Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

February 21, 2017


Brazil Eased Inflation Rate Less than 5 percent in February


Brazil lowered its inflation rate less than 5 percent halfway February for the first time since 2012. This was done to recuperate the economy after its two-year-long recession. The inflation target of Central bank comes in at 4.5 percent and they are open for further price easing. This would also be a big help for President Michel Temer who is seeking support in Congress.


On one side, the consumer prices slowed down quicker than expected which could force the authorities to ease their target for 2019. The reports will be publicized on Wednesday morning (1200 GMT) and at the same time, the central bank is anticipated to curtail its rates by 75 basis points from a two-year low of 12.25 percent.

February 21, 2017

U.S Gasoline Supply Piled Up

Crude oil prices stayed in the holding pattern as it awaits for a much clearer data regarding the possible consequences. OPEC have largely complied to support and keep prices away from debts while the increasing oil manufacturing in the United States serves as a counterbalance. Another problem had risen as the gasoline inventories unexpectedly rack up towards a surprising level.

According to EIA, the US crude production recorded 259 million barrels, reaching its highest level upon tracking back its data in 1990, making the worst gasoline glut after 27 years. The glut is caused by high volume of production by which the manufacturing in U.S. continuously expands towards a range of 9 to 10 mb/d.

The rising stocks for oil emerged due to the possible offline maintenance by the refiners, however, it is much more expected that the stockpile would decline. While the current case is that the inventories for refined products and crude both climb higher, therefore, the market has something to worry about. Moreover, the increase helped sustain the rising demand for oil.

February 21, 2017
UK Policymakers Clamor for more Transparency in Offshore Territories
Policymakers in the UK are pressuring UK PM Theresa May to increase transparency with regards to the business guidelines for offshore territories, including the British Virgin Islands. A total of 80 Parliament members are clamoring for amendments to the Criminal Finances Bill which is slated to be returned to the House of Commons next week. According to these Parliament members, the lack of transparency with regards to the business dealings within offshore territories such as Cayman Islands and Bermuda might be used by criminals as an advantage to hide ill-gotten assets as well as curb tax policies.

Launch of “Analytical Reviews” section


Dear clients!

We are glad to inform you about the launch of “Analytical Reviews” section on our website. Since then you won’t have to look for financial analytics on third-party resources – you just need to visit the relevant section on the ForexMart website.

In this new analytical section it will be possible to find up-to-date information about popular currency pairs, trade ideas and recommendations, as well as analytical reviews, forecasts, charts and overall description of the current market situation.

We hope that this innovation makes your trade more convenient and pleasant. Stay tuned and remain abreast of the latest economic trends with ForexMart!

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The Aussie declined following the broad-based US dollar’s strengthening. The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia weighed on the Australian dollar after the regulator decided to keep a steady monetary policy where its major targets correspond with the GDP and inflation.

The AUDUSD develop below the fresh selling pressure yesterday. The reserval within 0.7650 seems short-lived, reaching 0.7700 level. The price bounced back to the resistance during the Asian hours, favoring a downward trend. The spot touched 0.7650 region in the late session of Europe.

The price leading the 50-EMA downwards is exhibited in the 4-hour chart, as it further reached the 100-EMA eventually. All moving averages ascended. The resistance settled near 0.7700, support is at 0.7650.

MACD histogram touched the centerline. An entry within the negative zone will provide more strength for the sellers. When the indicator return to the positive territory, it enable buyers to regulate the market. RSI still sits around the neutral area.

A daily close under 0.7650 region could bring risk to 0.7600. Failure to surpass the region would assist the AUD to ease the ongoing downward pressure. The price is possible to rebound 0.7700.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The US Treasury bond yields grew and the greens reinforced. The focus is now on the upcoming Fed meeting. Moreover, the bearishness continues on Tuesday. The reversal halted below 1.2500 level by which the bear retake the control in leading the spot lower. The sterling came in red on Tuesday.

Sellers continuously pushed the price over the night. The European markets carried renewed selling interest which stimulated the pair’s decline. The Cable highlighted 1.2400 region in post-opening of London session.

