Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017
The GBP/USD pair has been entrapped in a wide range of 400-500 pips during the past few weeks in spite of the fact that the bulls should be well-fed due to the recent strength exhibited by the sterling pound. Unlike other major currencies, which perished instantly the minute the USD showed signs of weakness, the GBP was able to keep its head above water by some sheer innate force present within the value of the sterling pound.
The market is now getting closer and closer to the invocation date of Article 50, which will then commence the start of the Brexit process, and a lot of market players are very thankful that the workings of the Brexit process are now becoming clear as the invocation date draws nearer. This might not be entirely good news, but at the very least this clarity would lend some sense of direction especially for GBP/USD traders. This is one of the reasons why the sterling pound is doing relatively well against other major currencies who are bearing the brunt of the USD’s weakness. The GBP/USD pair briefly traded within its range highs but eventually dropped and closed last week’s session at 1.2500 points and could possibly weaken further although there might be some minor bounces at 1.2400 or 1.2300 points. Any large corrections within this particular currency pair would probably lead to selloffs since the UK’s economic fundamentals are still looking very positive as of the moment.
UK will be releasing its manufacturing production data this week, and the GBP/USD pair would most likely drop further towards 1.2400 and could even become weaker and reach 1.2300 where a reversion is expected in order to put the currency pair within the safe range.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017

The USD/CAD pair had to deal with a very dismal trading movement last week after its consistent uptrend was finally faced with some barriers. The currency pair dropped below 1.3000 for a short period but eventually reverted albeit much weaker than its expected reversions. The market is now becoming concerned that the USD/CAD was unable to fully regain its strength especially since this pair is expected to be subject to more pressure during this week.

This drop in the pair’s value can be largely attributed to the dollar weakness which has become evident in the value of the USD/CAD pair especially since Canada’s economy is well on its way to further improvement and oil prices are now starting to exhibit stability as the oil production cut agreement continues to bode well for all oil economies, particularly Canada. The US dollar has been negatively hit by the various policies implemented by the Trump administration. With Donald Trump now looking at the NAFTA agreement. If the NAFTA becomes suspended, then this would have a negative effect on the economies of all countries involved, such as Canada, Mexico, and even the US. This is one of the reasons why the currency pair’s support barrier at 1.3000 points has been in significant risk during the past week.

The market is now monitoring whether the bulls of this pair would still manage to maintain its hold on this particular barrier especially since the US average wages report came in with very weak readings last Friday which has caused the US market to slump. This week is the Canadian economy’s turn, since Canada will be releasing its employment data and this is expected to give clues on the current state of the Canadian economy. If the pair manages to break through 1.3000, then this could be seen as a reversal in the pair’s current uptrend.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 6, 2017

The negative figures from the Chinese PMI affected the commodities declining demand which involves the commodity currencies such as the Aussie dollar. As the US treasury bond yields recovered, the greenbacks got some decent support from it on Friday.

The pair traded with a slightly bearish sentiment last February 3 and come close to its multi-month highs. Meanwhile, buyers found a predetermined level 0.7700 and unable to reclaim it. Therefore, bulls weren't able to sustain their gains and return to 0.7650. The region stalled the progress of the sellers as it secures the prize on its area amid the EU opening. The price slipped through the NY hours on the back of negating its losses on a daily basis. The AUD/USD is confined on top of the bullish moving averages mentioned in the 4-hour chart. Resistance settled near 0.7700, support entered 0.7650.

The MACD weakened which confirmed a weak position of the buyers. RSI consolidated around the overvalued territory. The pair should reach 0.7700 in order to alleviate the bearish bias. Contrarily, a downward movement would likely emerge when the AUDUSD had a dipped at 0.7650 level. A close below the aforesaid mark allows the pair to extend it declivity towards 0.7550.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 6, 2017

The British currency was kept in the pressured area on the back of a downbeat data of Services PMI coupled with the stronger stance of the greens.

Th sterling had a steep decline on Thursday after gaining a decent support within 1.2500 level where traders stalled for a renewed market indicators during the Asian hours. A bout of renewed selling interest drove the spot towards a lower position during the post opening of London trades. The GBP moved ahead to 1.2450 after it broke the region 1.2500 amid the American session.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the Cable leads the 50-EMA to a lower point. While the throughout the European hours, the spot is confined on top of the 100 and 200-EMAs. The 100-EMA advanced higher while the 200 and 50-EMA lies in the flat-lining. Resistance is at 1.2600, support touched 1.2500.

The MACD histogram sits in the centerline. An entry in the negative territory would signal for an increasing strength for the sellers. While, if it entered the positive area, buyers will dominate the entire market. RSI remained around the oversold zone near the neutral readings.

