Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 31, 2017

The UK calendar seems empty on Monday as the markets fixate on the Bank of England on Wednesday.

The GBPUSD break higher as the new week starts. The spot plunge towards 1.2600 as the price found a decent hurdle. The Cable rebounded through the barrier and turned lower in the opening which closed the bullish gap. The spot kept pressured around 1.2500 amid EU hours, however, did not make it regain the level. The sterling pound stayed overhead of the moving averages as shown in the 4-hour chart. Moreover, the 100-EMA crossed above the 200-EMA. The 100 and 50-EMAs ployed northbound while the 200-EMA appeared to be neutral-bearish. Resistance touched 1.2600 level, support sits in 1.2500 handle.

The MACD histogram fell off which signaled weak position against the buyers. The RSI indicator departed from the overvalued area and pointed southbound.

The technicals prefer a downside movement. If the 1.2500 level gapped lower it will direct the cable pair to 1.2400.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 31, 2017

The single European currency takes no attention to the upbeat of Spain’s GDP and it continued to weaken on Monday. The markets await for the impending meeting of the ECB while there are speculations the Consumer Price Index would be in the green.

The EURUSD break upwards in the daily open yesterday. The price reaches the region 1.0700 up to 1.0740 amid Asian hours.

The negative stance of the dollar was reversed as the Asian session took place. Bullish investors were unable to resume their gains as they decided to give way to the sellers. While the bears managed to lead the spot towards 1.0700. Before the opening of the New York trades, a renewed selling interest developed.

The pair made an even break downwards and touched 1.0650 level. The price pushed the 50-EMA lower while the 100-EMA was tested as indicated in the 4-hour chart during the middle session of Europe. The 100 and 50-EMA directed upwards, 200-EMA is flat. Resistance is mentioned at 1.0700 region, support is shown at 1.0650 handle.

The MACD lies at the middle point. Should the indicator arrive in the positive zone will indicate added strength for the buyers, however, an entry through the negative territory will signal seller’s ability to dominate the market. RSI comes in the neutral zone, en route southwards.

It is recommended for the 1.0750 resistance to test again prior to the pair’s rally as it approaches 1.8000 range. But the spot might change and it becomes bearish for this moment. If the price focuses on the mark below 1.0650, the 1.0550 level is possible to open.

January 31, 2017
Positive Outlook on Japan’s Economic Growth Forecast caused BOJ to Maintain its Policy
The Bank of Japan adjusted higher its economic forecast on Tuesday. However, the monetary policy remained the same which is already anticipated. The GDP forecast for the year increased by 14% from 1.0% in October for this fiscal year. Its economic forecast was raised by 1.5% from 1.3% for this year and 1.1 percent from 0.9% in the following fiscal year. Alongside, the inflation of 2% is anticipated to increase as well for the fiscal year in 2018 since the medium to long-term inflation expectations has a positive outlook and halts is recent decline.

The Labor market is also doing well with rates tightening and the downtrend of the commodity prices is pushed higher by the increase in demand for International commodity prices. The currency yield-curve policy control approved on later September meeting of the central bank is expected to maintain its current stand despite the uncertainty brought by the new U.S. administration as one of their top trading trading partner.

Janury 31, 2017

Germany Oust China as the World’s Largest Exporter

Based on the report of Ifo Research Institute, the trade surplus account of Germany broke its own record of $297 billion last 2016, the figures beat China’s maximum which made Germany become the richest exporter worldwide. The total output is equal to 8.6 percent breaking the projected 6 percent of the European Commission. In 2015, the country’s current account is about $271 billion.

Moreover, the EU executive together with the United States advises the highly populated European country to improve imports as well as the domestic demand as a means to lessen the imbalances in the global economy along with the international increase in fuel involves the euro region. However, Germany ignored this statement, claiming that the domestic demand boosted with the aid of the introduction of the minimum wage in 2015. The increase in state pensions last year also supported the economic aggregate spending. Moreover, the China’s surplus in 2016 is approximately $245 billion because of depleted exports according on the statistics from the Munich-based think tank.

On the other hand, Sigmar Gabriel, the 57-year old Vice Chancellor, mentioned that Germany’s current account is possible to decline for 2017 due to uncertainties within the global trade.