The 4-hour chart displayed that the price bounced back to the 50-EMA through a lower area and tested 200-day moving averages. The 50 and 100-EMA headed downwards while the 200-EMA is flat. Resistance is at 1.2500, support pierced 1.2400 area.

MACD indicator weakened implying a sell signal. RSI is confined in the neutral zone. In case the ask tone insist a break under the 1.2400 handle, there opens an opportunity to settle at 1.2300.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The US Treasury bond yields grew and the greens reinforced. The focus is now on the upcoming Fed meeting. Moreover, the bearishness continues on Tuesday. The reversal halted below 1.2500 level by which the bear retake the control in leading the spot lower. The sterling came in red on Tuesday.

Sellers continuously pushed the price over the night. The European markets carried renewed selling interest which stimulated the pair’s decline. The Cable highlighted 1.2400 region in post-opening of London session.

The 4-hour chart displayed that the price bounced back to the 50-EMA through a lower area and tested 200-day moving averages. The 50 and 100-EMA headed downwards while the 200-EMA is flat. Resistance is at 1.2500, support pierced 1.2400 area.

MACD indicator weakened implying a sell signal. RSI is confined in the neutral zone. In case the ask tone insist a break under the 1.2400 handle, there opens an opportunity to settle at 1.2300.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The U.S dollar gained strength versus its major rivals on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the German Manufacturing PMI showed positive figures but the euro pay no attention regarding this report. The single European currency is kept below the pressured area despite the rising concerns about Marine Le Pen’s possible victory in the elections that could threaten the integrity of euro area.

The EURUSD move downwards as it pushed by the bid tone around the greenbacks yesterday. The EUR found a downside pressure and resumed its Monday losses amid Asian trades. The major extended its slide in the EU session. Moreover, the pair tested the level 1.0550 in the middle of European hours. The mentioned level stalled the development of the sellers tightening its grip to the price within the region.

The price bounced off the 100 and 50-EMAs lower while 200-EMA preserved a bullish pattern based on the plot of 4-hour chart. The price further develops under the moving averages. Resistance is found 1.0600, support sits in at 1.0500.

The MACD indicator settled the negative territory, upon maintaining a position in the negative zone, the sellers’ stance will bolster. RSI entered the oversold zone, favoring a fresh downtrend. A clear break under the mark 1.0500 would signal about the onset of a move through 1.0400 or else the price would rebound towards 1.0550, en route 1.0600.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017

The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very well during the past trading sessions in spite of the US dollar regaining the majority of its losses. The GBP/USD pair remains to be one of the most resilient currency pairs, with the pair even bouncing back significantly as the dollar exhibited weakness and managing to hold on its own once the USD strengthened.

However, it is important to note that in spite of its relative strength, the GBP/USD pair is still trading within a very wide range of 400-500 pips, with the pair consistently trading within this range and not going much further. However, as the Brexit process starts to unfold and with the forthcoming invocation of Article 50, the pair might be in for some added volatility in the coming weeks. But it still remains to be seen whether the pair will be able to finally surpass its current ranges and record some significant change in trend.

UK will be releasing its second GDP estimate today which is expected to give the market an inkling of the current state of the UK economy. The GDP estimate would most likely come out as somewhat positive since the economic state of the country has been well during the past periods. The FOMC minutes will also be released later today, and this is expected to be an indicator of the GBP/USD pair’s short-term trend. If the market expectations with regards to the FOMC minutes is met, then the currency pair could possibly revert back to 1.2400 points.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017

The USD/CAD has still managed to keep itself afloat in spite of a small increase in oil prices during the previous trading session. The currency pair continued to trade within its ranges, but this could be a cause for celebration of the pair’s bulls as the USD/CAD traded within its range highs with no hints of weakness whatsoever. This movement was also partly due to the recent surge in the dollar’s value which ensured support for the pair’s bulls.