A break under 1.2500 is expected which would imply the continuing phase of a bearish outlook. Furthermore, a downward trend within the 1.2400 level is considered to occur.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 6, 2017

The greenbacks remained steady last Friday and beat the mixed data from the euro region. The Composite PMI and Markit Eurozone Composite PMI exceeded the expected outcome while the report for the Retail Sales presented negative figures. The bullishness on Friday was kept intact.

The single European currency came in green and continuously to lost its steam during the morning trades. Traders drove the spot towards the lower region of the ascending channel at 1.0750. Sellers had a tough attempt to break the uptrend line amid EU session and successfully make a gap prior to the onset of New York trades. According to the 4-hour chart, the price tested the 50-EMA in the EU hours while other moving averages headed up. Resistance settled at 1.0750. Support entered 1.0700 level. The MACD grew less which signaled weak position for the buyers. RSI escaped from the overvalued territory and proceeded southwards.

A near-term bearish sentiment might prevail. A position close to 1.0750, the EUR/USD pair next target is the support area 1.0700.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017

The EUR/USD pair will undergo pressure this week. Moreover, the NFP report was positive as the average earnings positioned at 0.1% lower than the expected 0.3%. When at first, it is expected for the bulls to take over the market but the trend doesn't have enough momentum bringing the price towards the 1.0800 as a resistance level which was the prior region. The greenback is being swayed because of the uncertainty from Trump and his team to change the policies and cannot be determined the next move of Euro.

The current psychological level at 1.0800 is a significant region and a break in this region could further bring the price towards the 1.12 mark which has been the region for some time last week. The market is trying to break the EUR/USD in the midst of the weakened dollar. At the same time, the market aims to stabilize the current rates but there were not enough support from the administration and economic policy changes and the reports of the economic data.

Although, a majority of the support for the currency supported from the economic data or the administration and at the same time influence the next Fed rate hike. However, it seems that the wage earnings reports are on the lows which could delay the rate hike process. This would put more pressure to the dollar today and this whole week and it is still uncertain until when the dollar rates would hold.

As for today, there will be no major economic news from the Euro or from U.S. regions. It is expected for the price to EUR/USD to remain in consolidation with a bullish bias with chances of a breakout near the 1.0800 level.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 6, 2017

The Kiwi against greenback declined on Friday's trading session. A strong support was found at 0.7250 level but was able to reverse the trend after forming a bullish candle while the resistance is found at 0.7350 level. If the price breaks higher than the psychological levels which will then result to a decline to the 0.71 level. Traders should expect high volatility in the market. Hence, fluctuations and rough trading for the pair.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 6, 2017

The pair USD/CAD surged on Friday's trading session. It turned around finding a resistance towards the 1.30 level. The price could set into a new fresh low and this could further go down. However, if the price breaks higher than the candle pattern formed on Friday's session, there could be chances for buying opportunities. Traders should monitor the oil market as it has an influence to the Canadian dollar that usually affects the price inversely for the pair.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 7, 2017

   In the past week, the USD/CAD pair has been constantly struggling to hold its own footing in the face of a fast-deteriorating USD value as well as with the recent increase in oil prices. It was the only a matter of time when the currency pair hit the major support barriers of 1.3000, where the currency pair finally saw a reversal in its present trend. The USD/CAD bulls have taken immense advantage of this particular advantage since a lot of them immediately proceeded to defend their 1.3000 region positions.

   However, since the value of the USD continued to be consistently weak during the past few days particularly against the Japanese yen, and with oil prices dropping during the previous trading session, the USD/CAD pairs again took advantage of this particular event by inducing the pair’s movement to surge by 100 pips within just a couple of hours, and even though the currency pair has finally settled and now trades just below 1.3100, the market’s outlook on the currency pair has completely turned around and a lot of investors are focused on the pair’s possible uptick, with the 1.3000 barrier becoming the determining point for the currency pair’s future movement.

   For today’s trading sessions, the Canadian economy will be releasing its trade balance data and this is expected to inject additional volatility in the USD/CAD pair. However, the currency pair might be in for more ranging and consolidation as the market waits for the pair’s next concrete move.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 7, 2017

Just like the euro, the sterling pound was also unable to capitalize on the pronounced weakness in the value of the USD even though the NFP report released last Friday disappointed a lot of investors and helped sustain the downward pressure on the US dollar. Under normal circumstances, other major currencies such as the euro and the GBP would have been able to increase their respective values as a response to the USD’s weakness, but then again both currencies are faced with their separate set of problems, from the UK’s impending Article 50 invocation and the Brexit process and the EU’s increasing political tension due to the upcoming French national elections. This has then caused the GBP/USD to drop further in value immediately after the release of the NFP report and has been unable to go past 1.2500 in the past 24 hours.

