Daily Market Analysis by ForexMart

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The EUR/USD is still experiencing a tight-lipped trading range after trading within 30 pips. The market liquidity is not expected to increase until next year since there are no signs of currency flows as of late. However, the new year is expected to bring back market liquidity since this signals the end of the holiday season. The EUR/USD had high trading ranges during the North American session yesterday, where it attempted to go beyond 1.0470 points in order to reach 1.0530 points. Meanwhile, the USD exhibited a marked weakness during these past few sessions, particularly against the EUR. This trend is expected to remain for the rest of the week as the market attempts to remove some of the bearishness of other currencies against the USD. The USD’s strength is expected to bounce back next week, and it is therefore vital that the euro bulls would be able to take hold of this opportunity and accomplish all moves in order to avoid the adverse effects of the USD regaining its strength.
There are no major economic data releases expected from the international community for today’s sessions, and this means that added consolidation and ranging could possibly be felt as there are no currency flows which could be a catalyst for added market volatility. As such, traders are advised to tread lightly and remain within the sidelines for this particular period.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016

The U.K markets are not in operation in the observance of Christmas season which cause low market volatility, the weak volume had strengthened the dollar versus the British currency. The pound further consolidated amid early trades on Tuesday. The cable pair hovered below the area of 1.2300 prior to a fresh selling interest that influenced major currencies.

The traders are able to lead the GBP/USD towards a lower level at 1.2227. The 1-hour chart showed the priced reversed the 50-EMA downwards, the entire moving averages pointed lower which is also indicated in the same time chart. Resistance touched the 1.2300, support is seen at 1.2200. The MACD histogram softened which implies strong position for the sellers. The RSI reading stayed around the oversold zone.

In case the bearish sentiment continued to prevail, a breakout in the 1.2200 level is expected. Moreover, if the pound and dollar carried a breakout, the next target of the sellers is the 1.2100 support level.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016
The U.S dollar bolstered yesterday as few dealers decided to make some trade before the New Year celebration take place. The EUR/USD established a neutral position on Tuesday with the same closing level on Friday. The euro had a tough day around the 1.0450 region.
The price tested the 50-EMA as shown in the 4-hour chart. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200) remained to be bearish. Resistance reached the 1.0450 level, support is at 1.0400.
The MACD histogram lies in the center point. In case the indicator arrived in the negative zone, it would mean improved strength for the sellers. On contrary, the entry within the positive area would indicate buyers ability to dominate the market. RSI procured a neutral position.
An advance movement beyond the 1.0450 will assist buyers in expanding their gains towards the 1.0500 area. However, the price has the possibility to decline in the 1.0350 region if the sellers reclaim the control.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016

The stock market of Canada is close due to U.K’s official holiday, Boxing Day. While the release of GDP and CPI last week has changed the supposition of the Canadian regulator for the easing of its monetary policy in the near future. The pair remains in the hands of the buyers within its 6-week high. The greenbacks regain some of its losses because traders pushed the price towards the 1.3540 from the previous 1.3500 level.

The short-lived upward momentum further weakened in the predetermined level where the buyers came across the resistance of the sellers.

According to the 4-hour chart, the USDCAD hovered on top of the moving averages. The 50-EMA cross over the 200 and 100 EMA in an upward direction. While the 100 and 200-day moving averages are neutral and the 50-EMA headed up. Resistance highlighted the 1.3540 region, support sits in the 1.3470.

The MACD histogram grew less which confirmed weak position for the buyers. RSI remained overvalued.

If the 1.3540 region were unable to break, it would cause for a downward correction when the pair plunge below the 1.3470 support level. The next potential target of the sellers is 1.3400. The pair is able to expand its gains towards 1.3589 if the buyers break higher.