As of this morning, the USD/CAD has somewhat weakened in stance and spent most of the session consolidating within its range highs with no actual direction. The USD/CAD bulls are now monitoring the release of the FOMC minutes, whose hawkish outlook might possibly lend some much-needed support for the pair and finally create some sense of direction. If the minutes are able to meet market expectations, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly move towards 1.3200 and could even go beyond this range.

For today’s session, we have the FOMC meeting minutes set to be released as well as the release of the US housing data. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy will be releasing its core retail sales data which will have to be closely watched by the USD/CAD bears in order for them to regain dominance over the currency pair.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The U.S. dollars paired against the Canadian dollar surged on Tuesday’s trading. It moved passed the 1.31 handle, breaking the psychological levels. It seems that the this breakout will be followed by a reversal higher than the 1.32 level. This signals a bullish tone but traders should expect the trend to be choppy and harder to manage.

Looking below the chart, the price failed to break lower than the 1.2968 support level. Instead, it maintained its price within the trading range from 1.2968 to 1.3211 area. It is expected for the pair to continue to move back and forth within the said range in the next trading sessions.

The greenback rallied that aligned with the rise in oil market which is not common to occur. If the market is able to break higher than the 1.32 level, then the buying of the pair will continue.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar dropped on Tuesday’s session. Later on, a strong support was found close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level to reverse the trend and form a hammer pattern. This signals a bullish tone with chances to break higher than the peak of the candle pattern formed towards the next target at 0.7250 level. This could further go up towards the 0.7350 level. Traders should also look out for the commodity markets which would influence the new Zealand dollar. The currency prices is relative to the commodity prices, as it goes up, the currency also moves higher.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The Euro against the British pound dropped on Tuesday’s trading. It moved lower than the 0.85 handle after testing the 0.8450 level which has been a strong support in the past. If the price further declined lower than the base of the current trading range, it could reach the 0.83 level. The pair seems to proceed with sell off when it surges but this could still turn around, which the market should be cautious for.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 22, 2017

The Euro against the British pound dropped on Tuesday’s trading. It moved lower than the 0.85 handle after testing the 0.8450 level which has been a strong support in the past. If the price further declined lower than the base of the current trading range, it could reach the 0.83 level. The pair seems to proceed with sell off when it surges but this could still turn around, which the market should be cautious for.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017

There is a high demand for riskier assets that pushed the USD/JPY pair to climb on Tuesday session. Also, the appreciation of dollar was influenced by a stiff sell-off in Euro because of increase in political worries.

Moreover, the stock market surged that influenced the Japanese yen higher because of the carry trade while the recent remarks of Fed officials drove the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. The pair closed at 113.673, increased by 0.582 or +0.51%.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester remarks on Monday also significantly affected the next day trading. This was pushed further by the announcement of Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker saying the pending next rate hike on March.

U.S. economic data results for the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was at 53.9 in February, lower from the reported 55.6 in January and the expected result to be at 55.8.

The continued low borrowing rates made the San Francisco Fed President John Williams to have a dovish sentiment. Similar with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari comments saying the there is no need to rush and go for inflation right away.

The Japanese yen was also influenced by rise in political risk in Europe and excessive sell-off by Euro. The rhetorics of French candidates Marine Le Pen and Dutch candidate Geert Wilders prior to elections has influenced the market sentiment.

Gold investors also reacted to the latest Existing Home Sales data in U.S. trading. The data is predicted to give e a 5.55 million unit gain. On the other hand, the FOMC Member Powell is scheduled to give a speech today. The Fed minutes for February Monetary Policy meeting will also be released which is highly anticipated.

It is anticipated for the market to have high volatility with the release of major economic data and the decision from the monetary policy meeting and connect it with the remarks before the Congress of Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week. Investors will try to get hints on chances for the Fed rate hike on March. As of now, there is 17% chances for a rate hike in March while 47% in June regarding the Fed fund futures.