January 31, 2017

European Equities Fall as Trump’s Trade Plans Unravel

European stocks plummeted on Monday after investors assessed the possible implications of President Trump’s recent immigration ban in the US, particularly the possibility of political unrest and fallout as a result of the said ban. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index saw losses in the mining, energy, and banking sector, with the benchmark dropping down by 1.1%. Meanwhile, Greek stocks experienced the largest drop in the western European market as a result of concerns regarding Greece’s bailout dues. In general, the international market is alarmed that Trump might soon implement isolationist policies after implementing his ban on Islamic nations.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 2, 2017

The USD/CAD pair was subject to a lot of pressure during the past trading sessions, majority of this pressure caused by Trump’s implementing policies on trade, immigration, and currencies which has led to a large of number of market players into thinking that Trump’s onslaught of policies might soon lead to a trade and currency war against other major economies.

Trump’s movements has not boded well for the US dollar after the dollar weakened significantly across the board and has caused the USD/CAD to experience a slight reversion at 1.3100 as a result of highly positive employment readings for the region. However, this bounce in the pair diffused quickly as the announcement from the FOMC was unable to induce some positivity within the market, causing a USD sell-off and has caused the USD/CAD to retreat back to 1.3000 and is currently trading weakly just under this particular region. The areas of 1.2960 and 1.3000 has recently been tagged as a highly critical support region and the currency pair might experience a major trend change if the pair manages to break cleanly through this region, and with the pair nearing this range, traders are advised to closely watch the subsequent movements of the currency pair.

There are no major economic readings to be released from both Canada and US for today, although the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data. The weakness in the dollar is expected to continue for today and could cause the USD/CAD to continuously consolidate while the market waits for the readings of the NFP report which is scheduled to be released tomorrow.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 2, 2017

The EUR/USD pair’s strong stance for the whole month of January was mostly due to dollar weakness as a result of Trump’s recent policies and brash sentiments which has affected the country’s economy. The market initially had a positive outlook for the US dollar after the Fed hinted at additional rate hikes in the coming months, however they failed to consider the Trump administration’s ability to have a major effect on the world economy.

Immediately after Donald Trump assumed office, his administration already made on good on his campaign policies such as building a Mexican border wall and implementing an immigration ban in the US, which has sparked outrage among several world leaders and US citizens. His team also made major changes in Obamacare and has also proceeded to ban immigrants from certain Muslim countries. This has caused widespread concern in the market and has led to dollar sell-offs and has enabled the EUR/USD pair to close down the month of January near the critical resistance barrier of 1.0800 points.

For the month of February, there is an expected onslaught of major economic data to be released which includes the FOMC minutes meeting and the NFP data from the US, but the market is most likely to put more emphasis on Trump’s governance and his future implementing policies. The euro might eventually crack and plummet once the dollar regains its footing and starts going back up, with the euro possibly returning to its monthly lows last December.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 2, 2017

The GBP/USD pair had a generally good run for January in spite of the fact that the Trump administration has begun to take its reins in the US economy and started implementing policies which has adversely affected the market and the international economy as well. This has then resulted to a major sell-off in the USD which has helped in boosting the value of the GBP/USD pair. This particular currency pair is also the only pair which has increased in value due to the pound strength, making it very attractive for the pound bulls.

Theresa May has also finally clarified her stance and point of action for the Brexit process and has also stated that the UK will be exiting completely from the Eurozone in order to establish a completely different trade relationship with the region. In addition, the SC has also ruled that the invocation of the Article 50 must first undergo deliberation and approval by the Parliament excluding Scotland, Wales, and Ireland, which lended support for the currency pair and induced it to climb up to 1.2650 points.

For the month of February, market players will be mainly focusing on the movement of the USD as the Trump administration implement more policies. But this does not mean that the market will be focusing less on Brexit, since the UK government will finally be carrying out its plans for the nation. But there is still a major sell-off expected in the GBP/USD pair since there is still the lingering Brexit process in spite of the highly positive economic data coming from the US.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The Bank of New Zealand disclosed a mixed data as of yesterday. Meanwhile, the Jobless Rate came in negative. The Employment Change matched the expectations and the Participation Rate increased. The bulls continued to handle the market. The NZD continued to reverse its Tuesday’s low seen at 0.7250 and made a minor reversal in the mid-EU session. The spot nearly touched 0.7300 upon the easing of buying pressure. The price rebounded in the 100-EMA shown in the 1-hour chart. The spot is sandwiched between the 50 and 100-EMAS. The moving averages preserved its bullishness mentioned in the same chart.

Resistance is at 0.7300, support is at 0.7250 range. The MACD is trading on the upside. The RSI lies around the neutral territory. According to the 4-hour chart, a bullish sentiment dominated the market. A break on top of 0.7300 would suggests an increase through 0.7350.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The Manufacturing PMI of the United Kingdom met its projected result where the British currency got some support. The sterling successfully removes its losses yesterday. The bullish trend currently reigns over the market.