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The trading session for the pair yesterday has been calm and moves lower than the 0.69 handle. Last breakout for the pair was below the 0.70 level. This downtrend is expected to persist over the long term though a near-term bounce is needed to gain momentum to further go down towards the 0.68 handle. The commodities is giving mixed signals but it complements the New Zealand dollar since the Federal Reserve plans to implement several rate hikes before the year ends.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016

The pair USD/JPY sways within a tight range of 116.54 and 118.66 levels. If the market sustained the support level to be at 116.54, this means a consolidation of the price going upward from 101.18 level but it could further go towards 120.00 level. The main support is found at 114.73 level and a break lower than these psychological level completes the uptrend.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016
The pair continues to go downward from 0.7524 level. It rebounded to 0.7159 level but this is considered as consolidation of the decline. If the market was able to maintain the level at 1.7280 level, the decline would persist towards the next target at 0.7000 mark. However, if the pair break higher than the 0.7280 Resistance level, the downtrend is completely achieved.

December 28, 2016
US Stocks Trade Near Record High as Oil Prices Surge, Bonds Drop
US stocks traded within its record highs in the midst of low market liquidity after oil prices clocked in its longest gain streak within a four-month period. Meanwhile, US treasuries dropped following a weakening in the demand in a two-year notes auction. The rise in oil prices for the seventh straight day is a response to anticipation from majority of market players that the recent production cuts from both non-OPEC and OPEC member nations will be vital in the reduction of a supply surplus.

December 28, 2016
Vietnam Fast Economic Growth Gained More Than 6% in GDP
Vietnam’s economy rose by 6.21% this year being the fastest country to grow in the manufacturing sector. Its trade exports remain strong as it grew by 8.6% for this year despite sluggish global that is affecting other countries such as Singapore and China.

The Gross Domestic Product climbed 6.68% in the fourth quarter last year while an improvement of 6.56% was seen since September as stated by the General Statistics Office of Hanoi. The forecasted economic growth of the country by the Asian Development Bank is 63 percent for 2017 giving a positive outlook in the next several years and standout from the rest of Asian countries.

December 28, 2016
China’s Economy Remains Stable Until 2017
The Bureau of Statistics released the GDP of China showing 6.7% growth during the previous three quarters of 2016. The world’s second-largest economy established a stable growth which is a sign for the possible completion of the country’s target for the year.
The issued data further presented an economic stability under the industrial sector, consumption and investing sector from October to November. While the service industry rose because of an upbeat in agriculture. Chinese officials from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) are confident that the positive trends will continue until 2017. Stephen Roach, an economist told the China Daily that the attainment of the government’s target GDP growth will account for 1.2 percentage points.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016

The EUR/USD pair became somewhat active during the previous trading session after a lackluster performance during the past few days, and this is especially good news for traders who are waiting for any sign of market activity since the holiday season has caused the market liquidity to diminish. The currency pair was able to go beyond its daily price range of 30-40 pips, and the USD’s recent price surge has caused the EUR/USD pair to plummet below 1.0400 points and even reached 1.0360 points. However, the negative pending home sales data from the US has caused the currency pair to go back above 1.0400 points.