The sterling pound is expected to remain under immense pressure since the Brexit process is now starting to be implemented albeit slowly, and as May’s plans begin to take shape, a slew of various concerns and other such uncertainties are also expected to come through and put significant pressure on the value of the sterling pound up until the near future. The GBP/USD pair has not made any significant progress in the past trading sessions, and this is expected to remain to be the pair’s short-term outlook.

Since there are no major economic data coming out from both the US and the UK for today, the GBP/USD pair would most probably continue its ranging and consolidation activity with bearish undertones. Market players are advised to monitor the 1.2400 range since the pair could possibly reach 1.2300 if the pair manages to break within this range. Conversely, the 1.2500 should also be closely monitored by investors.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 7, 2017

The EUR/USD pair maintained its ranging and consolidation activity with a range of 100 pips after it was unable to make a clean break on either sides of the chart. The USD had a weak trading activity yesterday after the NFP report disappointed the majority of investors and erased hopes of the Fed hiking up its interest rates in the near future. This, along with immigration-related problems surrounding the Trump administration has been very vital in affecting the weakening value of the US dollar.

Market analysts had been saying during the past sessions that the EUR/USD pair would continue consolidating unless it manages to go beyond 1.0800 since this will be the only time that the EUR/USD would be making substantial progress. In the past 24 hours, both the US and the European Union were facing their own problems, from Trump’s immigration policies and the Eurozone’s increasing political tension especially with the impending French national elections, with some French parties stating their plans to separate France from the EU once they get in power. This is why the EUR was unable to take advantage of the dollar weakness which could have made some large-scale gains given a wholly different political atmosphere.

There are no major news releases expected to come out from the EU today so the EUR/USD would most likely continue its ranging and consolidation trend for today. The euro would most likely continue to remain stagnant until such time that it manages to make a clean break through 1.0800 points.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The NZD/USD continued to move through the rising channel yesterday. The NZD traded on its recent highs and stayed on top of the 0.7300 level throughout the day.

The 4-hour chart mentioned that the pair rebounded to the 50-EMA and kept intact overhead the moving averages. The MAs (50, 100 and 200) maneuvered an upward direction as shown in the aforesaid chart. Resistance touched 0.7350 region, support pierced 0.7300.

MACD histogram is bullish. It further hovered within the positive zone. RSI continually sits around the overvalued territory.

A bullish outlook dominated on Monday with a primary target 0.7350. A break in the 0.7350 mark generates a possible extension towards 0.7400 range.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The British currency continued to gain losses on Monday on the back of BoE’s no rush decision regarding rate hikes coupled with the Inflation Report since the previous week

The sterling had a mixed trades yesterday. Moreover, the GBP/USD weakened during the morning trades and continued to move downwards.

A renewed buying interest occurred amid opening of EU trades which further provided support to the spot. The cable got a stable position throughout the European session and hold a few pips under the region 1.2500 prior to the onset of NA trading. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price drove the 50-EMA lower and hovered on top of 200 and 100 EMAs. The 100-EMA is moving northbound while the 50 and 200-EMAs stayed in the neutral stance mentioned in the same timeframe. Resistance is at 1.2500, support sits close the 1.2400 handle.

The MACD approached the negative zone, sustaining this position would indicate a stronger position for the sellers. RSI is confined around the oversold area near the neutral readings.

In spite of the decline that recently occurred, the bullish trend was able to maintain its progress. A close under the mark 1.2500 would signal a renewed bearish outlook and has the possibility to advance towards 1.2400 hurdle. Contrarily, a close on top of 1.2500 would retake a bullish sentiment to the cable pair. The spot is possible to recover in the short-term 1.2600.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The greenbacks brought an impact against the single European currency on Monday. The EUR/USD softened on the back of US recovery following a recent sell-off. Meanwhile, the euro take no attention towards the upbeat figures of the German Factory Orders.

The EUR came in negative subsequent to Monday opening. In case, a break on top of the 1.0800 mark backslid, a profit-taking could take place which would push the spot downwards. The price rebounded the 1.0800 barrier and reached 1.0750 amid EU session.

Sellers were able to resume its gains throughout the North American session. According to the 4-hour chart, the pair tested the 50-EMA. All moving averages (50, 100 and 200) seems bullish. Resistance is found at 1.0750 level, support entered 1.0700 region.

