that the fact of raising the rate even by 0.25% can locally play on the transactions of speculators.

Time targeting

Results of the Fed meeting - 18:00 UTC

Press conference - 18:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 16:
In this situation, price stagnation plays the role of accumulation of trading forces, with a high degree of probability it will lead to new surges in the market. Traders consider the values of 1.0900 and 1.1020 as signal levels. Holding the price outside one of the levels will indicate an impulse move in the price.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on March 16:
Despite the importance of the 1.3000 level, the downward trend prevails on the market. This can lead to a breakdown of the psychological level, where the current amplitude will become a lever for traders.

As a trading recommendation, consider two market development scenarios:

The first scenario is based on the breakdown of the level of 1.3000, where the confirmation of this signal will be the holding of the price below 1.2950 in a four-hour period.

The second scenario considers a price pullback from a psychologically important level. Buy positions will be active after holding the price above the value of 1.3080 in a four-hour period. This step will only temporarily change the trajectory of the main trend.

EU stocks maintain upward movement

At the close of trading on Wednesday, the main EU stock indices advanced amid rising risk appetite. In addition, market participants were awaiting the results of the FOMC meeting. They also continued to monitor news on the Russia- Ukraine conflict.

The STOXX Europe 600 Index grew by 3% to 448.45. The biggest gainers were Dutch conglomerate Prosus NV (+23.2%), Norwegian IT company Adevinta ASA (+15.8%), and Russian mining giant Polymetal International PLC (+14%).

The FTSE 100 Index jumped by 1.62% to 7291.68, while the CAC 40 index added 3.68%, hitting 6588.64. The DAX rose by 3.76%, approaching a 2-week high of 14440.74.

The shares of E.ON, the largest German energy supplier, climbed by 3.8%. The day before, the company reported an increase in adjusted net profit by 53% in annual terms following the results of last year. The earnings result significantly exceeded market expectations.

E.ON also points out that it expects a decrease in adjusted profit in 2022. The company is unable to assess the negative consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict for its operation yet.

The capitalization of EQT AB, the Swedish investment company, soared by 13% after it announced the acquisition of rival private-equity firm Baring Private Equity Asia for $ 7.5 billion.

On Wednesday, risk sentiment significantly increased in global markets. The stock indices of the Asia-Pacific region closed in the black. The Hang Seng index surged by 9% amid information that the Chinese authorities will adopt new rules for supervising the listing of companies on foreign exchanges. Meanwhile, the US stock markets also reported stable growth of 1-2%.

On Thursday, investors are anticipating the publication of the results of the FOMC meeting. According to preliminary estimates, the US regulator will raise the key rate to 0.25-0.5% per annum. Such an increase will be the first since the fall of 2018.

In addition, the Bank of England's meeting is scheduled for Thursday. Analysts assume that the central bank will announce a rate hike to 0.75% from 0.5% per annum.

As widely expected, the ECB kept the interest rate at zero and the deposit rate at minus 0.5% at the meeting last week.

At the same time, the regulator adjusted the volume of asset purchases. Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June.

Apart from that, the watchdog downgraded the forecast for Eurozone GDP growth from 4.2% to 3.2% in 2022.

Analysts reckon that traders were disappointed by the lack of reaction from the ECB to the war in eastern Europe. Following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Western states have permanently imposed sanctions against Russia. Last week, President Joe Biden banned the import of petroleum products from Russia. Large global corporations have partially or completely suspended their activities in Russia despite the prospects of s drop in their own profits.

Geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe remain in the limelight this week. The day before, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that there was hope for a compromise in negotiations with Ukraine. At the same time, Western media publish quotes from speeches of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, e.g. that talks with Russia were sounding 'more realistic'.

European stocks rose on Friday for the third trading session in a row

Investors continued to evaluate the results of the meetings of the US Federal Reserve System and the Bank of England, according to Trading Economics.

The composite index of the largest companies in Europe Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0.9% during the day and amounted to 454.62 points. Since last Friday, it has risen by more than 5%, the highest gain since November 2020. At the same time, the indicator ended "in positive territory" for the second week in a row.

The German DAX index on Friday rose by 0.2%, the British FTSE 100 - by 0.3% (having reached a maximum in two weeks), the French CAC 40 and the Spanish IBEX 35 - by 0.1%, the Italian FTSE MIB - by 0. 4%.

Over the past week, the CAC 40 is up 5.8%, the FTSE 100 is up 3.4% (the biggest gain since November 2020), and the DAX is up about 5%.