As the new year starts and the holiday season comes to an end, the market’s volatility and liquidity is expected to return, and liquidity levels could possibly go higher. However, the strength of the US dollar is not expected to be stalled anytime soon, and government leaders from both the UK and the European Union are now preparing for the onslaught of the Brexit process next year, which is expected to be very tedious for both regions. On the other hand, Germany will also be holding its elections next year, and the market will be closely monitoring Merkel’s performance before and during the elections. However, until such time that these things happen, market players should first monitor just how long will the USD be able to maintain its recent strong stance. For the EUR/USD pair, the currency pair is expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone as the market adjusts to the very disappointing pending home sales data from the US.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016
The USD was able to regain some of its lost strength during the earlier parts of yesterday’s trading session, which was felt all throughout the market, and has also affected the sentiment of the sterling pound. The GBP then plummeted and the GBP/USD pair went way below 1.2200 points after almost two months as a result of a very disappointing home sales data. However, as the North American session commenced, the GBP/USD pair was able to surface over 1.2200 points and has hovered over this level for the rest of the trading session. But it still remains to be seen whether the currency pair would be able to deflect the effects of the USD’s ever-growing strength.
The effects of the long and winding Brexit process is expected to be seen during the next several months since various government leaders from the UK and the EU is set to debate on how to go through with the process in general. These are expected to create a constant pressure for the sterling pound, and all reversions on the part of the GBP/USD could immediately be sold by bears, therefore making it hard for this currency pair to make any significant advancements in the coming months.
For today’s trading session, since there are no major economic data which is set to be released from the UK region, the GBP/USD pair is more likely to encounter more consolidation with a bullish undertone, especially since the market is currently experiencing low volatility and liquidity due to the holiday season.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016
The USD/CAD pair continued to trade in an upward direction due to substantial support coming from the USD, which was basically the market’s theme during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair was able to maintain its buoyancy in spite of the recent surge in oil prices. Market speculators are now stating that oil prices could be well on its way towards reaching its optimum price and once oil prices stop going in an upward direction, then this could put more pressure on the Canadian dollar, thereby inducing a strong uptrend on the USD/CAD pair.
The USD experienced a short correction during yesterday’s session after the US home sales data came in at a disappointing reading of -2.5% which fell short of initial market expectations of 0.5%. Luckily, the market is now shifting its focus on the Fed’s rate hikes this 2017, particularly the pricing of these rate hikes. The strength of the USD is very evident as of late, since the lack of trading and relatively low market liquidity was unable to mask the dollar’s strong stance, as well as the CAD’s pointed weakness.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic data scheduled to be released from Canada, while the US is expected to release its weekly oil inventory data. Since the market is relatively thin due to the holiday season, expect an added consolidation for the USD/CAD with a bullish undertone.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The dollar's strengthening influence many currencies on Wednesday. The project imposed by Trump about the increase in fiscal spending intended for the country’s economic growth and the recent data from Fed’s 2017 hike plan caused for a stronger stance over the USD.
Meanwhile, the EURUSD is unable to reacquire its gains yesterday. The euro was pushed towards the 1.0450 mark due to a renewed bout of selling amid the EU session. The sellers successfully break the level where it earned some energy to drive the price in a lower position.
As the pair pushed the level below 1.0400, bearish investors expanded its recent gains during the NA trading. As shown in the 1-hour chart, the price breaks the moving averages downwards.
The 200-EMA pointed northwards while the 50-EMA coupled with the 100-day moving averages headed to a lower area as indicated in the same time chart. Resistance touched the 1.0400 region, support settled within the range of 1.0350.
The MACD histogram rested in the centerline. The RSI moved out in the neutral zone and headed south where a present downward reading is confirmed.
According to forecast, the single European currency hovered in the downside. In case the price consolidated under the 1.0450 handle, the decline will continue reaching 1.0400 as it approach the area of 1.0350 .

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The policy tightening of the Fed in 2017 and the recent positive data from the US weighed on the Australian dollar.
The bullishness tried to extend above the 0.7200 however it failed. The AUD/USD lose steam to surge and promptly reversed after it posted a daily high that comes in at 0.7220.
The AUD met a renewed offer on top of the 0.7200 region upon the downfall of the pair beyond the aforesaid level. The pair resumed its downward movement subsequent to the break that approaches its recent low in the 0.7159 area. According to the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded through the 50-EMA downwards and step aside from the MA technical indicators.
The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs plummeted as indicated in the same time chart. Resistance dominated the 0.7200 region, support settled in the 0.7150.
MACD weakened which confirmed strength for the sellers. The RSI shifted southwards, favoring a downward momentum.
According to forecast, the bearish slope prevailed on Wednesday. Should the price focused on the support level below 0.7200, the downward trajectory will continue in the short term. The next target is 0.7100 and 0.7150.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 29, 2016
The British currency weighed down by major economic events which include renewed hard Brexit fears together with the UK Mortgage Approvals data that presented lesser than expected result.
Meanwhile, the 1.23 handle was unable to regain after series of attempts. The price rebounded the level and pointed southwards. The greenbacks started to lure buyer’s interest generally. The cable pair moved near the 1.22 support before the New York session.
As indicated in the 1-hour chart, the price rebounded against the 100-EMA and persist to go southwards as it breaks the 50-EMA towards a lower point. Moving averages resumed its bearish trend as shown in the same price chart. Resistance highlighted the 1.2300 region, support touched the 1.2200 level.
The MACD histogram is consistent to be on the same level which implies seller’s strength. RSI hovered in the oversold territory.
The forecast showed that a move below the 1.22 level would trigger for another downside pressure. Sellers are able to lead the sterling under the 1.2150 mark.