The MACD declined which confirmed weak buyer’s position. RSI moved southward after it departed from the overvalued territory

Technicals manifested a near-term bearish picture and fixate at 1.0700. The 1.0650 support region emerge after the level broke. A break down to 1.0650 could sway an unfavorable market sentiment. However, a positive outlook can be sustained upon a break lower than the aforementioned predetermined level.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The U.S. dollar surged paired against the Canadian dollar on Monday’s trading session as it climbed up to 1.31 handle. The price turned around heading downward from 1.3387 level after it climbed from 1.2968 level which is a form of consolidation for the price. If the price was able to stay below the said level, this signals the downtrend to continue towards the 1.2800 mark.

The uptrend will most likely continue for some time particularly in the short term. The current psychological levels brings a strong support and if the market is able to break below this, the outcome would not be favorable for the greenback. Hence, traders should expect high volatility in the market.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The Euro against the British Pound declined on Monday. Despite the downfall, the price enough support in the 50-EMA to recover the price trend giving a positive outlook. If the market is able to break higher than the candle formed in the trading session, the price could move again in the upside. Short-term pullbacks may be used as buying opportunities that may switched to a bullish pressure in the market later on. The next target of buyers will be at 0.8850 level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 7, 2017

The Australian dollar declined on Monday’s trading session in a high volatility market. There seems to be a strong support found below with buying opportunities close to the 0.76 handle. The price moves in an uptrend which seems to be overextended for some time. The pullback may influenced a strong offer of the price for traders that are willing to buy. The Resistance level is seen at 0.7750 mark while current support level could further decline towards the 0.75 and lower.

February 7, 2017

Indonesia Economy Rose to 5.02%

The Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia beefed up by 5.02 percent in 2016 versus 4.88 percent in 2015 based on the report of Central Statistics Agency (BPS) released on Monday. However, the Austronesian nation declined during the Q4 with a year-over-year decrease in GDP by 4.94 percent with the previous 5.02 percent in Q3.

The chief of BPS, Suhariyanto mentioned the government expenditure also dropped to 4.05 percent during the fourth quarter of 2016 followed by a budget curtailment which causes for a slower annual percentage compared with the same quarter in 2015 with an increase of 7.12 percent.

The adjusted public spending regarded as being caused by austerity measures led by the administration of Joko “Jokowi” Widodo with an estimated Rp 137 trillion (US$10.27 billion) trimmed budget.

Furthermore, the figures for imports and exports grew slower with 1.74 percent only while 2.27 percent in 2016 accordingly. Investments mounted to 4.48 percent in the previous year.

The household consumption of Indonesia is considered the largest factor for the country’s GDP reaching 56 percent within the total percentage, the increase is approximately 5.01 percent.

February 7, 2017

Asian Stocks Drop after JPY Haven Demand Surge

Asian equities experienced a decline following a JPY rally after the demand for the safe haven currency increased following various concerns surrounding political events worldwide. The Japanese Topix index decreased after a three-day high as the JPY recorded its highest value since November 2016 last Monday. This recent rally in equities caused by Trump’s policies have started to weaken as most investors are now worried with how the Trump administration plans to balance out its proposed tax cuts and added spending with its protectionist stance on international trade. Adding to risk are some EU countries where anti-establishment organizations are now gaining fuel prior to their respective national elections.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 8, 2017

The market has been experiencing a lot of volatility recently due to the pronounced weakness of most major currencies, with traders having a hard time picking out definite directions, with profits going from positive to negative in just a matter of minutes. During yesterday’s session, the USD was able to regain the majority of losses against the EUR, with the EUR/USD pair falling down to 1.0700 points. For a brief moment it looked like that this particular stance of the currency pair would remain standing and would eventually become overpowered by the dollar’s strength but the following day saw the dollar losing its ground and dropping back to its previous lows. There is basically a surrounding fear and marked uncertainty felt within the market right now that all currencies are very weak, which has resulted in this very rare price action.

There are no major news data expected to be released from either the European Union or the US today, and this means more ranging and consolidation activity for the EUR/USD pair. This is generally okay for day traders but could spell disaster for long-term traders as they become hard pressed to find direction in this very chaotic market environment.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 8, 2017

The GBP/USD had no definite direction during the past trading sessions, just like other major currency pairs. The sterling pound is starting to regain its footing and could be well on its way to recovery, but then again the USD is also reclaiming its losses making the currency pair drop in value and could give investors a hard time with regards to trading with this particular pair. This might be beneficial for day traders, but long-term traders might find it problematic with regards to selecting a definite course of action now that the market has no clear direction.

