Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

RBA interest rate decision remained at 1.5%
The central bank of Australia or also known as RBA has announced their final decision during the board meeting held every month. The Reserve Bank of Australia made a resolution to keep their rates unchanged with a record low reaching 1.50 percent.
According to a site whose purpose is to compare mortgage rates, finder.com.au have made a survey among 75 experts in the industry and most them expected that rates will still be consistent. Furthermore, they support the RBA’s decision as there is no reason to demand the bank to employ such changes. Many professionals from the industry anticipate that the next move of the Australian financial system will be on the upcoming February 2017.

Australia's Economy Weakened by 0.5% in Third Quarter 2016
The Australia’s economy declined more than the anticipated 0.5% in the month of September which is set to be the first recorded three months of low growth in the span of five years. The annual economic growth rate also declined from 3.3% to 1.8%


Global growth is also stagnant for this year and the labor market also weaker compared in 2015. An economist has stated that the economic growth was also dampen by the election campaign in the months of June and July that pulled the numbers to record highs brought by economic and political uncertainty. This has influenced the consumer and business activities although it has been forecasted that the the economy will regain in the last month of the year.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: D ecember 8, 2016
The NZD decreased in value as dairy prices surged, while the RBNZ governor gave no particular hints with regards to the New Zealand economy in his latest parliament speech. The NZD/USD pair maintained its neutral stance during the previous trading session, with the NZD attempting to correct during Wednesday following a slight selloff last Tuesday. The currency pair encountered strong support levels at the 0.7100 range and was able to reclaim the majority of its losses. However, during the London trading session, the recovery streak of the NZD was stopped at the 0.7140 region.
The value of the NZD/USD pair increase and eventually tested the 200 EMA in the pair’s 4-hour chart, with the 100 and 200 EMAs remained neutral and the 50 EMA is currently exhibiting an upward trend. The resistance levels for the NZD/USD pair is at 0.7150 points, while support levels for the currency pair is expected to come in at 0.7100 points. The MACD indicator for the currency pair surged, signalling an increase in buyer strength. The pair’s RSI indicator also increased and confirmed the recent surge in buyer strength.
If the NZD/USD manages to go through 0.7150, then this could induce the pair to reach further resistance levels at 0.7200 points. The currency pair could also possibly hit 0.7250 if the pair breaks through 0.7200 points.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 8, 2016
The European market remained stagnant during the previous session as market players are currently waiting for the minutes of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. The EUR increased against the USD during Wednesday’s trading session but was unable to regain its previous losses.The market exhibited low volatility during the London trading session due to an absence of market players. The EUR/USD pair spent the first half of yesterday’s session over 1.0700 points, with the currency pair’s pricing remaining under the 200 EMA. The 100 and 200 EMA for the pair exhibited a downward trend, and the 50 EMA increased and was able to reach the 100 EMA. Resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to come in at 1.0750, while support levels for the currency pair is expected to come in at 1.0700 points.
The EUR/USD’s MACD indicator remained in the positive side of the chart, while the RSI indicator stayed within the overvalued territory. The next bullish point for the currency pair is at 1.0750, and if the pair manages to break through this particular region, then this could cause the pair to hit the 1.0800 region.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 8, 2016


The GBP dropped in value after the Industrial production and Manufacturing data came out well below the initial market expectations. The sterling pound continued to decrease in value during Wednesday’s session after slightly consolidating within the 1.2670 region. The GBP further decreased in value and eventually tested the 1.2600 region prior to the opening of the London trading session. Sellers encountered a pricing boundary as the GBP/USD reached the 1.2600 trading range before dropping further and tested the pair’s 50 EMA in the 4-hour chart. The 50, 100, and 200 moving averages for the currency pair is continuously increasing, and the resistance levels for the currency pair is situated at 1.2700 points. Support levels for the currency pair is expected to come in at 1.2600 points.
The MACD indicators for the pair dropped, indicating a weakening in buyer positions. Meanwhile, the pair’s RSI indicator exhibited a downward trend. For the next trading session, the GBP/USD pair is expected to drop further towards the 1.2500 trading region.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 8, 2016
The USD CAD is moving in the small trading range as it established a consolidation phase on the back of the anticipated rate decision from the Bank of Canada. Some say that the Canadian central bank plans to make a surprise rates reduction, however, the BOC decided to put their rates on hold. In addition to the BOC’s statement is the evaluation of the positive elements while the negative aspects were given priority and they also pointed out the economic-related factors that need further improvement. Moreover, it doesn’t include any high priority news which loses the cheer of the smaller scale of the market. Subsequent to this announcement, the loonies and greens remained in the pressured area as the USD weakened for the reason that the yields also dropped. The pair settled down from the 1.3250 due to this pressure but the uptrend remained intact. The upward movement would continue except when a 1.3000 clear break occurred and in case it won’t transpire, the next target of the price is in the 1.4000 medium term.
The consecutive events regarding Trump’s election victory and the attempt to make another round of discussion with Canada’s NAFTA agreement have strongly influenced the moderate strengthening of the greenbacks, we also expect the pair will also endure this effect.
Medium and long term traders are recommended to take a long position with a stop loss under the 1.300 region.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 7, 2016


