Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 3, 2021

The British pound gained 63 points yesterday, close to the first target level of 1.3858 (2 March low). Such a breakthrough was necessary for the price to overcome the accumulation of indicator lines, which were strong resistance on Tuesday and Wednesday. And if the overcoming of the resistance took place on a strong impulse, then we are waiting for the price to surpass the nearest level and rise to the second at around 1.3883 - to the embedded line of the growing price channel. Surpassing 1.3883 opens the way to the high target of 1.4004 - this is the point of coincidence of the next line of the price channel with the level of highs on March 12 and 18 and April 20.

On the H4 chart, the price left the wedge-shaped structure upwards. The MACD line is turning up, the Marlin oscillator is growing in the positive trend zone. We are waiting for the pound to rise further.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 6, 2021

Friday's US employment data came out so that both optimists and pessimists were satisfied; in the non-agricultural sector, 235,000 new jobs were created against expectations of 750,000, and the unemployment rate decreased from 5.4% to the projected 5.2%, while the July non-farms were revised up from 943,000 to 1,053,000( +110,000), which probably affected the euro's final insignificant growth by 10 points. Of course, this data will still be further analyzed by market participants and gradually included in prices, but at the current moment, perhaps, a more important event is on the agenda - the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, September 9. The main European bank is expected to signal to the markets that it is time to think hard about tightening monetary policy.

At the moment, the euro is in a convenient range (1.1847-1.1920), in which there have been short-term consolidations since mid-June. The 1.1920 target level seems to be strong, a good external stimulus is necessary to overcome it, which will not happen today due to the holiday in the US (Labor Day).

The price has formed a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour chart, which may return the price to the lower border of the 1.1847-1.1920 range. Perhaps the price will correct even lower, to the MACD line to the 1.1818 mark area, which coincides in price level with the MACD line on the daily scale. After the correction, we expect the euro to continue rising. Target at 1.1975.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 7, 2021

September 7 economic calendar:

In terms of the economic calendar, the third estimate of Europe's GDP in the second quarter has been published today, which can confirm the economic growth of 13.6%. The factor is positive, but it is worth considering that we only have confirmation of the previous assessment. Thus, the market has already taken into account the statistical data in the quote.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 7:

The resistance area of 1.1880/1.1905 continues to put pressure on buyers. This led to a stop of the upward movement and as a result, the first signal of a possible change of direction. The price being kept below 1.1850/1.1860 on a four-hour period will increase the chances of sellers for a subsequent decline towards the range of 1.1800-1.1760.

An alternative scenario of the market development considers an amplitude move along the resistance area.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 7:

The pullback from the resistance level of 1.3880 was replaced by a slight stagnation, while the downward interest still takes place in the market. To strengthen the sell positions, the quote needs to stay below the level of 1.3815, which will automatically lead to a decline towards the level of 1.3800. In this case, an increase in the volume of short positions is possible, which will open the way towards the level of 1.3735.

An alternative scenario of the market development will become relevant if the price is kept above the level of 1.3905. In this case, the upward cycle from 1.3600 is prolonged towards the psychological level of 1.4000.

Short positions or Short means sell positions.
Psychological levels are round values (1.2000, 1.3000, 1.4000, 1.5000, etc.) that serve as key coordinates in the market that traders pay special attention to. These levels are often used as support or resistance.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 8, 2021

The release of yesterday's German and European business sentiment indices for September somewhat deepened the euro correction. The German business sentiment index ZEW fell from 40.4 to 26.5 against the expectation of 30.2, the same index for the euro area fell from 42.7 to 31.1 against the expectation of 35.3. The euro lost 30 points. Investors took the exit somewhat emotionally, even if it failed, leaving in the shadows industrial production growth in Germany by 1.0% in July, GDP growth in the eurozone for the second quarter by 2.2% against the first estimate of 2.0% and employment growth eurozone for the second quarter by 0.7% against the previous estimate of 0.5%. The ZEW indices are still survey indicators, formed against the background of an increase in the incidence in the first half of August, but now the incidence in Germany and in the euro area has sharply declined, which should affect the ZEW indices in a month. Obviously, investors are aware of all these events, and therefore we are waiting for the euro to recover to its original positions by the European Central Bank meeting.

On the daily chart, the price has been rising since the opening of the day, trying to break above the support at 1.1847, which had been pushed through yesterday. Consolidating above it, again defines the target for the price at 1.1920. The Marlin Oscillator is also slowly turning up.

On the four-hour chart, the price reverses without reaching the MACD line. All of yesterday's correction took place above the balance indicator line, which confirms the decline precisely as a corrective decline within the general upward trend.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 9, 2021

Yesterday, the euro deepened its correctional decline. Trading volumes were the highest for the current week, which indicates a significant closing of positions before today's European Central Bank meeting. The consensus forecast of economists boils down to a possible reduction of the PEPP program from 80 to 60 billion euros, but at the same time a small extension of the program itself.

The price reached the support of the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily scale chart, a slight reversal is planned this morning. The Marlin oscillator has slowed its decline as it approaches the border with the downtrend territory. We are waiting for a positive decision from the ECB and the euro to rise to the nearest target level of 1.1920.

