Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 24, 2017

The USD/CAD pair had a somewhat strong performance last week as the currency pair started out within its range and looked to consolidate. However, the pair only managed to break through the very tough resistance region of 1.3400 towards the end of the week, with the pair finally advancing towards 1.3500 points, which has been tagged several times as a highly crucial region since it has prevented the USD/CAD pair to make any significant progress in the past few months, with the bulls failing again and again to break through this range in spite of their various efforts. The rally of the USD/CAD pair was attributed partly to the USD’s strength after reports that the Trump administration is still very much interested in implementing a tax plan, with the said tax plan getting implemented possibly within this year. In addition, Trump could possibly outline the details of the corporate tax plan within the week and this could further boost the value of the USD/CAD pair.

The USD/CAD pair was also influenced by the recent drop in oil prices. Oil prices had started out as initially strong, but then eventually dropped after concerns on whether oil producers would still push through with the production cut deals as the market approaches the midyear. This then enabled the value of the USD/CAD pair to reach 1.3500 points where it is currently located.

For this week, the Canadian economy will be releasing its GDP data as well as retail sales data, while the US economy will be releasing its advanced GDP data. If the USD/CAD pair manages to breakthrough cleanly its current region, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly march towards 1.4000 points, although traders should be wary of a possible ranging and consolidation action.

April 24, 2017

Inflation Weighed on the Economy of Britain

The British economy has cooled significantly in the months of January to March this year because higher inflation put pressure on disposable incomes. The Office for National Statistics is scheduled to publish the estimated GDP data for the first quarter this Friday.

Great Britain almost forgot the impact of the Brexit referendum on June and had an unexpectedly quick recovery. The growth rates in the third quarter of 2016 reached 0.5% while 0.7 for the last quarter.

Based on the forecast of city economists, the country will experience an arduous year ahead linked with a 0.4$ steep decline on growth during the first three months of 2017.

The country previously earned 0.2% which is considered as the weakest performance in the Q1 of 2016.

Moreover, the sterling became weaker which increased the price for imports and drove the inflation towards its three-year high obtaining 2.3%.

China’s Bullish GDP Growth Stabilizes Yuan
The first quarter data of China has come out after a solid positive gain causing a slowdown in capital outflows to stabilize the currency following a selloff last year. They are optimistic to attain the 6.5 percent GDP growth for this year as mentioned by the Finance minister Xiao Jie. This is a good signal indicating the strengthening of yuan and capital flows are gaining back by the country.
The interest rates are moving in an upward direction despite tighter policies to curb the fast growth of credit hampering the economic progress. Yet, economic growth advanced faster-than-expected 6.9 percent in the first quarter, weakening capital outflows and more stable cross-border flows have strengthened yuan substantially. This has then eased the pressure regards to Foreign exchange reserves as it retreated with the surge of the greenback.
However, further tightening cannot be ruled out as it may change again abruptly especially when the currency come again under pressure with the global appreciation of the U.S. dollar.

April 24, 2017

ECB Reassures EU Citizens amid French Election Concerns

An official from the European Central Bank has offered his reassurances to a very worried EU audience amid pre-election anxieties stemming from the French national elections by saying that the ECB has enough reinforcements should the said elections result to an eventual fallout. Austrian central bank governor Ewald Nowotny has stated that the ECB has several instruments on hand if ever liquidity becomes a problem for French banks after the conclusion of the said elections. Nowotny is currently part of the ECB’s rate-setting governing council.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 25, 2017

The currency pair EURUSD breaks upwards towards its renewed highs in 2017 during the Monday opening. The upward momentum reached 1.0900 region and weakened afterward.

The spot became sluggish shortly after that event, falling to the level 1.0850.

Meanwhile, sellers attempted to regain the area but did not succeed because the handle was fully protected by the buyers.

Moreover, sellers continued to strive for the level in the morning. Resistance came in at 1.0900 mark, support approached the 1.0850 range.

According to forecasts, it is probable to consider downward movement near 1.0800 region. The euro is also possible to struggle to fill the gap for the next sessions. In case the buyers remained in control, it will direct the EUR/USD beside 1.0900.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 25, 2017

The AUDUSD is kept intact in the pressured area on Tuesday morning as the North Korean issues recurred. While investors have a light spirit due to high paying assets.

Moreover, traders felt slightly nervous on the back of White House invitation to the U.S Senate with regards on the briefing of N.Korea’s situation scheduled on Wednesday.

The flight-to-safety buying will send investors away from Australian Dollar which is one of the currency with high risk and will settle on gold and Japanese Yen which are considered safe haven assets.