The decision of the RBA to preserved its rate caused the Aussie to slow down. As the regulator have said that there is a tendency for a short-term downturn in the country’s economy. The pair were unable to break the 0.7500 area due to a pressured area that recently arise which results in a reversal of its gains from the earlier sessions. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar turns back through the 0.7450 level and settled therein during the EU hours. The price attempted to regain its strength prior to the onset of New York trading session, it headed upwards further away from the 50 and 100 EMAs as seen in the 4-hour chart. The 50 averages ascended over the 100, while the 200 EMA together with the 100-day moving average exhibited a bearish slope. Resistance is seen at 0.7500 region, support sits within the region of 0.7450. The MACD histogram approached the positive zone. RSI is placed around the neutral territory.
Should the AUDUSD expand its gains in order to remain on top of the 0.7450. Traders are capable of leading the prices to the 0.7500 mark. Even though prices attempted to break the resistance level couple of times, it seems hard-bitten. In case another failure came to pass within this point, the Aussie and greens will be rejected further in the 0.7450. Contrarily, the AUD has the chance to extend its gains until 0.7550 if the buyers get it to the top.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 9, 2016
The USD/CAD is currently still subject to increased pressure after crude oil prices surged during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair is expected to experience this particular pressure as long as oil prices continue to fluctuate and would only cease once crude oil prices reach equilibrium. If this phenomenon happens, then the strength of the USD would most likely dominate the currency pair, and the weak value of the CAD would cause the currency pair to increase in value.
Although the Canadian dollar is currently strengthening, its price is expected to drop once crude oil prices stop its fluctuations and cease from moving upwards, especially since certain issues with the NAFTA agreement will be reopened due to Trump’s re-negotiation, and any changes with this particular agreement would have a significant effect on the trade relationships between Canada and US. The CAD could also weaken due to minor market speculations that the Bank of Canada would be implementing rate cuts next year, and unless the currency pair manages to break through 1.3000, then the USD/CAD will continue to be on the upward trend with a target of 1.4000 points.
There are no major economic news releases expected from the Canadian economy for today’s trading session, and while the US will be releasing its UoM Consumer Sentiment data, this particular piece of news from the region is not expected to have a major impact on the market in general. Market players will now be shifting their focus to US yields, as well as on the scheduled Fed meeting next week, where the Fed is expected to finally implement its much-awaited interest rate hike. However, this event does not automatically translate to an increase in the value of the USD, but the market is expected to receive hints with regards to the Fed’s rate hikes this coming 2017.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 9, 2016
The Japanese yen depreciated against the U.S. dollar because of the decline of GDP of the country. An increase in tension for greenbacks after the ECB decided not to changes its current monetary policy that rallied the pair.
Sellers tried to pushed the prices lower towards the 113.000 level during the Asian session giving mixed trend in the market yesterday as the price rebounded and stayed higher than the said level. Moreover, the market for the pair became attractive as it moved upwards during the North American session.
The Resistance level is seen at 115.00 level while the Support sited at 114.00 mark.The traders was not able to move the price above the 115.00 level but the price broke at 114.00. The market is focusing on 114.00 level but if there was a clean break, then the trend will shift towards the 115.00 level.
The 50-EMA showed a rebound in the price of the pair seen in the 4-hours chart maintaining its bullish slope. Its MACD histogram showed buyers leading the market supported by RSI as it moves upward.