The price has settled below both indicator lines on the four-hour scale, the Marlin oscillator is turning to the upside from the negative zone. In the event of a strong fundamental news release, such plunges under the indicator lines are interpreted (after the fact) as false, but a false price exit in itself is a sign of further price growth. To do this, the price must go back above the MACD line, that is, above the level of 1.1847.

American stock indices fell 0.8-0.9%

US President Joe Biden last week announced a new vaccination plan for COVID-19 in the country, including new vaccination rules for federal employees, major employers and medical personnel, in a bid to contain yet another surge in the spread of the coronavirus in the United States.

According to the New York Times, the daily number of new cases of COVID-19 in the United States is on average just below 150 thousand, the proportion of the population vaccinated is 53%.

Traders are closely monitoring the situation with the coronavirus in the country, as it directly affects the plans of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) to roll back anti-crisis measures to support the economy. Recent comments from FRS officials suggest that the US Central Bank intends to begin reducing bond buybacks by the end of this year.

Interactive Brokers analyst Steve Sosnik noted that US stocks are holding near record highs and many investors are worried about the withdrawal of stimulus that has supported the stock market.

The statistics released on Friday showed the acceleration of the growth rate of producer prices in the USA in August to the maximum since November 2010 of 8.3% in annual terms. In July, prices increased by 7.8%, and experts had expected their rise in August by 8.2%. New York Life Investments economist Lauren Goodwin said they continue to see high inflationary pressures. Producer price data speaks in favor of buying stocks in companies, which can pass the growth of their spending onto consumers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average by the close of the market on Friday fell by 271.66 points (0.78%) and amounted to 34607.72 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 fell by 34.7 points (0.77%), that is, to 4458.58 points.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 132.76 points (0.87%) to 15115.49 points.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.2% for the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%.

Apple Inc. share price fell 3.3% by the end of trading on Friday. The company received an order from a federal district judge who was reviewing Epic Games Inc.'s lawsuit to change the rules of the App Store and allow mobile app developers to redirect users to alternative resources to pay for services. The court ruling limits Apple's important source of revenue.

Wells Fargo fell 0.1%. On the eve it became known that the Office of the Comptroller of the Circulation (OCC) fined Wells Fargo $ 250 million due to the fact that the bank has not yet eliminated violations in the mortgage business, revealed back in 2018.

Video game makers rose. Zynga rose 6.3%, Roblox rose 1.8%, Activision Blizzard rose 2%, Electronic Arts rose 2%.

Affirm Holdings Inc., the operator of the online hire-purchase service, jumped 34% on strong quarterly earnings from the company. Affirm's revenue for the fourth financial quarter, which ended in June, amounted to $ 262 million, exceeding the market consensus forecast of $ 224 million. The company's financial statements impressed analysts: the average target price of Affirm shares after the publication of quarterly results rose to $ 109 from $ 97.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 14, 2021

Yesterday, we recommended waiting another day to see whether the price will settle below 1.1802, or will there be an upward reversal from it. The MACD indicator line of the daily scale is located at the level of 1.1802. Yesterday, the price just pierced this line with a lower shadow and closed the day higher. The Marlin Oscillator did not move below the zero line. Today the price may turn upwards. The targets are indicated on the chart: 1.1852, 1.1920.

On the four-hour scale, the price made a false pass under the level of 1.1802, forming a convergence with the Marlin Oscillator. This is a reversal signal. Marlin came close to the border with the territory of the growing trend. Overcoming yesterday's high (1.1817) will be a signal that the price could advance to the first target at 1.1852. But here we will clarify the range of the first target - 1.1852/58, since the MACD line is above, and its breakthrough in the current situation becomes a more important condition for the euro's growth towards the second target of 1.1920.

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 14, 2021

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair decided to try to develop an upward momentum once again over the last week. On the daily chart, the price settled above the MACD indicator line, with the help of the Marlin oscillator, which turned up from the zero line. The growth target of 110.63 is the embedded trend line of the price channel. The stock market is not flat, but is growing: yesterday the S&P 500 added 0.23%, the Nasdaq lost -0.07%.

On the four-hour scale chart, the price settled above the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines, and today, since the opening of the Pacific session, the price turned upward from the MACD line, which formed a reversal pattern. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the zero line. We are waiting for the price to continue rising.

American stock indices fell by 0.5-0.8%

The US stock market closed in the red on Tuesday after rising early in the day on data that inflation in the US was slightly weakening. At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite dropped for the fifth session in a row.

Initially, the market began to rally in relief due to slightly smaller-than-expected price increases, but this data is unlikely to change the intentions of the Federal Reserve to roll back stimulus measures, says Randy Frederick, managing director of Charles Schwab.

Consumer prices (CPI) in the country in August rose by 5.3% compared to the same month last year, the Ministry of Labor said. Thus, inflation has slowed down somewhat compared to the maximum value over the past thirteen years of 5.4%, which was recorded in June and July. The change in the CPI index in August coincided with the average forecast of analysts.

Prices excluding food and energy (Core CPI) increased 0.1% MoM (the smallest increase since February) and 4% YoY. The consensus forecast was for an increase of 0.3% and 4.2%, respectively.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday fell by 292.06 points (0.84%), that is, to 34577.57 points.