The leading gainer among Stoxx 600 components on Friday was HelloFresh SE, a food kit delivery company, up 9.7%. Quotes of securities of other representatives of this sector also rose significantly: Ocado Group Plc - by 7.6% and Delivery Hero SE - by 7.3%.

Shares of the German developer of software for remote access to computers TeamViewer rose in price by 6.6%, another IT company Softcat Plc - by 6%.

Meanwhile, Polymetal International, Russia's largest silver producer and one of the leading gold miners, plunged 13.6%. This is the worst result among the Stoxx 600 companies.

In addition, shares of reinsurance firm Hannover Rueck SE (-4.5%), media company ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (-4.2%), developers Entra ASA (-3.7%) and Vonovia SE (-3 .3%).

On the British market, shares of mining companies rose in price, including Anglo American (+0.8%) and BHP (+0.4%).

Ted Baker Plc jumped more than 17% after investment firm Sycamore Partners Management LP confirmed it was considering an offer to buy the clothing retailer.

Papers BATM Advanced Communications Ltd. rose by 1.4%. A telecommunications technology and systems provider for medical laboratories has entered into a strategic partnership with Taiwan's NEXCOM International Co.

Capitalization of Electricite de France SA increased by 1.7% - up to 9.47 euros. The French energy company plans to raise 3.1 billion euros through an additional issue. EDF will place 500 million new shares on the stock exchange at a price of 6.35 euros per share. The company will give its shareholders a priority right to purchase.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 22, 2022

March 22 economic calendar:
Tuesday is not much different from Monday, the macroeconomic calendar is still empty. Traders will continue to analyze the information flow for hot topics.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 22:
Stable retention of the price below the level of 1.1000 may well lead to a subsequent recovery of dollar positions relative to the recent correction. In case of a coincidence of expectations, the euro rate may fall to the values of 1.0900-1.0800.

An alternative scenario for the development of the market will be considered by traders if the quote returns above 1.1050. This step may well disrupt the recovery process.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on March 22:
In this situation, traders are still considering the trading tactics of breaking one or another control value relative to the price stagnation. In this regard, buy positions will be valid after holding the price above 1.3210 in a four-hour period, and sell positions would be active after holding the price below 1.3080 in a four-hour period.

ETH surpasses BTC in terms of growth rate

Ethereum soared above $3,000 on Tuesday. The coin has advanced by 3% over the last 24 hours and has added 16% over the past week. At the moment of writing, the altcoin traded at $3,009.76.

On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency updated the February high, and its market capitalization hit $361 billion.

The surge came after BTC, the world's largest digital asset, reached $43,300 and broke through the high as of March 3. As a reminder, bitcoin has traded sideways in the range between $37,000 and $42,000 for about a month.

However, after approaching the high on Tuesday, BTC started to gradually decrease. At the moment of writing, digital gold traded at $42,500. The asset has increased by 3% over the past 24 hours and has grown by 7.1% over the past seven days.

The spike in the value of ETH came amid expectations of the updates that could change the mining process of the altcoin.

Today, pressure mainly came from buyers in Europe and the United States, analysts at Glassnode said. Meanwhile, market players in the Asian region were more willing to sell the asset.

Other popular tokens showed steady growth, following a rise in BTC and ETH. Thus, Dogecoin grew 4.1% to $0.124. Uniswap and Cardano appreciated by about 5%.

The total capitalization of the crypto market came in at $2,02 trillion, according to CoinGecko, the world's largest cryptocurrency data aggregator.

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 24/03/2022

The single European currency is losing its position again. Although the scale of yesterday's decline turned out to be quite modest. But today this process has continued. And it is sustainable. The reason lies solely in the plane of energy carriers.

First, US President Joe Biden once again stated that during his visit to Europe he would seek from the EU the imposition of an embargo on oil and gas supplies from Russia. But Europe is extremely dependent on Russian energy supplies, and it is not at all clear what to replace them with. The United States itself can export only insignificant volumes, which will not be enough to replace Russian supplies. And this is not counting the fact that fuel prices in the United States, if lower than in Europe, then quite a bit. Whereas in Russia they are five or even six times lower. So if the United States manages to bend Europe, it will inevitably face both a real shortage of energy resources and an even greater increase in fuel prices. This is akin to the destruction of the European economy as such.