The buyers found a hurdle around the 1.2600 level and retreated amid Asian hours. The GBP/USD keep moving closer to 1.2600 region prior to the London opening. The buyers were able to push the barrier throughout the middle session of the European hours and resumed its bullishness eventually. The Cable remain to develop on top of the moving averages indicated in the 4-hour chart. The 100-EMA cross the 200-EMA in an up direction. The 100 and 50-EMAs preserved their bullish pattern while 200-EMA kept a bearish-neutral stance. Resistance touched 1.2700, support lies at 1.2600.

The MACD histogram is situated in the centerline. If the indicator approaches the negative zone, it will imply added strength for the sellers while an entry towards the positive territory will signal buyers ability to manage the market in general. RSI proceeds in the overvalued area.

The pair is possible to move near the 1.2700 mark .

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The American dollar remained in the pressured area on the back of the remarks made by the trade advisor of D.Trump, accusing the countries China, Germany and Japan about exploitation over undervalued currencies.

Moreover, the single European currency obtained support from the positive figures of inflation within the euro region. The investors currently awaits for the Fed meeting.

The ascending trend of EURUSD remained unchanged on Wednesday. The euro kept intact versus its U.S rival following the rally during the morning trades on Tuesday. The buyers have consolidated their gains as it grasp the spot in the flat trend under the level 1.0800. The price pushed the 50-EMA towards a higher point as seen in the 4-hour chart. The spot is confined overhead the moving averages. The 50 and 100-EMAs preserved a bullish stance while 200-EMA was in the flat lining. Resistance approached 1.0800, support hit 1.0750 mark.

The MACD increased which signaled buyer’s strength. RSI stayed in the overvalued territory after it left the neutral zone.

The bulls were able to lead the overall mark. We will impose a buy order in case the pair made a breakout near the 1.8000 resistance level. A close on top of the barrier will generate gain through 1.07500. Furthermore, the hawkish comments of Yellen could possibly bring back the sellers to the market. The most possible scenario is a dipped on the lower point of 1.0750.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The GBP/JPY pair broke higher than the Tuesday candle on Wednesday's trading session. This indicates a bullish tone for the pair after breaking above the hammer pattern on Tuesday implying for the price to move higher while a strong resistance is found at 145 handle. Hence, it is possible for the price to fall which would be a buying opportunity in the short-term charts. If the price breaks higher than the current psychological level, the price could further go up towards the 148 handle. On the other hand, it may not be favorable for selling the pair since the 140 level sits as a support level.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The greenback surged against loonies on Wednesday's trading session as the price hovers looking for psychological levels. If the price was able to break higher than the range for the day, the next price could reach to 1.32 handle. However, a breakdown lower than the 1.30 level is not a good sign moreover, if the price breaks even lower than the Tuesday range. Traders should monitor the oil market as it has an inverse correlation for the pair and will have an impact to the Canadian dollar.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The EUR/GBP pair broke lower on Wednesday’s trading session eliminating the bottom of the shooting star on Tuesday. If the price trend breaks at the 0.85 handle, giving signs of support that makes it a substantial price level for this pair. However, if the price breaks much lower at 0.8450 level, this signals the price to further go down. On the other hand, if the price rebounded or formed a supportive candle instead, then this could lead to consolidation of the price to toggle within a tight range.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The USD/JPY pair was still under pressure on Wednesday's Trading session after the greenback weakened against the yen on Tuesday. Overnight, the price stayed at 113.60 level prior the opening of European trading session. However, later during the mid trading session, a new selling pressure drove the price towards the 113.00 level. Bulls are fighting over it as they try to pull the positions higher than the 113.00 handle. The Resistance level is found at 114.00 while the Support level comes in at 113.00.

In the charts, the price maintained low in the 50-, 100- and 200-EMAs. The Moving Averages moves lower in the same charts. The MACD entered the negative zone and will most likely stay for some time as the sellers dominate the market. The RSI stayed in the Oversold territory making the price open to a new high.

The pair maintained its strong bearish tone open for new risks to go lower. It is probable to open for new lows while it is favorable for the price to drop lower than the 113.00 level. The next target of sellers is at 112.00 handle.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

The market has been generally expecting the USD/CAD pair to undergo a period of ranging and consolidation as the US prepares to release its NFP report, and this was what happened with this particular currency pair during the past trading sessions. The USD/CAD is currently trading at over 1.3000 and is headed in a generally disappointing trading streak, but then again this region has strong support barriers, and this region might be a good place for traders to go long with a stop loss.