February 22, 2017

Hong Kong Ex-Chair Tsang Charged with Misconduct, Faces 20-Month Jail Sentence

Donald Tsang, the ex-chief executive of Hong Kong, has just been charged with grave misconduct while in office and has been sentenced to 20 months’ worth of imprisonment. This recent event is now being tagged as a conclusion for a downfall of a former person of political power who helped Hong Kong get through its worst financial crisis some time ago. Tsang has been charged of failure to properly disclose a certain conflict which appeared after Tsang rented out a luxury apartment whose owner was then applying for a broadcasting license in Hong Kong.

February 22, 2017

Singapore-Britain Deeper Collaboration

The sovereign states, Britain and Singapore held yesterday the renewal of their bilateral ties proving their dedication for stronger links with regards to economy and business. The partnership was signed by the countries representatives, Lim Hng Kiang, Singapore’s Minister for Trade and Industry and Liam Fox, the Secretary of State for International Trade from Britain.

Mr.Lim stated that this joint commitment will fight against protectionism and will continue to implement the free and open trade policy. He added that they will further work for an environment that allows for an open global trading.

The arrangement supplemented new programs which involve building trade policy capacity and creating an appointed committee that supports greater collaboration regarding trade and investment of the two countries.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 23, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was somewhat tame during the first part of the trading session as the market awaited the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which contained information on the sentiment of Fed officials with regards to the international economy as well as their insights regarding the interest rate hike. The pair’s bias was obviously on the downside as the pair’s value briefly dropped below 1.0500 after consolidating but was able to recover its losses during the latter part of the trading session.

However, the FOMC meeting minutes turned out to be a huge disappointment for the majority of market players as the minutes did not contain the expected intensity of hawkishness after the Fed’s officials reiterated that although the central bank is keen on implementing a total of three rate hikes year, they still think that a March rate hike might not be feasible for the market just yet. As a result, the currency pair plummeted through 1.0550 points before settling to trade at just above this particular level.

Now that Fed officials have made it clear that a rate hike is not to be expected this coming March, the market is hopelessly clueless with regards to the actual timing of this particular interest rate hike, especially since some officials are saying that they are not completely ruling out the possibility of a March rate hike. But since the market is very averse to uncertainties such as this, the dollar is expected to continue weakening for the rest of the trading day. The US will be releasing its unemployment claims data today but is not expected to make a significant dent in the market’s lack of volatility.

February 23, 2017

Decline in Australia’s Business Investments

Business investments in Australia dropped for the fourth straight quarter as miners lessened while other sectors had increased their plan for expenditures for the year giving a hint of recovery. On Thursday, the report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the decline up to 2.1 percent for the fourth quarter amounting to A$27.6 billion equivalent to $21.18 billion, higher than the expected downturn of 1 percent.


This was mainly influenced by the mining sector where spending has declined by 9 percent despite the recent increase in investments in the manufacturing sector. Even if the expenses on equipaments, factories and machineries which could boost the economy, were not sufficient after an unexpected decline in the last quarter. It is anticipated for figures to reach 0.6 to 0.7 percent economic growth in reports next week.

February 23, 2017

Venezuelan Food Expenses Affected by the Economic Crisis

A couple of years later the negative growth in the economy of Venezuela continues which brought about depressing stories regarding scarcity and difficulties every month. A particular news was published that according to the yearly national survey, almost three-quarters of the citizens stated for suffering weight loss with an average of 19 pounds during 2015 up to 2016.

The National Survey of Living Condition were supervised by three major universities in the country together with other groups of researchers. Further results include that respondents cut their meals and apt to ate less than 2 meals per day with a percentage rate of 11.3 in 2015 up to 32.5 percent in the previous year with an equivalent of 9.6 million individual.

The economic tailspin in Venezuela started in 2014 due to recession in oil prices worldwide coupled with the unexpected government fiscal policy and excessive dependence towards imports which caused the economy to make an abrupt stop.