Based on the daily swing chart, the main trend is descending. A move with .7610 will help the trend to edge higher. The closing on Monday ended up at .7568 which made a 50% level near .7576 resistance region. This was followed by .7600 and .7611 retracement levels.

Found in the downside is the immediate support .7541 which is a long-term Fibonacci level while .7525 short-term Fibonacci level is followed.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: April 25, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar surpassed the 1.3535 Resistance level up to 1.3560 level. This could further go up towards the next target at 1.3600 region. The short term support is progressing in an upward direction from 1.3223 level and it seems that this will persist for sometime. The major resistance level is positioned at 1.3410 and a break lower than the said level indicates the completion of the uptrend.

The pair declined in the beginning of Monday session but recovered after a hammer like candle is formed. The oil market sold off which then influenced the currency and followed through. The market keep /on trying to break higher than the 1.35 level towards the next target at 1.36 handle. It is anticipated that actions in the upper channel would result to a “buy and hold” condition and may not be favorable to sell this for now. Buyers could return in the market in instanced of near-term reversals with the current condition of the oil market.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: April 25, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese year broke higher in the beginning of Monday session maintaining the near term uptrend from 108.13 level. Investors were interested in ordering long yen as it is a safe haven that boosted the dollar to go up. If the pair continues to move within the trading range, this uptrend will most likely persist towards the next target at 112.00 region.

On the other hand, a clear break lower the the support area indicates completion of the uptrend at 110.57 mark and the continuation of the downtrend from 115.50 region. This could further go down towards the 108.13 support in the next retest.

A supportive candle opens buying opportunities since the market is inclined to move higher. Monitoring the short term charts would be the helpful to determined the support of buying pressure in the market and a break lower than the psychological levels would not be a good premonition.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: April 25, 2017

The USD/JPY pair had a very volatile trading session last Monday although it managed to finish the session on a much higher note as investors reacted to the first round of the French national elections. However, the currency pair dropped slightly, an indication that investors were pretty much sure of the election results and were now moving towards other geopolitical events such as the North Korean issues and an impending shutdown in the US economy. The JPY could possibly resume its rally if concerns over geopolitical issues would increase over time. Meanwhile, the USD was also unable to stabilize itself due to a drop in Treasury yields and a very dismal US economic data.

As of the moment, the results of the French elections are showing that Macron could easily eclipse Le Pen in the second round of the elections, which is scheduled on May 7. The USD/JPY pair is not expected to make a significant reaction to the election unless Le Pen would be able to surpass Macron’s current lead in the elections. On the other hand, a looming government shutdown is expected from the US economy could possibly happen once the shutdown deadline of April 28 would fail to see the government passing enough legislations to ensure that certain branches of the government would not have to cease operating. Although the economy itself still has some back up funds which could ensure the economic stability of the country for several more months, this is not a good sign for the economy and investors are expected to act in accordance to this particular occurrence. Once this happens, then investors could possibly move towards safer assets such as the Japanese yen.

But the main focus of USD/JPY investors for this week are the events in North Korea, with the demand for safer assets expected to stay in place due to tensions created by the North Korean missile and nuclear program.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 25, 2017

The EUR/USD pair’s action has been mainly dictated by the results of the first round of the French national elections, wherein Emmanuel Macron has been able to gain a significant headway against centrist candidate Marine Le Pen. As of late, Macron was able to gain a 20% lead against Le Pen, and this has been a very favorable occurrence as far as the market is concerned. The EUR/USD pair managed to break through its bearish trend last weekend and has commenced yesterday’s session by reaching an all-time high of 1.0919 points before settling to lower trading points.

If Macron manages to again win the second round of the French elections this coming May 7, then the eurozone currency could possibly breach higher levels and could hit 1.1300 points. However, this headway is still not enough to tone down market woes, and the final results of the elections would have to come out first before investor concerns would completely die down especially since the market is still somewhat reeling from geopolitical events which took a turn for the worse during the last minute, such as the Brexit referendum and Trump’s victory last year.

The German IFO Business Confidence data came out yesterday and clocked in its highest levels reached since 2011. This coming Thursday, the European Central Bank will be having a monetary policy meeting followed by a press conference immediately after. The central bank’s interest rates are expected to be maintained by ECB officials, although market players are expecting pointers on whether there will be possible adjustments on the central bank’s asset-buying mechanism.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 25, 2017

The GBP/USD pair maintained its current consolidating trend and is now situated within the bottom rung of its trading range at 1.2775 points. The currency pair traded with a slightly bearish undertone for the third straight session and is still struggling to reach last week’s surge caused by Theresa May’s call for a snap election this coming June.