Oil prices have already settled down last month and has exhibited little activity on both directions. As a result, the Canadian dollar was able to obtain some support and the economic data scheduled to be released from Canada are also expected to be generally positive, and there are no major changes expected to occur within the Canadian economy. The drop in the value of the USD/CAD was mainly due to the weakness of the dollar, and once Trump makes major changes in the NAFTA agreement, then the trade relationship between US and Canada could be up for some major adjustments. This has no positive effect on both economies whatsoever, and this uncertainty has been fueling the drop in the value of the currency pair.

There are no major news expected to be released from the Canadian economy today but the market is expecting the release of the NFP report as well as the average earnings data and the non-manufacturing PMI data from the US. If these data comes out as positive, then this could further affirm an interest rate hike from the Fed in the near future, but a weak reading could cause the USD to further decrease in value.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2500 points after briefly reaching 1.2700 points after traders took sell opportunities every time the GBP/USD exhibited reversions. The Bank of England released its statement yesterday and maintained its current rates as expected, while the monetary policy meetings and inflation reports did not deliver anything significant to the economy and did not induce any market activity. However, these neutral readings had adversely affected the currency pair since the majority of market players were expecting hawkish comments from the BoE as well as from the inflation reports, but since both of these data came out as neutral, the market was generally disappointed and this put a significant amount of downward pressure on the value of the sterling pound. However, it was a good thing that the dollar was weak, since if the dollar were stronger then the pound might sink even lower.

The pound is expected to continue its losing streak, and any reversions are expected to be met with major sell-offs, especially with the oncoming volatility which will be caused by the implementation of the Brexit process. For today’s session, UK will be releasing its services PMI data and US will be releasing its NFP reports and wage earnings data. These string of economic readings set to be released today are expected to increase the pair’s volatility. The market is expecting a positive US labor report, and if this happens, then the GBP/USD pair might be able to break through 1.2500 and move further towards 1.2400 points.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017

The EUR/USD pair has been subject to a lot of messy trading activity during the past trading sessions as the pair had no definite direction and generally exhibited an uncertain trading stance. The currency pair has been vainly trying to break through the 1.0800 trading range and briefly made it through this barrier and even reached up to 1.0828 points but eventually reverted back to its original stance after a massive sell-off met the pair, causing it to fall back to 1.0800 and even went as low as just over 1.0760 points.

Today is the scheduled release date of the NFP report from the US, and the market volatility is expected to surge as this particular report is one of the major economic reports anticipated by the markets every month. The NFP report now is even more crucial than ever, because the Fed has previously stated that the central bank will be relying on positive economic data as basis for whether they will be hiking interest rates in the future or otherwise. In addition, the release of the NFP report is equally important to restore investor and trader confidence in the USD, especially since the past few days has seen the dollar subject to more weakness as Trump drew negative comments from his recently implemented foreign policies such as the immigration ban. This is one of the reasons why the general direction of the EUR/USD remains uncertain since the market wants first to confirm the results of the NFP report before making any concrete moves.

For today’s session, US will be releasing its NFP report as well as the non-manufacturing PMI data and average wage earnings data. Investors are hoping that these economic data comes out as positive in order to induce some strength in the ever-weakening stance of the US dollar.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017
The USDCAD presented a downbeat data on Thursday. Sellers were able to pushed the spot downwards over the night. The pair moves beyond the area 1.3050 and proceeds in the 1.2980 handle where the greens established a decent support. Having reached the level, the pair rebounded and made a gradual increase. Moreover, the price hovered down the moving averages shown in the 4-hour chart. The 50-EMA had an upward crossover towards the 100-EMA. Moving averages preserved a bearish stance mentioned within the same chart. Resistance is seen at 1.3050, support sits at 1.2980. MACD histogram grew which provided strength for the sellers. RSI is confined in the oversold zone following its escape from the neutral readings.
The market is dominated by a bearish trend. A break in the 1.2980 support may cause for the pair to fall and reach a new level at 1.2910.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017

The Bank of England remained steady at 0.25% as of the previous day. The decision made by the regulators weakened the British currency while the pessimistic data from the PMI Construction further created more pressure.

The strengthening of the greenbacks felt across the board which provided support for the GBP/USD to attain a renewed multi-month highs last Wednesday.