The value of Standard & Poor's 500 decreased during the day by 25.68 points (0.57%), amounting to 4468.73 points.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 67.82 points (0.45%), that is, to 15,037.76 points.

Oracle Corp. decreased yesterday by 2.8%. A day earlier, one of the world's largest software companies announced that its revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022 (June-August) increased by 4%. However, it did not live up to the expectations of the experts.

Apple Inc. dropped 1% after the company unveiled a new line of smartphones, the iPhone 13, as part of the annual event. The new iPad and Apple Watch were also shown with a display that seamlessly merges with the body.

Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. plummeted more than 21% after a nutritional supplement maker worsened its financial outlook for the second time in a month.

Sportradar Group AG fell 7.2% at its debut trading to $ 25.05. The Swiss sports performance analytics firm conducted an IPO at $ 27 on the Nasdaq and raised $ 513 million. The IPO was $ 513 million, and the company as a whole was valued at $ 21.07 billion.

Among the Dow Jones components, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (-2%), Caterpillar Inc. (-1.9%) and Chevron Corp. (-1.8%). At the same time, only Microsoft Corp. shares rose in price. (+ 0.9%), Salesforce.com Inc. (+ 0.1%) and Coca-Cola Co. (+ 0.1%).

Intuit Inc. added 2% in price. The software maker that owns tax-processing platform TurboTax has announced its $ 12 billion purchase of marketing firm MailChimp.

Forecast for AUD/USD on September 16, 2021

Yesterday, the Australian dollar closed the day with a white candle of 11 points, piercing the 23.6% Fibonacci level with the lower shadow, that is, having made a false exit below the level. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned upward from the border with the downward trend area. Conditions and signs have been formed for a further rise to the Fibonacci level of 38.2% at the price of 0.7450. Overcoming this level opens the second target of 0.7558 - Fibonacci level 50.0%. The level grid is based on the movement from February 25 to August 20.

The Marlin Oscillator has moved into the growth area on the four-hour chart. The price is heading towards the intermediate resistance on the way to the target of 0.7450 - to the MACD line in the area of 0.7404.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2021

The euro gained 15 points on Wednesday, helped by the ongoing divergence in European and US economic indicators for several weeks. Yesterday, European industrial production growth in July showed an increase of 1.5%, and in the US by 0.4%.

On a daily scale chart, the price is slowly reversing upward from the MACD indicator line. The Marlin Oscillator is moving sideways along the zero line - along the border separating the growing and declining trends. This behavior of the oscillator shows that additional external factors are required to continue the euro's growth. Today, it may be the indicator of retail sales in the United States for the last month - the forecast is negative: -0.8% after reducing by 1.1% in July.

We are waiting for the euro to strengthen with the release of the evening data. The task is to overcome the resistance range of 1.1852/58, which will open the second target at 1.1920.

On the four-hour timescale, the Marlin Oscillator has consolidated in a growing trend zone. The price is currently struggling with the resistance by the balance indicator line, breaking above which will make it easier for the price to prepare for an attack on the target range of 1.1852/58.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 17, 2021

Yesterday, the euro fell 52 points under mysterious circumstances. The euro chose its main movement even before the release of data on retail sales, which had practically no effect on the euro, except that other counter-dollar currencies weakened a little after the European flagship. The euro fell along with gold and US government bonds - gold lost 2.25% in a day, the yield on 5-year bonds rose from 0.799% to 0.840%. The daily trading volume for the euro was the highest in September and August. This is possible only in one case - if investors know for sure about the intention of the Federal Reserve to announce a tightening of QE at the next meeting on September 22nd.

But we will not lay such an assumption on the basis of current forecasts, since harsh statements by central banks can easily reverse technical prerequisites and trends. At the moment, the situation for the euro is completely downward: the price went under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator is going down in the negative zone. If it were not for the upcoming Fed meeting, we would have concluded that a confident movement to the target level of 1.1640 is being formed, but now we will keep silent about this, but note that the price is at the lower border of the consolidation range formed on July 20-26 (1.1750). Therefore, it is very possible that the decline below the indicator lines, and Marlin's departure below the zero line, may eventually turn out to be false - the price may turn upward from this level this time too. We will receive the answer only on Wednesday next week. Today our recommendation is to refrain from trading.

On the four-hour chart, a standard correction occurs after the previous price drop. The MACD line is located high from the price, which creates the preconditions for the formation of a new range (sideways movement) before the Fed meeting.

Analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on September 20

GBP / USD fell strongly on Friday, which opened a good opportunity to take short positions. Sadly, the MACD line was far from zero, so investors had no choice but to ignore the signal.

Today though it is likely that the pair will drop in price as there are not much statistics expected to be published. Thus, it would be best to trade along the trend and bet on a decline.

By afternoon, the market should become calm because the absence of US statistics will force traders to take a wait and see attitude. Data on the housing market will be published, but it is unlikely to affect dollar significantly, although it may partially support it.

For long positions:
Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3730 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3763 (thicker green line on the chart). But it is unlikely to see a huge growth today since there was a massive sell-off during the Asian session. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3701, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3730 and 1.3763.