Japan’s Economic Growth Rate is Weaker for the Third-quarter

The Japanese economy presented a lower-than-expected data during the third quarter of this year. According to the country’s Cabinet Office, Japan obtained 1.3% growth for the past three months until September versus to the results of the previous year. However, the initial estimate is 2.2% which is comparably weaker to the final result. Included in the recently presented data is the investments from various companies which is also lower than the earlier evaluation. The CapEx dropped by 0.4% as of this quarter due to the lesser investments from the steel and real estate industries. Furthermore, another data have revealed that the services sector is developing along with the increase in consumer spending.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 12, 2016
The GBP/USD pair had a lackluster performance during the entirety of last week’s trading sessions since the sterling pound experienced constant pressure from the much stronger euro. The EUR plummeted last week after the ECB announced its plans to extend its quantitative easing program, and the EUR/GBP lost a significant amount of its value, causing the sterling pound to be affected as well. Prior to this sudden drop in value, the GBP has previously exhibited remarkable resiliency in spite of the confusion caused by the Brexit process. The GBP rose during the first part of last week and was even able to go through 1.2700 points before eventually reaching 1.2800 points before the announcement from the ECB dragged the GBP down.
The GBP was also subject to added pressure due to delays in the implementation of the Brexit strategies as the Parliament is in the middle of heated debates regarding the implementation of Article 50 on the region. Since the timeline for the Brexit remains uncertain in spite of numerous meetings and debates within the Parliament, the sterling pound is expected to remain under pressure and any form of reversion should be immediately seen as a sell-off opportunity for the currency pair.
For this week, the market is expecting the release of the CPI data as well as the Claimant count change data from the from the UK. The Bank of England is also expected to make a statement on whether the central bank would be maintaining its current interest rate of 0.25%, and the Fed is also scheduled to make an announcement regarding its interest rate hike, as well as a statement on whether the central bank will be adding up the frequency of its rate hikes next year. Due to the large number of economic data scheduled to be released this week, the market is expected to undergo an especially high level of volatility within the week.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 12, 2016
The USD/CAD was subject to pressure for the majority of last week’s trading sessions due to the continued buoyancy of oil prices despite a short drop in the commodity’s price. Since the Canadian dollar is hugely reliant on crude oil prices and with the fluctuations in oil prices, the CAD has been subject to wildly erratic activity during the past week as well. Presently, market players are expecting that oil prices would experience further surges during this week and the USD/CAD is expected to be subject to more pressure for this week as well.
The economic releases from Canada last week turned out to be pretty positive, with the Canadian trade balance data clinching the string of positive economic data from the region. The Bank of Canada has also decided last week that it will be sustaining its rates at 0.5%, signalling remarkable improvements in the Canadian economy and is expected to further improve due to future increases in oil prices. The currency pair is now forming strong support bases at the 1.3180 trading region.
For this week, the Federal Reserve is set to release its statement with regards to its long-anticipated interest rate hike, and the market currently has expectations of a 0.25% interest rate hike, plus hints on whether the central bank would be increasing the frequency of its hikes this coming 2017. The US is also set to release its retail sales data, while Canada will be releasing its Manufacturing Sales data, and these are expected to induce volatility for the USD/CAD this week. Analysts are speculating that if the pair manages to sustain its place at the 1.3000 region, then the currency pair would be able to continue its upward direction especially since crude oil prices could become tapered in the near future.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: December 12, 2016
The USD increased in relation to the JPY and was able to reach its highest levels since January. The USD/JPY pair finished off last week’s trading session at 115.291 points after surging by up to 115.291 points or +1.61%. This particular close marks the fifth consecutive positive close for the currency pair, its longest strong streak in over two years. As investors anticipated the ECB’s monetary decisions and interest rate plans last week, the USD/JPY exhibited sideways trading for the most part of last week’s trading session.
However, the ECB’s announcement left uncertainties for the financial market in general after the central bank announced the extension of its QE program up until 2017, when the initial market expectations regarding the bank announcement was the bank announcing either the tapering of its present stimulus or increasing the bank’s economic stimulus. Furthermore, the European Central Bank has also announced that it will be cutting back its purchases by up to 60 billion EUR per month.
For this particular week, the main market catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s statement on its monetary decisions, as well as its much-awaited interest rate decision this coming December 14. The USD/JPY would only be able to continue its rally if the Fed decides to increase the frequency of its future rate hikes in 2017. If the Fed decides to have a maximum of two rate hikes next year, then the currency pair would most likely be subject to added selling pressure. However, if the Fed decides to have more than two rate hikes next year, then the USD/JPY would be able to extend its rallies within the week.