Secondly, Russia decided yesterday to sell gas for rubles. The truth is only for unfriendly countries, to which the whole of Western Europe belongs. Of course, this caused a shock, since for the entire post-war history, the prices of raw materials in the world were denominated exclusively in dollars. Roughly speaking, there was a unified pricing and settlement system. This is extremely convenient, and allows you to bring prices to a certain uniform standard, which reduces the cost. If prices are formed in different currencies, it will lead to chaos. The world is used to a single pricing system. And inevitably, this will lead to an increase in raw material prices. However, there is really no talk of any paradigm shift. It's all about the reservation regarding unfriendly countries. It contains an opportunity to bypass this solution. It's just that the buyers will not be the countries of the European Union, but some others. For example, from North Africa or the Middle East. But the gas itself will still be supplied to Europe. Only at slightly higher prices.

So as a result, the cost of energy carriers for Europe will still grow, which will have an extremely negative impact on the European economy. So it is not surprising that the European currencies are losing ground. And oddly enough, Russia's decision allows the European Union to even go for an embargo, since it will still buy gas through intermediaries, and not directly. But Europe will still have to pay dearly. That is the main factor in the weakening of the single European currency.

The EURUSD currency pair completed the consolidation move in the range of 1.1010/1.1045 by breaking the lower border. This move led to speculative activity, which enabled traders to stay below the psychological 1.1000 level.

The RSI technical instrument in the four-hour period confirmed the completion of the consolidation by the rebound of the indicator from the 50 line.

The Alligator H4 indicator has left the phase of intertwining MA moving lines, indicating a downward trend. Alligator D1 still indicates a downward trend in the medium term. There are no intersections between the moving MA lines.

Expectations and prospects:

In this situation, the primary signal to sell the euro was received in the course of holding the price below the level of 1.1000. Strengthening of the existing signal will occur when the price stays below 1.0960 in a four-hour period. This move may well restart dollar positions in the direction of 1.0900-1.0800. Otherwise, we are in for a turbulence within the boundaries of 1.0960/1.1150.

A complex indicator analysis gives a sell signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the price rebound from the resistance level. Indicators in the medium term give a sell signal due to a downward trend.

Pound sterling fluctuates as BoE revises plans due to inflation

The pound sterling has made slight gains over the week. However, GBP remains in a downtrend. Growing inflationary and geopolitical risks are putting pressure on the British currency, forcing the Bank of England to change its earlier plans.

Inflation in the UK has reached the highest point in 30 years, cancelling the plans of the British government. In February, consumer prices added 6.2%, and producer price inflation reached 10.1%. The government planned to impose the highest taxes in years next month to help economic recovery and prevent inflation from spiraling out of control.

Originally, the national insurance rate was to be increased by 1.25%, which would contribute £12 billion to state coffers. However, this plan was suspended due to difficult economic situation, UK finance minister Rishi Sunak announced on Wednesday, March 23.

Furthermore, the government reduced payroll taxes, cut the basic rate of income tax, and decreased the fuel duty. These measures are aimed at helping poorer families cope with rising prices. However, these plans are unlikely to affect the actual economic situation. According to projections by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), the cost of living for the poorest could rise by 10%, while their benefits will increase by just 3.1%. The Bank of England estimates that inflation could rise to 8% in April. However, its actual level exceeds these projections.

This situation is detrimental to the pound sterling in the long term. GBP is currently struggling to hold its current fragile position. Amid a protracted price increase, the British pound decreased on Thursday, March 24. GBP is fluctuating up and down, which are unbalancing the pound sterling's price dynamics. GBP/USD was moving within the 1.3214-1.3215 range early on Friday, trying to escape the downward spiral.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley recommend staying short on GBP, as markets price in too much tightening from the Bank of England this year - up to 5 interest rate increases in 2022.

Many economists are cautious with their outlooks, because the UK economy is in a difficult situation, and its currency is far from stable.

The Bank of England is conducting its current monetary policy in accordance with the challenges at hand, adjusting it depending on the current situation. The UK central bank has increased the key rate 3 times over the past 4 months. The hikes helped GBP advance against EUR, but weakened GBP/USD. Experts do not rule out another increase at the next BoE meeting on April 14.

The economic slowdown in the UK and geopolitical uncertainty demands caution in making key decisions from the Bank of England. As real disposable income falls and energy prices soar, the UK economy is expected to weaken.

Earlier outlooks suggested inflationary pressure would peak in April, with prices reaching 8%. However, stronger negative tendencies in the economy could send prices skyward throughout the year, experts predict. The Bank of England suggests further monetary tightening is appropriate amid skyrocketing real inflation in the UK.