For short positions:
Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3701 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.3661. The pair may continue the downward trend that started last week. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

The pair could also be sold at 11.3730, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3701 and 1.3661.

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on September 20

EUR / USD fell strongly on Friday, which opened a good opportunity to take short positions. And fortunately it coincided with the MACD line going down from zero, so the price fell just as projected.

Today there will be a report on PPI from Germany, which may show a slowdown for the month of August. If the indicator turns out worse than expected, pressure on risky assets will return. There will also be speeches from ECB members, which may add more pressure to the pair. But by afternoon the market may become calm because the absence of US statistics will force traders to take a wait and see attitude. Data on the housing market will be published, but it is unlikely to affect dollar significantly, although it may partially support it.

For long positions:
Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1742 (green line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1789 (thicker green line on the chart). The pair will climb higher if inflation in Germany exceeds expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1704, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1742 and 1.1789.

For short positions:
Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1704 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1654. A decline will occur if Germany releases a weak inflation report and if the ECB takes a conservative approach on policy tapering. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1742, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1704 and 1.1654.

Bitcoin extends weakness. What to expect in short term?

On Monday, the BTC price reached a low of $45,100. Bitcoin began to drop sharply after it failed to consolidate above the resistance level of $48,800 on Saturday.

On September 20, BTC was trading near the $43,250 mark. Over the past day, it has sunk by 5%. At the same time, the market capitalization fell below $860 billion. Following the decrease of bitcoin, the leading altcoins also incurred significant losses. Ethereum declined by 7% to $3,100, and Cardano shed 9% to $2,170.

Now, crypto traders are focusing their attention on the amendment to Tax Code Section 6050I of the United States. Reportedly, the new Infrastructure Bill aims to extend requirements on cryptocurrencies. If enacted, this bill will require any US person receiving over $10,000 in cryptocurrency to report the sender's personal information, including Social Security Number (SSN), to the authorities within 15 days. Violation of this law entails penalties and even imprisonment for five years.

Apart from that, the rules of section 6050I can apply to miners, wallet developers, and many other players of the crypto market. Such chnages in the US infrastructure plan will deliver a severe blow to BTC, analysts believe.

In addition, in the near future, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plans to check one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Binance, for market manipulation and insider trading. US regulators assume that Binance conducts insider transactions, including trading on customer orders before executing them

As for the long-term forecasts of experts amid recent events in the crypto world, they are think that bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $39,000 during the next rally. The main reason for such an optimistic scenario is a decline in the trading volumes on top-tier cryptocurrency exchanges.

However, if the forecasts do not come true and BTC falls to $39,000, bulls will simply not let it drop lower. In this case, the owners of stablecoins will begin to massively transfer them to BTC amid a possible drop in the asset.

Signs of a new rally in the crypto market appeared last week, when the stablecoin supply reached $120 billion. As a rule, it indicates an upcoming trend change.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 22, 2021

Here are the details of the economic calendar for Sept 21:

Yesterday, the US construction sector statistics were published, where traders saw solid gains.

Details: 12:30 Universal time

- The number of construction permits issued in August rose by 6.0%, with a forecast decline of 1.8%.

- The volume of construction of new homes in August rose by 3.9%, with a growth forecast of 2.0%.

* Construction permits are the absolute number of permits for the construction of new residential buildings issued by state bodies in the reporting month. The U.S. Census Bureau collects this data by sending requests to permitting agencies across the country. The monthly survey sample covers 9,000 permit-issuing points across the country.

The volume of construction of new houses is the absolute number of new housing construction projects that began in the reporting month.
Analysis of trading charts from September 21:

The Euro managed to slightly strengthen its position against the US dollar, pulling back the quote from the level of 1.1700 by about 40 points. The downward interest still takes place among market participants for this very reason, but the pullback was replaced by stagnation.

In this case, traders consider the 1.1700 level as a temporary pivot point when forming a decline.

The trading plan on September 21 considered the possibility of a further downward movement, but the signal for action should have come after the price had kept below the level of 1.1700.

The GBP/USD pair slowed down the decline in the area of 1.3640, where a pullback occurred at the beginning, after stagnation at 1.3640/1.3690. Despite the pound's high level of oversold, market participants are still focused on the decline. This is indicated by a number of technical factors: the absence of correction, the process of deceleration, and an increase in the volume of short positions.

September 22 economic calendar:

Today, everyone is focused on the results of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where the regulator will certainly leave the key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0-0.25%. The most important point is the fate of the quantitative easing program, where if it is announced, a wave of speculation will arise in all markets. In simple words, the US stock market will sharply decline, and the US dollar will strengthen.

A number of events are particularly important ones, so speculation is expected at the time of the press conference. Be cautious.

FOMC meeting results - 18:00 Universal time

FOMC press conference - 18:30 Universal time

Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 22:

Market participants regarded the price movement within the level of 1.1700 as stagnation. Most likely, the information and news background will provoke speculators to new leaps. In this situation, the coordinates 1.1700 and 1.1750 are considered signal levels. The price being kept outside a certain level may indicate a local movement.