February 23, 2017

Fed Officials Not Too Eager on Implementing Rate Hike in March

Contrary to the general market sentiment, the FOMC is not so keen on raising interest rates this coming March and might wait until such time that the market feels right enough to actually implement a rate hike. The central bank is more keen than ever to implement at least three interest rate hikes this year but its officials are not losing their patience just yet to actually impose a rate hike anytime soon. However, this could change depending on the release of subsequent economic data in the coming days, as these will become indicators on whether there is an actual need for an interest rate hike from the Fed.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 24, 2017

The greenbacks softened versus the loonie. The focus were turned to the Consumer Price Index of Canada which is projected to exceed the possible result.

The USD was unable to contain its reversal the other day. The uptrend lost its steam within the region 1.3190 by which the spot met renewed offers.

The USDCAD remain being offered in the market on Thursday. Sellers was able to lead the price towards 1.3120 from the barrier 1.3190. The commodity-linked pair reached 200-EMA which became the support of the major as described in the 4-hour chart. Moreover, the 100 and 50-EMA were in the neutral zone while the 200-EMA descended. The USD attempted to reclaim the trend during the EU session. Resistance entered 1.3190, support settled around 1.3120. The MACD weakened which favored strength for the sellers. RSI headed to the downside.

The technicals featured an extension lower except for preserving the 1.3120 range. The 1.3090 mark is possible to retest upon moving under the mentioned range. Inability to surpass the mark will direct the pair towards 1.3190.

February 27, 2017

Expected Shift in Crude Futures as Much as $2B Will Put an End to Oil Glut


In the upcoming week, the passive investment funds are expected to rise to $2 billion from long-term to short-term crude futures, while the energy market surges after OPEC output reduced its supply. This is expected to put an end to global oil glut accumulated over two years of price war. Excessive oil supply in international inventories drove the prices to multiple year lows.


The Brent contract LCOK7 price established at $56.31 a barrel on May, while the LCOM7 price settled at $56.55 a barrel in June.On the other hand, the limit for the West Texas Intermediate crude remains the same. The gap between the first month and the subsequent month on Brent contracts LCOc1-LCOc2 has tightened from 79 cents down to 5 cents. However, both June and December contracts LCOM7-Z7 traded closely on Friday.

February 27, 2017

Macri’s Reforms Showed Signs for Economic Resurgence in Argentina

The economy of Argentina beefed up by 1.6% during the month of December compared with last month result according to the data from the government. This growth provided hints about the country’s possible expansion for the fourth quarter subsequent to an extensive economic depression. The Argentine Republic declined to 0.1% in December on an annualized basis and down by 2.3% in 2016 versus 2015. However, the current President of the country, Mauricio Macri executed several market-oriented reforms with a purpose of economic liberalization and inspiring additional investments which further influenced rampant inflation in the short-term.

The monthly development took place in December demonstrates the projected rebound of the economy in Q4 of 2016 following the four consecutive worst quarters. The INDEC, national statistics agency based in Buenos Aires, said the GDP data for Q4 is scheduled to release immediately after the nearby month.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017

   The GBP/USD took a heavy hitting during the previous session as the pair’s bulls were unable to create a continuously good run for the pair since every time a bounce in the pair manifests, the pair immediately drops as it is met with major selloffs. There are still overshadowing concerns with the currency pair since the Brexit process is still ongoing, and this ensures that the GBP/USD pair will be unable to go higher for quite some time.

   The GBP/USD pair was hit even more harder yesterday after rumors that Scotland is currently planning to implement another referendum in their favor in order to discern whether it would still be beneficial for them to continue becoming part of the UK. If this happens, then this would be disastrous for the UK economy since other parts of the UK might also be encouraged to do the same. This is probably the worst that could happen to the UK, especially since Scotland had initially voted to remain part of the European Union but was outvoted by the majority of UK members. But then further confirmation of this particular rumor never happened, and this caused the GBP/USD pair to bounce back from 1.2400 and is currently trading at just under 1.2450 points.

   There are no major news releases expected from the UK today but the US will be releasing its Preliminary GDP data and consumer confidence data. The currency pair would most likely remain under pressure for today, with the 1.2500 barrier presenting a possibly limit to any kind of uptrend in the pair.