December 12, 2016
EU Stocks Surge, Extend its Longest Rallying Streak in Two Years
European stocks extended its longest rallying streak during Friday’s trading session, with EU stocks hitting its highest rallies in over two years following highly supportive projected policy plans from the European Central Bank. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index closed down the previous session within 0.7% of an impending bullish market, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased by 1%. The Italian FTSE MIB Index meanwhile dropped by 0.7% after posting its highest three-day increase in six months.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 12, 2016
The decision of the ECB to maintain its monetary policy had strengthened the dollar. However, the euro is weakening once again after it made a dipped on its fresh monthly highs and failed to hold its gains. Meanwhile, the EURUSD headed southwards on Friday. During the EU hours, the sellers successfully broke the 1.0600 region then continued to lead the prices through the 1.0550 lower, the pair surpass this level amid the NY session. The price rebounded in the 200-EMA downwards as shown in the 4-hour chart. After the euro and greens had broke both 50 and 100-EMAs, it continued to progress down in the moving averages. While the 100 and 200 EMAs preserved its bearish bias, 50 EMA rendered a neutral stance. Resistance touched the area of 1.0600, support is seen at 1.0550.
The MACD histogram makes its entry point within the negative zone. Should the indicator kept unmoved in the negative area, the sellers are able to gain further strength. The RSI remains oversold.
In case the prices settled below the 1.0600 support level, this will cause for a short-term downtrend. The next target of the sellers is 1.0500 and 1.0550.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 12, 2016
The Goods Trade Balance and Total Trade Balance established an optimistic data on Friday along with the strengthening of the sterling pound. The British currency procured some ground during the earlier trading session on Friday. Buyers drove the prices towards a higher position and tested the 1.2600 level amid the European session. The upward impetus short-lived consequent to the test, following the GBP’s rollback below the level. As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the cable pair rebounded through the 50-EMA. Moving averages uphold its bullish bias.
Resistance lies in the 1.2600 are, the support sits at the 1.2500 region. The MACD histogram pierced through the negative range. When the MACD stayed in the negative zone, sellers will obtain more strength. The RSI is within the neutral territory.
The GBPUSD is expected to weaken upon the break below the 1.2600 level. Likewise, this could lead the prices towards 1.2500.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 12, 2016
The Aussie traded mixed following the release of Australia and China’s economic data Home loans grew less as the Chinese and Australian manufacturing PMI presented greater than the anticipated results. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD is trading higher than the previous amid EU sessions on Friday. The rally faded within the 0.7500 region, which acts a strong support and further rejected the prices downwards. The Australian dollar rebounded the 0.7500 area and shifted towards the 0.7450. The price made a reversal in the 50-EMA and moved to the 200-EMA wherein the price is rejected downwards. Both 200 and 100 EMAs are trending lower and the 50-day moving average seems neutral. Resistance reached the 0.7500 level, support is seen at 0.7450. The MACD histogram traded downside. RSI remained neutral.
The bulls will decide to withdraw upon the failure of the pair to extend its gains. In case the price plunge to 0.7500, it would continue to weaken until it reaches the 0.7450 region. Moreover, the downtrend is expected to expand the seller’s position towards 0.7350.