To simply put it, trading is carried out on a breakdown of one level or another.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 22:

The oversold level may be ignored by market participants. If the price is kept below the level of 1.3640, a path will open towards the range of 1.3600-1.3571.

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 23, 2021

At yesterday's FOMC Federal Reserve meeting, the dollar index rose 0.27%, the stock market (S&P 500) rose 0.95%, and the USD/JPY pair showed an increase of 0.53% (54 points). The price went above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, but the MACD line has long been transformed into a "skewer" or "spindle" line, on which the price winds up, and its return under the MACD line can occur at any time.

We associate fears and the greatest likelihood of a fall in prices, that is, of a strengthening of the yen, with an unfinished correction in the stock market. Today, as expected, the Chinese company Evergrande will declare insolvency. The issue of restructuring the company's debt is being resolved, the Chinese regulator predicts the bankruptcy of several more companies, but announced the refusal to save them in order to improve the market. But the most important thing is that institutional investors have already left the US stock market and now they themselves predict its fall by 10-20%, also for the recovery of the (now speculative) market at the expense of retail buyers.

The price also broke above the MACD line on the four-hour scale, but the Marlin oscillator shows an intention to turn down, which may lead to the third return of the price under the MACD line in the last 10 days. These places are marked on the graph with gray ovals.

Summary: today is not a definite day for trading. We look forward to the development of events today and tomorrow.

British pound rose after the Bank of England's meeting

The British currency increased following the long-awaited meeting of the Bank of England. The pound received a strong impulse to rise, which it successfully used.

After the meeting of representatives of the Central Bank of England, the pound's price increased. Its growth continued after statements that two representatives of the regulator voted for the early curtailment of government bond purchase programs. It should be noted that before the announcement of the Bank of England's decisions, the pound was trading at 1.3686. After that, it gained 0.7%, reaching the level of 1.3715. On Friday morning, the GBP/USD pair was trading around the level of 1.3720. Analysts believe that the long-term downward trend of the pair began to turn up, breaking through the resistance level of 1.3665 and approaching the support level of 1.3730.

As expected, the Bank of England kept the interest rate at the same level of 0.1%. According to the regulator, it intends to adhere to the current target of buying assets in the amount of 895 billion pounds ($1.22 trillion). The economists said that the last meeting of the Bank of England was quite "hawkish". Such tactics help postpone the deadline for raising rates until the end of the first quarter of 2022.

According to experts, rate expectations during the last few months have not been able to support the pound. The attempt to rally the GBP also failed. Some disagreements in the leadership related to forecasts of high inflation and slow economic growth also worsen the situation. Experts pay attention to the sensitivity of the dynamics of the pound to the data on the labor market, which has not been encouraging lately.

To date, the Bank of England has taken a wait-and-see attitude, preferring to wait for additional information before starting to tighten monetary policy. Many analysts believe that the discussion of issues related to the end of incentives increases the chances of an early curtailment of quantitative easing (QE) programs.

The current situation gives the pound an additional growth impulse. It is steadily gaining momentum, although experts admit the possibility of a pullback. At the moment, the pound, having risen on the wave of the "hawkish" comments of the regulator, is trying to consolidate in the upward trend. Experts summarize that in such a situation, the chances of a further rate increase in 2022 gets high.

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 27, 2021

On Friday, the British pound tried to break above the resistance of the MACD indicator line (the line was pierced by the upper shadow), but under general market pressure it was forced to leave this venture until more favorable circumstances. In case of a positive development of events, with the breakthrough of the MACD line (1.3722), the 1.3888 target will open - the nearest embedded line of the rising price channel. The Marlin Oscillator is still in the downward trend zone, therefore, the observed rise in prices during the Asian session does not mean anything yet, especially since there has been a falling gap since the opening of the market.

Marlin stayed in the growth zone on the four-hour chart, the price is trying to rise above the balance indicator line. This is the first positive sign. To confirm it, the price needs to overcome the resistance of the MACD line in the price area of 1.3745.

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 27, 2021

Over the past three days, the USD/JPY pair has shown strong and confident growth when the price overcame the target level of 110.65. To some extent, this growth was unexpected, but it does not mean that now the market is returning to the strengthening of the dollar, to reaching 111.39 and 112.22.

We estimate the reversal of the pair from the reached level with a further decline to the MACD line to the area of 109.65 with a probability of 70%; confusion in the stock markets, the general tendency for the dollar to weaken in other currency pairs may implement a downward trend scenario for USD/JPY. The Marlin Oscillator is giving an early reversal signal.

The price is trying to return below the target level of 110.65 on the H4 chart, the Marlin Oscillator is sharply turning down from the overbought zone. We are waiting for the development of events.

But on the daily scale, the exit above the MACD line will occur earlier (1.3722), and in order not to happen that the opening of a position will happen on a false breakout of resistance on the daily scale, it is advisable to open a position after a reinforcing signal on H4.

European equity markets closed positive

Olaf Scholz, candidate for the chancellor from the victorious Social Democratic Party (SPD), expressed the hope that the new German government will be formed before Christmas. "We will try to form a government with greens and the Free Democratic Party," he said.