The GBP/USD has already plummeted by 140 pips during the past 24 hours and has managed to reclaim the entirety of its losses as well, which is what usually happens when both currencies in a currency pair are weak enough to warrant difficulties with regards to the pair’s overall progress. This is also one of the reasons why the GBP/USD has been wildly careening up and down during the past few days while consolidating just below 1.2500 points. Now that the pair has already managed to go past 1.2500, it could be subject to more consolidation due to the lack of any significant news releases from both the UK and the US.

The pair is expected to exhibit more consolidation with bearish undertones today as there are no major economic data releases from both regions. Traders are advised to tread carefully with regards to transacting with this pair.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 8, 2017

The USD/CAD pair increased in value for the second this day this week after the currency pair’s bulls finally took control after a week-long struggle with the bears who were threatening to put downward pressure on the pair and push it even lower than 1.3000 points. Market analysts had been previously saying that the 1.3000 region is a make or break point for both bulls and bears, and once the pair surpasses this barrier the bears would have full control of the USD/CAD pair and a shift in the pair’s trend will occur.

This forecast fortunately did not come into fruition as the bulls took hold of the pair and is now inducing the pair to go higher and higher as we speak. The recent drop in oil prices also did some good for the currency pair’s movement, which was largely due to the recent oil production cut agreement, and since the Canadian economy is hugely reliant on oil prices, a drop in oil prices automatically translates to a weaker Canadian dollar, and this is why the USD/CAD has been inching consistently higher during these past trading sessions and could possibly reach 1.3200 if this trend continues.

There are no major economic news releases from Canada scheduled to be released today, but the US will be releasing its oil inventory data which will be closely monitored by investors as this might cause the CAD to further weaken once it exhibits an additional build-up on its data.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 8, 2017

The decline in crude oil prices weighed on the Canadian dollar while the stronger US dollar added pressure to push the loonie downwards.

The USDCAD resumed a short-term uptrend on Tuesday. Moreover, the USD came in green against its Canadian peer. The spot gradually increased overnight reaching 1.3120 level prior to opening of the European session. There is a renewed buying pressure within the greens which supported the pair towards its fresh highs. The price spiked and touched 1.3190 region in the post-EU open.

The barrier restricted its developement as it holds the major enclosed the region. The price drove the 100 and 50-EMAs higher as shown in the 4-hour chart. The pair nearly reached the 200-EMA which became the resistance. Furthermore, the 50 and 100 EMAs shifted to an upward trend while 200-EMA headed lower. Resistance entered 1.3190 area, support holds 1.3120 handle.

The MACD approached the positive territory, preserving this area would mean a stronger stance for the buyers. RSI hovered around the overvalued range indicating another upward trajectory.

It is projected that a near-term bullish momentum will return. In order to resumed this bullishness, the pair should focus on top of 1.3190 mark.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 8, 2017

The United Kingdom released Halifax House Prices and Like-For-Like Retail Sales by which both indices published negative results. Likewise, Brexit issues further affected the major.

The sterling weakened in spite of broad strengthening of the US dollar yesterday. The GBPUSD rebounded in the 1.2500 during the morning trades and continued to decline under 1.2400 region in the EU hours. Sellers drove the price downwards amid post-opening London session en route 1.2300.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price lead the 100 and 50-EMA towards a lower direction and further tested the 200-day moving averages. The 50-EMA moved lower while the 100-EMA directed upwards and the 200-EMA sits in the neutral territory. Resistance touched 1.2400, support entered 1.2300 region. MACD grew weaker which favored strength for the sellers. RSI hovered in the oversold zone and ployed downwards.

It can also be seen in the 4-hour chart that the price preserved its bearish sentiment. If the pair focuses below 1.2400 support, the spot resumed a short-term downward momentum. The next probable target of the sellers is 1.2300.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 8, 2017

The negative result of German Industrial Production weighed against the euro. The wide-ranging US recovery further affected the single European currency.

The market appeared to be bearish yesterday. The EURUSD kept intact in the pressured area throughout the trading day. The EUR was removed from the 1.0750 level during the daily open and resumed its decline towards 1.0700 region.

Sellers was able to broke the region amid EU hours. Bears continuously drove the price downwards within the day and tested mark 1.0650 in the middle session of Europe.

Having touched the aforesaid mark, the downward momentum weakened causing the spot to make a reversal. The pair lead the 100 and 50-EMAs lower as mentioned in the 4-hour chart. The price extend its development on top of the 200-EMA subsequently. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200) headed upwards based on the same timeframe. Resistance highlighted 1.0700, support jump in at 1.0650.

The MACD histogram is in the negative territory, maintaining this position would provide strength for the sellers. RSI moved southwards following an escape within the neutral readings.

Another bearish outlook is expected to prevail. It is also possible to consider another downward movement in the 1.0650 level, en route 1.0600.