December 29, 2016
USD Reaches 14-Year Highs as EUR Plummets to Lowest Levels in 2016
The US dollar surged to its highest levels for this week and has nearly reached its highest trading range since 2002 as seen in the DXY index. Meanwhile, the EUR received the brunt of losses against the USD as compared to other currencies after losing about 0.6% of its previous trading value. Dollar gains were somewhat paired after the 10-year Treasury yields dropped to new session lows of 2.52% following a high auction demand for 5-year notes worth $34.0 billion.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 03, 2017

The GBP traded on a more positive note last Friday in spite of the relative lack of liquidity and volatility as a result of the holiday season. However, the gains of the sterling pound was limited by the USD’s strength as the market expects the Federal Reserve to become more stringent with regards to its monetary policies this year. The GBP managed to regain double its losses during Friday’s session as buyers were able to induce the GBP/USD to push through the 1.2300 region during the start of the European trading session and was able to reach the 1.2400 trading range. However, as the currency pair reached this particular level, the upward momentum of the GBP/USD sputtered and eventually dropped, thereby losing a fraction of its recent increases.
The 4-hour chart for the GBP/USD pair showed that the value of the currency pair was able to test its 50 EMA, while the 200 EMA was crossed by the 100 EMA as it was heading towards a downward direction. Meanwhile, the moving averages for the currency pair were able to retain their bearish tones. The resistance levels for the currency pair is speculated to come in at 1.2400, while support levels are expected to be at the 1.2300 region.
If buyers would be able to maintain their hold on the GBP/USD pair, then the value of the currency pair could possibly reach 1.2400 points. If this does not happen and the GBP/USD closes down below 1.2300 points, then this could give way to fresh bearish pressure for the currency pair and seller pressure could possibly induce the pair to drop at 1.2200 points.

January 3, 2017
Singaporean GDP Surges as Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations
The economic growth of Singapore has heightened significantly and has recently recorded its fastest growth within a three-year span during the previous quarter as a result of services and manufacturing data regaining some of its recent losses. The nation’s GDP increased by 9.1% during the last quarter of 2016, its fastest pace since the second quarter of 2013. Meanwhile, the overall annual growth for 2016 clocked in at a growth of 1.8%, the country’s slowest GDP growth since 2009.

January 3, 2017

Highest Remittances to Mexico Surged Over 10 Years Due to Trump’s Victory

The Remittances to Mexico has set a record-high in November over the past ten years er induced by the victory of Trump in U.S. presidential election. He has put the confidence in peso down bringing to record lows after the unexpected win of Trump and put at risk the money transfers. Trump has threatened Mexicans that money transfers will be hampered until there’s an agreement for payment for building the enormous wall to fence off all the illegal immigrants.
Almost $2.4 billion transfers were tallied from Mexicans abroad ranking higher than last year 24.7 percent, marking as their rapid expansion since March 2006. The Central bank of Mexico publicized that the recorded $27 billion remittances to Mexico in 2016 higher than the $2 billion in 2015