According to the results of the 2017 elections, it took the government 172 days to form a "grand" coalition of the CDU / CSU and the SPD. Elections were held in September, and the coalition agreement was signed on March 12, 2018. Scholz promised that in the case of a government under his leadership, this will not happen.

The British FTSE 100 and the French CAC 40 increased by 0.2%. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX 35 added 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 by the end of trading fell by 0.2% and amounted to 462.42 points.

In Spain, the leaders of growth were the shares of banks, in particular, UniCredit (+ 5%) and IntesaSanpaol, as well as oil producers Tenaris (+ 3.4%), Eni (+ 2.3%) and Saipem (+ 1.7%) ).

Producer prices in Spain in August increased by 18% compared to last year, according to the statistics of the country. Growth rates were at their highest since May 1980. In July, the figure rose by 15.6% in annual terms.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said yesterday that inflation could exceed the ECB's forecasts, but there is little sign of that so far.

Due to the shortage of natural gas supplies in Europe, oil prices are rising, which pushes energy stocks up. BP rose 3.5%, Royal Dutch Shell rose 4.5%, Italian ENI rose 2.3%.

Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc shares jumped 11.3%. The British engineering holding announced the sale of the Spanish aircraft engine manufacturer ITP Aero to a consortium of investors led by investment company Bain Capital Private Equity for 1.7 billion euros. In addition, Rolls-Royce has signed a 30-year contract with the US Air Force.

The value of the German pet store chain Zooplus rose 4.3% after the Swedish private investment company EQT AB made an offer to buy it for 3.36 billion euros.

Swedish office rental IWG rose 4.4% on news that the company is considering dividing and listing one of its New York divisions through a merger with specialized mergers and acquisitions (SPAC).

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 29, 2021

September 29 economic calendar:

Today, the UK's lending market data will be released. And although the number of approved mortgage loans should be reduced from 75.15 thousand to 73.00 thousand, the volume of mortgage lending may increase by 0.5 billion pounds. However, such results will cancel each other out.

Therefore, the fate of the pound will be determined by consumer lending, the volume of which should be reduced by 0.75 billion pounds. Consequently, consumer activity is declining. Nevertheless, it is not the driver of economic growth. It can be seen that the prospects for the pound do not look the best.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 29:

The US dollar strengthened again since the opening of the European session, as a result of which the quote managed to break through the local low (1.1664) of August 20. A confirmation signal about the prolongation of the downward cycle from the beginning of June should arrive when the price is kept below the level of 1.1660 for an H4 period. In this case, there is a chance to further decline towards the level of 1.1600.

An alternative scenario will arise if the quote still fails to stay below the level of 1.1660, which will lead to a natural price rebound.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 29:

The oversold pound does not stop greedy speculators who continue to work on the decline. The quote is rapidly declining, where there is already an attempt to keep the price below the level of 1.3500. If the market maintains the set pace, we should not rule out a decline towards the 1.3450 area. As a result, the oversold status of the British currency will reach the highest level, which will lead to a technical correction.

Analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on September 30

Pound continued the collapse that began a few days ago due to the inability of UK authorities to quickly deal with the fuel crisis that erupted across the country over the weekend. Looking at the chart, there was a single test of 1.3536 that occurred during the time that the MACD line was moving down from zero. It formed a signal to sell in the market, which provoked a 50-pip decline to 1.3487. Obviously, reports on lending and aggregate of the M4 money supply did not help pound in any way, as did the speech of Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey. Expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates later this year also dissipated amid multiple problems in the country.

Today, data on UK GDP may shake the markets, provided that the figure exceeds expectations. Then, in the afternoon, there will be speeches from Fed representatives and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, followed by reports on jobless claims. The data, however, is unlikely to harm dollar even amid poor performance.

For long positions:

Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3467 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the level of 1.3529 (thicker green line on the chart). However, there is little chance of a price increase, given the steep downward move yesterday. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3430, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3467 and 1.3529.

For short positions:

Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3430 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the level of 1.3384. Pressure is likely to continue ahead of the vote on the US national debt ceiling, which is scheduled for today in the Senate. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

The pair could also be sold at 1.3467, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3430 and 1.3384.

Gold comes under pressure from stronger US dollar

The yellow metal has been trading with losses lately. Its recent steep gains have been trimmed, and new victories are not in sight. However, experts of the precious metals market are optimistic about the long-term future of Gold

The precious metal closed September with a 3.4% decline. According to analysts, this is the first significant drop in the value of gold since June this year. Its attempts to gain momentum are unsuccessful, although it does not give up. As of October 1, the XAU/USD pair is trading at $1,752.22, showing a slight upward trend. At the same time, the price of the COMEX gold futures for December delivery traded on the New York Stock Exchange fell by 0.25% to $1,725.75 per troy ounce.

Experts consider the stronger US currency to be an obstacle to an increase in the precious metal. The greenback has grown steadily over the past several trading sessions, thus taking the lead. This hindered the growth of gold, in which investors preferred to invest in the third quarter of 2021. Notably, during that period, market participants expressed concerns about the spread of the new Delta COVID-19 variant. Against this background, the demand for defensive assets increased sharply, primarily for the yellow metal. However, at the end of the summer, the dynamics of the asset became sluggish. In July, gold added 2.3%. In August, the precious metal rose by 0.3%. In September, it dropped by 3.4%. According to analysts, the September decline was the first since the beginning of this summer. As a result, gold lost 0.8% in the third quarter of 2021. Since the beginning of this year, it has fallen by more than 7.8%.