The USD’s recovery seems to be the only that is maintaining the downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair, especially since Trump’s proactive economic policies are now lending some much-needed support for the currency pair. This is why the majority of market investors are anticipating Trump’s large-scale tax cut policies which is set to be released within the week.

For today’s session, the UK economy is expected to release its UK Public Sector Net Borrowing data, while the US economy will be releasing the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index which could possibly be the main attraction of the NY session later today. In addition, the US will also be releasing its new home sales data, House Price Index or HPI, and Richmond Manufacturing Index data.

April 25, 2017

Asian Stocks Abated Due to High Risks

The appeal of Asian stocks to investors has subsided because of political and economic risks that overshadowed continuous returns over the past 26 years. Asian business has been good in the second half last year up to early this year and is the impetus is slowing down soon

This put the Asian equities for a sell-off as investors have become cautious compared a few months ago. Moreover, political elections in Europe and profit taking in the U.S. bring in corrections that are not good. Another concern is the decline in cyclical upswings in China and the United States which has a big effect on global trading including equities of Emerging market.

Nevertheless, investors do not totally leave despite the high costs of stocks compare to other emerging markets but are still lesser cost than developed markets. The analysts forecasted earnings to rise by 17% this year.

April 25, 2017

Trump Proposes Corporate Tax Cuts by Up to 15%

White House aides have been ordered by President Donald Trump to draft a corporate tax plan which will cut down the corporate tax rate by up to 15% in spite of the fact that this will be translating to significant profit losses. Trump has told his staff at an Oval Office meeting last week that he is looking for a large-scale tax cut which could be sold to American citizens, with the possibility of a federal budget deficit notwithstanding. Trump had also reportedly told his officials to finish it in time in order to release a comprehensive tax plan this coming Wednesday.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

On Tuesday, the Euro bulls were able to win back the driver’s seat following a neutral position in the night.

The major were removed from the region 1.0850 during the morning trades of Europe as it moved and rallied near its fresh peaks found at 1.0900 mark.

The price halted within the 1.0900 in which the EURUSD eyes some renewed offers. The single European currency had moderately eased eliminating its entire gains in the morning eventually.

As shown in the 4-hour chart the technical indicators appeared to be bullish. Resistance touched 1.0900 level, support pierced through 1.0850 range.

Moreover, a close over 1.0900 is expected to yield fresh bullish indicator in order to move further. It could probably reach the 1.0950 hurdle but correction is not ruled out as a means of filling the gap.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The general situation persists to manifest the same scene as of Tuesday. The British currency seems rangebound amid day trades. The price has already reached the band’s lower limit during the first part of the day and rebounded afterward.

The spot stalled having touched the range’s upper limit while technical indicators are in mixed signals.

Moreover, the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) trailed lower while the RSI together with the MACD showed positive indications. Resistance entered 1.2900 level, support entered 1.2800 area.

A negative scenario is projected to take place. In case that the GBPUSD touched below the 1.2800 support region will trigger a downtrend in the near future.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The Australian currency became negative yesterday. The AUDUSD surpassed the 0.7550 region during the first part of the day and resumed to trailed down near 0.7500 level.

The commodity-linked pair highlighted the mark amid late trades of Europe. While technical indicators showed a bearish trend. Resistance is seen at 0.7550, support lies at 0.7500 range

Furthermore, a daily close under 0.7500 mark would expose for attack the 0.7450 mark.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The Euro against the British pound declined on Tuesday after it broke above the 0.85 level giving a bullish tone in the pair. Consequently, the market will try to push the price higher possibly towards the 0.86 handle. If the price breaks lower than the base of the hammer pattern formed during Monday session, this will reverse the trend and will become bearish as they try to recover. It is anticipated for the pair to have very high volatility which traders should be cautious of.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The British pound against the Japanese yen dropped during Tuesday trading. There is significant support found at 140 level that could reverse the trend and for a massive green candle pattern. The market will try to break the price even higher up to 145 handle. The 140 level could now become the support of the pair. The pair is moving upwards that seems to be in a longer term. The British pound broke its psychological levels and which may last for some time.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: April 26, 2017

The USD/JPY pair exhibited a significant rally during Tuesday’s trading session after it garnered enough strength to break through the 111.000 trading range. The USD/JPY pair will now try to break 112.000 points but then there are a lot of occurrences which could dampen the currency pair’s advance towards this particular range. Positions on the JPY have recently dropped as there are now beginnings of a bullish undertone in all the related currency pairs.

However, the resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair is still undeniably strong, and this means that traders should be wary of putting their full confidence into the price action of the USD/JPY pair. Short-term corrections could be seen as an opportunity to buy into the pair, but traders are advised to go short with the Japanese yen as opposed to other currencies in addition to the US dollar.

Resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair are expected to be at 111.35 points, which could be a major selling point once the pair reaches 111.75 points.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 26, 2017

A lot of market players have been saying during the start of the week that the EUR/USD pair’s momentum would most probably enable the pair to advance towards 1.0900 and could even reach 1.1000. The currency pair is now trading at just under 1.0950 points, with trade-attributed risks continuing to hound the market as an effect of the very positive news from the eurozone over the weekend.

The results of the French national elections over the weekend showed Emmanuel Macron gaining significant headway against centrist candidate Marine Le Pen, with the opinion polls showing that Macron could possibly eclipse Le Pen further in the second round of the elections this coming May 7. Macron is considered as the more euro-friendly between the two candidates, and a Macron victory would translate to a very positive effect for the euro. On the other hand, we have seen the dollar weakening drastically across the board, and this has prompted several investors to pull out from safer assets and invest instead in the stock market and in the euro. In addition, Trump’s consistent statements with regards to building a wall and renegotiating its trade relations with Canada, and these kinds of statements are usually not well-received by the market and this dissatisfaction is evident by the number of market players who sold off the US dollar.

The EUR was able to clear up its annual highs within the 1.0900 trading range, and as such, the EUR/USD pair is expected to advance further towards 1.1000 points. For today’s session, there are no major releases coming from the EU economy, and the EUR/USD pair is expected to go higher as the day progresses. The euro rate announcement will also be released during tomorrow’s session, and the EUR/USD pair is expected to receive leverage from this particular piece of information.

April 26, 2017

Sweden-Maharashtra Collaboration For Climate Issues

The Kingdom of Sweden seems eager to join forces with Maharashtra with regards to waste disposal, urban development, and renewable resources.

Eva Svedling, Swedish climate deputy minister had a meeting with chief minister Devendra Fadnavis along with the state environment minister Ramdas Kadam to discuss the partnership about global warming and its solutions.

There are roughly 100 firms in Sweden have already prepared advanced solutions for air quality, energy sources, public transport and waste disposal whereas these operating companies could underpin this clean agent, according to Svedling.

The visit she made indicates the continuity of pursuing the joint statement made by the Indian PM Narendra Modi with Stefan Lofven as his counterpart in the Scandinavian country.

The long-term goals of Sweden are to minimize emissions up to 70 percent in the year 2030 from the level registered in 2010. They further aim to become the first country to be the fossil fuel-free by 2040 while the net zero carbon dioxide emissions are balanced in 2045.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 27, 2017

The New Zealand Dollar was kept under pressured area on Wednesday. The price weakened during the night and stalled near the level 0.6900 in the late session of Europe. Meanwhile, technical indicators provided sell signals.

Resistance highlighted 0.6950 mark, support is at 0.6900 area.

As the drop in the NZD quotations was canceled, a stable growth came about and breakdown to the region 0.7050 for further indication of growth.

There are no significant releases from New Zealand as the pair will not experience any impact with regards to the exchange rate.

Inability to maintain 0.6900 would likely move the NZDUSD to continue its downward momentum through 0.6850.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 27, 2017

The Australian currency slumped significantly during the Wednesday session as it broke lower than the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. A break lower than the 0.7450 level would proceed to go lower but sellers could come anytime in the market being the price to go up. The next target would range close to 0.7375 and below with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.

The pair broke in its support region but still lingers close today’s lows indicating strong pressure to sell the pair. It surpassed the 0.7475-0.7500 support range which was the former resistance area.

This could be followed by a slide towards at 0.7385 with followed by 0.7285 level with 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. As it reaches the 0.73 handle, a bullish trend becomes apparent which becomes a good support level. A breakdown in these levels could result to pursue selling in the next few days,

However, if the Aussie returned to 0.75 handle similar to daily close which is not a good sign. The price could move back directed towards the top of its range at 0.7700 and 0.7750. Nevertheless, a breakdown is more likely to happen.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: April 27, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar attempted to go higher but the 1.36 level stayed strong. Hence, the price would quite go down as the oil market surge. The 1.35 level becomes a significant support which would open more buying opportunities. However, if the price breaks higher than the latest high, this would translate the market into a buy and hold condition. It may not be favorable to order short this pair as it might go higher.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: April 27, 2017

The Euro paired against the British pound surged in the beginning of the Wednesday session. The Resistance level was too strong that the market failed to break out. Consequently, the price would most probably decline and tried to fill the gap formed at the beginning of the week. Traders who would like to sell for short-term could do so but should be heedful of a lot of noise present in the area and best to wait for the sidelines until a chance to go long comes in. A breakout of the current trading range would also be a propitious sign for this pair.