January 3, 2017

The Outlook for the Economy in 2017

The expected economic performance for 2017 appears to be very much alike with 2016 outlook. The economists surveyed by Reuters said it would be “uneven and unspectacular”. The optimism from investors is the result of the world economy breakout. While experts also mentioned the slowdown within the global trading as it became evident amid the minor recovery in the financial depression begun almost after a decade.
The emerging market remained to be seen as susceptible. The Asian markets are expected to have lesser growth seeing the 2017 prediction for global growth is 3.2 percent whereby the calculation appeared to be slightly less confident compared with last year.
The strength of the US dollar versus other currencies had influence developing economies in regulating a higher rate of inflation and with regards the declining index of business confidence.
The American economy had a high need for improving the output of every worker in order to prosper. On the other hand, the eurozone had recently accelerated since the European Central Bank had continuously purchase bonds per month worth ten billion euro. Moreover, the ongoing elections in the countries France, Germany and Netherlands is regarded a threat to the status quo of the Euro region.
Finally, the tightening campaigns of the central banks weakened the power of the global monetary policy.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 4, 2017
The USD/CAD was one of the few currency pairs which benefited from the dollar index surge, as well as the recent drop in crude oil prices during yesterday’s trading session, which was the result of the carrying out of the recent agreements between oil production firms. The USD/CAD pair continued to exhibit a somewhat circumspect trading in spite of the dollar strength and has also limited itself to a tight trading range yesterday. The USD/CAD pair made a short-term drop at just below 1.3400 points but eventually reverted back to due an onslaught in demand and is now currently hovering at just below the 1.3450 trading range. The currency pair is expected to increase its strength as the day progresses, especially since majority of traders are now finishing off the holiday season and are now coming back to their trading desks. Even if the increase in the dollar index is not expected to drop anytime soon, its effect on the currency pair is expected to be somewhat subdued since the effect of the dollar surge could be offset by the recent increase in oil prices.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic news releases from both Canada and US, and if the USD’s strength continues to go across the board, then the USD/CAD could possibly re-test the 1.3500 levels soon.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 4, 2017
The trading session for the pair USD/CAD was not smooth on Tuesday with traders returning from Holiday. Currently the pair is being tested on 1.34 support level while the resistance level is found higher than the 1.35 level. The long-term uptrend may persist if the trend yesterday keeps up but this is not favorable for the Canadian dollar. The psychological levels could continue towards the 1.36 level.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 4, 2017
In spite of the recent surge of the US dollar, the sterling pound was unaffected by the increase in the dollar index and was able to hold on its own. The GBP was able to manage the surge in the USD, thanks to the highly positive economic data from the UK which puts into view that the Brexit process might not be so bad after all and might even help with regards to the bolstering of the UK economy as long as it maintains its free access on the entirety of EU-based markets.
The Manufacturing PMI data from the UK was released yesterday and came in at an impressive reading of 56.1, going way beyond the initial market expectations of 53.3 and therefore helped in cementing the positive value of the sterling pound. One of the reasons why the GBP was able to withstand the increasing strength of the USD is that the market generally expects the worst economic readings from the UK as part of the repercussions of the Brexit process, but the economic data from the region comes out as increasingly positive. However, it still stands that the actual Brexit process has yet to begin, and the question still remains as to whether the UK will still be able to have continuously free market access to the EU markets after the said process.
For today’s trading session, the market is expecting the release of the construction PMI data from the UK, and since the dollar index is expected to retain its strength for today, it is important that this data comes out as positive since this will steer the general direction of the sterling pound. However, if the data comes out as negative, then the GBP/USD pair could possibly plummet to way below 1.2200 points.

January 4, 2017
Positive US Economic Data Stimulates Three-Month Dollar Index Surge
The USD has recently surged to its highest levels in 14 years as a string of highly positive economic data from the US increased the bullish outlook for the said currency this 2017. The USD increased further after US manufacturing data exhibited its fastest pace during a two-year period. Traders are now waiting for the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting which is set on Wednesday, as well as the US employment data which is scheduled to be released this coming Friday. as these are expected to determine whether the increasing value of the US dollar would still be retained in the coming days.