The key factor determining the dynamics of the precious metal in September is still the US dollar's rate. In early autumn, the greenback was trading under pressure from expectations of further changes in the Fed's monetary policy. Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the regulator would probably phase out its stimulus programs, while some of his comments were hawkish in nature. The fact that the Fed was close to tapering its support measures supported the US dollar, experts emphasize.

The current high rate of the US currency lowered the demand for the precious metal among investors. At the same time, the situation in the precious metals market sometimes changed dramatically. Earlier, the yellow metal showed an inverse correlation with the greenback. However, in the current year and in late 2020, there were times when the dynamics of these assets were synchronized. Lately, experts have recorded an inverse correlation when the stronger greenback exerted pressure on gold.

The short-term outlook for the precious metal is rather pessimistic. Analysts believe that gold has lost its directional vector, so the US dollar is in the focus of market participants. According to Michael Langford, executive director at corporate advisory and consultancy firm AirGuide, greenback is now the best defense against most risks, unlike gold. In the medium term, the precious metal may gain momentum amid weak US macroeconomic statistics or the debt problems of China's Evergrande. As for the long term, these factors will hardly support gold.

According to DailyFX currency strategist Ilya Spivak, only the long-term outlook for the price of the yellow metal is optimistic. The recent simultaneous drop in gold and stocks indicates that the precious metal cannot save from losses in risky assets, Spivak believes. Analysts note that the foreseeable future of gold is rather dull, since the odds of gaining strong bullish momentum are pretty slim.

European stock indices fell on the basis of trading on Friday

Investors analyzed statistics that indicate accelerating inflation and a slowdown in economic recovery from the effects of COVID-19. In addition, they are under pressure from the ongoing energy crisis in China, which could lead to even greater problems in global supply chains, especially ahead of New Years and Christmas holidays, when the demand for goods traditionally increases.

In the eurozone, inflation in September accelerated to 3.4%, the highest since 2008, up from 3% a month earlier, preliminary data from the Statistical Office of the European Union show. Experts on average expected an acceleration in the growth rate of consumer prices in September to 3.3%.

The growth rate of retail sales in Germany in August fell short of analysts' expectations. The indicator increased by 1.1% from the previous month, according to data from the country's Federal Statistical Agency (Destatis). The economist had on average expected growth of 1.5%.

The September purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in the eurozone fell to its lowest level since February at 58.6, final data from IHS Markit showed. In the month before last, the indicator was at the level of 61.4 points.

In Germany, the industrial PMI was revised to 58.4 points from 58.5 points previously announced by IHS Markit. In August, the indicator was 62.6 points. In the UK, the indicator fell to 57.1 points from 60.3 in August. However, IHS experts previously estimated the country's September PMI at 56.3 points. The French manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 55 points last month from 57.5 points, the Italian index fell to 59.7 from 60.9 points. The Spanish PMI fell to 58.1 points from 59.5 in August.

In general, the decline in manufacturing activity in European countries was caused by problems in global supply chains and, as a result, an increase in purchase prices, according to the HIS report.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 0.42% and amounted to 452.9 points.

The British FTSE 100 dropped 0.8%, the French CAC 40 fell 0.04%, and the Italian FTSE MIB dropped 0.3%. The German DAX has decreased by 0.7%, since the beginning of the week the indicator has lost more than 3%, that is, the maximum since January 25. At the same time, the Spanish IBEX 35 index grew by 0.04%.

UK sporting goods retailer JD Sports slumped 1.3% after it was reported that the UK regulator had begun investigating possible antitrust violations in the country as part of its partnership with Leicester City F.C. football club.

The market capitalization of the British beverage maker Diageo PLC declined 2%. The company will provide $ 500 million to boost production of tequila in Mexico.

The value of Deutsche Post AG fell by almost 5%. DHL Express's logistics division plans to increase shipping rates for US customers by an average of 5.9% starting January 1.

Oil and gas BP PLC fell 0.7%. The company announced a day earlier that, as part of the investment round, it will allocate $ 13 million to the ****** startup-developer of the service for electric car rental and charging stations BluSmart.

Growth leaders in the Stoxx 600 include French electricity and gas supplier Electricite de France S.A., which gained almost 6% after French Prime Minister Jean Castex said potential electricity price increases in February would be capped at 4%.

German automaker Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) AG gained 1.3%. The company has improved its forecast for a number of financial indicators for 2021, citing the fact that the rise in car prices will offset the negative impact of the global chip shortage.

Daimler AG's value increased by 0.9%. The shareholders of the German automotive concern have approved the spin-off of the Daimler Truck division into an independent company with a separate listing. The remainder of Daimler AG, which will exclusively produce luxury and premium passenger cars and minivans, will be renamed Mercedes-Benz Group AG from February 2022.