December 12, 2016
Demonetisation of 100-Bolivar Notes
The Republic of Venezuela made its announcement regarding the official replacement of the country’s banknotes, it will be fill in with coins within 3 days. The government decided to remove the 100-bolivar notes in order to minimize the smuggling of various items including foods. According to Nicolas Maduro, Venezuelan President, the syndicates run their operations within the border of the country cannot execute the repatriation of the notes. The most recent amount of the former “highest denomination” bill - 100 bolivar note is 2 US cents (£0.015). Moreover, the so-called “terrestrial paradise” are now dealing with a severe crisis both in political and economic sector since the region are included in the list of the world’s highest rates of inflation.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
The Japanese yen experienced downward pressure during Monday’s session due to the OPEC production deal as well as the positive market sentiment with regards to the Fed rate hike scheduled this December. Japan had recently released its Machinery Order and turned out to be positive, but even this particular economic data’s effect paled in comparison to the aforementioned events which had a much larger impact on the safe haven currency.
The price of the USD/JPY pair reverted from 116.00 points and went back to the 115.00 trading range. As seen in the currency pair’s 4-hour chart, the price of the USD/JPY stayed just above its moving averages and continued to inch higher. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair is seen to be at 116.00, while support levels are expected to come in at 115.00 points.
The MACD indicators for the currency pair increased, showing a surge in buyer strength. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators were able to remain within the overvalued regions. The market is now monitoring the pair’s current position at 116.00, and if the USD/JPY manages to break through this region, then the pair could possibly hit the 117.00 trading region.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
The USD/CAD pair remained under 1.3120 points and has now clinched its tenth day in the lower rung of the trading range. The CAD dropped during the previous trading session due to a 5% increase in crude oil prices after the OPEC meeting last week, which included non-OPEC oil-producing countries, with the participants altogether agreeing to implement production cuts on oil. Participants who were not OPEC members all agreed to productions cuts amounting to a total of 600,000 bpd, with Russia contributing a total cut of 300,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia has also expressed its possible plans to further cut back on its production of oil. However, in spite of the uncertainty on whether oil producers would be able to push through with their planned production cuts, an increase in oil prices would most definitely help in augmenting US shale production and could offset the production cuts announced last week.
The Canadian trade market would be able to benefit from steady increases in crude oil prices, as the USD/CAD’s 200 EMA is presently at 1.3075 points and is in line with 1.3040 on the lower region of the trading chart. Resistance levels for the USD/CAD pair is at the 1.3175-1.3185 trading region, and the pair shows signs of becoming oversold. Market players are now expecting a retrace if the 200 EMA maintains its current levels within the week.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
The weakness of the U.S dollar is felt widespread. In spite of the fact that the Fed are certain to have a rate increase, the greens remained on its recent highs. The British pound remained sluggish versus its American counterpart, however, the GBP met a strong support in the 1.2600 region which helped the pound to minimize downside volatility.
There is an anticipated buying within the 1.2500 level. Buyer tried to make some recovery and surpass the 1.26 mark, but they failed to expand its gains and it kept intact above the broken level upon the onset of New York trading session. The 4-hour chart showed the price tested the 50-EMA and it remained in the middle of 50 and 100-day moving averages. The entire moving averages carried a bullish slope. The current resistance touched the 1.2700 level, support has procured the 1.2600 area. The MACD histogram sits on the same level which favored additional strength for the sellers. The RSI is trending upwards. The short-term downtrend will continue in case that the price settled in the support level of 1.2600. The next target of the sellers is 1.2400-1.2500.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
The single European currency had strengthened while dollar continued to soften in the market together with a risk-off sentiment. Traders await for the Fed meeting to be held on Wednesday. The pair stayed in the downside of the market yesterday. The price made a reversal from the 1.0525 handle and exhibited upward swings through 1.0600.
Buyers successfully surpass the level and expanded its gains towards the region of 1.0650.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price has been tested by the 100-EMA. While, the moving averages preserved its bearish signal. Resistance is seen in the 1.0650 area, support landed at the 1.0600 level. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram hovered on its previous range which confirmed seller's strength. The RSI approached the neutral position.
In case that the market prevailed a bearish sentiment, the pair will be sold upon the 1.0600 contractions. Sellers still have the power to push the price until it reaches the 1.0500 region. Mainly, the euro may continue to recover supposing that it w

AUD/USD Technical analysis: December 13, 2016
The pair moves in an upward direction breaking above the 0.7508 Resistance level from 0.7369 mark. If the uptrend continues, the next target will be 0.7600 level. The Support level comes at 0.7428 level and if a break below this line is seen, this confirms the uptrend of the pair.