The Cable resumed its development overnight and found a hurdle in the 1.2700 region and the sterling moves closer to the barrier during the morning trades. On one side, investors supposed that the pair lacks some reason for a hike up. The major had a sharp decline through 1.2600 mark prior to the New York open. The pair is kept intact overhead of the moving averages viewed in the 4-hour chart. The 100 and 50-EMAs moved northbound while 200-EMA was flat. Resistance is at 1.2600, support touched 1.2500. MACD increased which signaled strength for the buyers. RSI stayed around the overvalued territory.

The technicals in the 4-hour chart favored an extension upward. The GBPUSD is expected to preserve its bullishness in order to gain 1.2800 region following the break of 1.2700 level. Failure to post renewed gains could push the pound to endure a short-term bearish correction

through 1.2600 and 1.2500.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017

The single European currency got some support from the decline of Spain’s Unemployment Change and it further benefited from the retracement of US dollar. Investor keeps their focus on Draghi’s announcement took place on Thursday.

The euro came in green versus its U.S rival and resumed its bullishness eventually. Traders drove the price to 1.0800 during the Asian hours and lead the level in the post-EU opening. The price rebounded in the 50-EMA as seen in the 4-hour chart. The EUR/USD progress on top of the moving averages. According to the 4-hour chart, the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs en route upwards. Resistance touched 1.0850, support entered 1.0800. The MACD is viewed as bullish and confined in the positive zone. The RSI consolidated in the overvalued territory and headed higher.

Based on the forecast, the EUR may obtain a bullish momentum granting that it hovered above 1.0800 resistance region. In line with this, the pair could expand its development towards the mark 1.8050. Sellers should lead below the area 1.0700 in to help ease the pressure while the 1.0600 handle manage to control.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017

The Kiwi against greenback trades with high volatility on Thursday trading session. The 0.7350 level stands as a minor resistance but levels below the 0.72 mark also gives support for the pair. For now, it is good to wait on the sidelines until the price breaks higher than the Resistance levels or to drop lower from the support to be more certain which seems about to happen today as the U.S. Nonfarm payrolls are about to be released.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017

The EUR/GBP pair sits atop the 0.85 level that seems to be a strong support to form a bullish candle pattern. This signals the price could further go up which is favorable for buyers but there might be choppiness to linger in the upper channel. It may not be wise to sell the pair with 0.85 and below being a strong support but if the price breaks lower than the 0.8450 level, the pair could reverse and becomes a downtrend.

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: February 3, 2017

The Euppy pair has been on a correction since last month in 2016 inducing high volatility in the market. Most of major economic events affect the Japanese yen with monetary policy statements and policy rates remain the same unlike in Euro. The BOJ is scheduled to have a meeting today which is described to be favorable for the yen against Euro in the succeeding trading days.

The Retails sales report for Euro is expected to have a result as much as 0.03% which is significantly greater than the former -0.04% while the Italian Preliminary CPI is anticipated to incur 0.02% less than the former 0.04%.

There is a high volatility present for the pair ranging between the 122.070 and 120.90 levels with false breakouts implying the uncertainty in the market. This cause indecisiveness even to bulls with impulsiveness of the bears taking over the market as it breaks lower than the 120.90 level. It is anticipated to close lower than the target towards the 118.50 level which is a probable strong support for the price after reaching the 120.90 level.

Despite its fall on Thursday, there seems to have a strong support which is around 120 handle that makes it highly plausible for the buyers to take over again the market. Hence, it is favorable to trade long positions but traders should be cautioned of choppiness in the market. Overall, if the price remains strong within the upper channel, then there would not much be of a problem and keep the pair steadfast.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017

The USD/JPY pair attempted to rally several times during the past week due to the positive feel of the US equity markets as well as its effect on the US carry trade but there was a shortage of buyers which could have fueled an upside follow-through. The USD/JPY pair finished the previous trading session at 112.551 points after dropping by -2.17% or 2.496 points. This movement in the currency pair was largely due to Trump’s comments in the past week as well as statements coming from both the Fed and the BoJ.

The FOMC maintained its current rates last week at 0.50%-0.75% and was generally expected by the majority of market players, but the bearish tone of the USD/JPY pair was also largely influenced by the Fed’s refusal to give out hints with regards to its next interest rate hike.

There are no major news releases coming from either Japan or US for this week, and this means that the market will be affected by events that will have a bearing on the current stance of the US dollar. Currently, Trump is aiming for a weaker USD value in order for him to upgrade his statements with regards to currency devaluations and other unfair trade policies. The charts are indicating that the USD/JPY pair could possibly rise up to 109.919 points if sellers of the pair would be able to put enough pressure on the market to march through 112.00 points.