GBP/USD pair is looking for a favorable buy pattern

The GBP/USD pair is in the phase of forming an upward momentum unlike the EUR/USD pair. So, only a strong impulse decline at today's European session can disrupt this structure.

If the quotes do not decline, then the upward movement will continue in the area of the Weekly Control Zone of 1/4 1.3561-1.3553. The upward trend is a priority. The WCZ of 1.3789-1.3755 remains the upward target. Trading based on this pattern guarantees a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. It is important to understand that there is a 30% probability to completely implement the upward movement this week, so it is necessary to be prepared to transfer purchases through the weekend.

The probability of selling profitably from the current levels is below 30%, so it is better not to consider short positions. One should focus their attention on finding a pattern to buy. The probability of updating yesterday's high is 80%.

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 7

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Euro bears went over their heads yesterday and pushed EUR/USD to a new monthly low. However, the chart clearly shows that after the fall during the Asian session, the MACD line was still far from zero, so sellers did not have the opportunity to take more positions. Fortunately, buyers also could not open positions because they were unprofitable.

It was the disappointing data from the Euro area that pushed the pair down yesterday. Then, in the afternoon, the price plunged deeper amid strong US statistics that supported dollar.

There is a huge chance that the pair will drop lower today because the upcoming ECB minutes may not be in favor of euro. Aside from that, in the afternoon, there will be weekly data on the US labor market and report on the volume of consumer lending, although it will not have that much impact as many investors anticipate the US Department of Labor report tomorrow.

For long positions:
Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1565 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1599. There is little chance that price will increase sharply today. However, there may be a small upward correction during the publication of the ECB minutes.

In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1548, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1565 and 1.1599.

For short positions:
Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1548 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1510. Pressure is likely to continue because of the political risks in the US and sharp rise in EU inflationary pressures. Strong US statistics will also support dollar.

But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1595, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1548 and 1.1510.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

Wednesday's market signals were very profitable. The first one, which was to sell, coincided with the time that the MACD line was going down from zero. This allowed GBP / USD to decline by 50 pips. The signal to buy that followed provoked a 30-pip increase in the pair.

Disappointing data on the UK construction sector pushed pound down yesterday. In addition, only a few were willing to buy GBP / USD at weekly highs, so there were hardly any long positions in the market. Then, strong ADP report on the US private sector employment further limited the upside potential of the pair in the afternoon.

There are no important UK reports today so pound will have a chance to return to weekly highs. In the afternoon, weekly data on the US labor market will be released, as well as a report on the volume of consumer lending. Most likely, these reports will not have a serious impact on the market, as many investors anticipate the US Department of Labor report tomorrow.

For long positions:
Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3593 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3629 (thicker green line on the chart). Price may climb up since there are no UK statistics scheduled to be released today.

But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.3574, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3593 and 1.3629.

For short positions:
Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3574 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3535. Pressure will return if buyers remain inactive in the market and if the US reports strong labor market data.

But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. The pair could also be sold at 1.3593, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3574 and 1.3535.

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY on October 8

EUR/USD

Analysis:
The main pair of the European currency market has been dominated by an upward trend since March last year. The price has been adjusted downwards for the entire current year. Moreover, the wave structure looks complete. Quotes are at the lower border of a strong potential reversal zone. There are no reversal signals yet.

Forecast:
The general flat nature of price fluctuations is expected today. A short-term depreciation of the exchange rate is possible in the next session, no further than the support zone. By the end of the day, the probability of price growth increases.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 1.1600/1.1530

Support:
- 1.1520/1.1490

Recommendations:
The upcoming rise goes against the trend of movement, so buying the euro today may be risky. It is better to split the lot in them. It is optimal to refrain from entering the pair's market until the price pullback is completed, tracking the signals for the sale of the instrument.

USD/JPY

Analysis:
The price on the daily TF chart of the Japanese yen has been forming a downward correction wave since March of this year. By the current day, it looks like a shifting plane. Its structure lacks the final part. The price is approaching the lower boundary of the resistance zone of the W1 scale.

Forecast:
On the next day, the price of the pair is expected to move with an upward vector. Settlement zones indicate the boundaries of the price corridor. By the end of the day, the probability of a change of course and the beginning of a decline increases.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 112.50/112.80

Support:
- 111.60/111.30

Recommendations:
Trading the Japanese yen today can be safe only within the intraday, a fractional lot. Until clear reversal signals appear in the area of the resistance zone, sales are not recommended.

Analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on October 11

GBP/USD rallied, thanks to the buy signal that coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area. Such allowed bullish traders to take long positions, provoking a 60-pip increase in the pair. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.

It was the latest Bank of England minutes that pushed pound up, coupled with weak data on the US labor market.

Today, a report on UK GDP will be published, which may push pound above local highs. But by afternoon, the market will turn calm amid a US holiday. Many markets will close by then.

For long positions:

Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3658 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3727 (thicker green line on the chart). Price may rise in the morning as there are no UK statistics scheduled for release today. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3607, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3658 and 1.3727.

For short positions:

Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3607 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3535. But there is little chance that the price will decline, especially since the Bank of England seems to be set on raising interest rates as soon as possible. Nevertheless, before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

The pair could also be sold at 1.3658, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3607 and 1.3535.