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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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Post by KostiaForexMart on Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:56 pm

USD / JPY. 23.10 | "Inside bar" below the level of 105.00

On Wednesday, the price of USD / JPY bounced from 105.50, after which it fell by almost 1000 points, the head and shoulders pattern worked out, reaching the previously indicated target at the resistance level of 104.50.

We have not managed to update the lows yet, however, in the medium term we would like to see further development of the downward trend. Trades based on the “inside bar” pattern are risky, as there is also a high probability of a rebound from a strong level. In the near future I expect to consolidate above 104.50 and retest this resistance.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:05 pm

GBP/USD. October 27, 2020 – Pound sterling recovers moderately

The GBP/USD pair is moderately strengthening on Tuesday, recovering from yesterday's decline to 1.2990. The current sterling quote is 1.3037.

Investors reacted positively to the news of the extension of the Brexit negotiations even before Wednesday. If earlier the UK was already ready to leave the EU without a deal, now there are hopes that an agreement between London and Brussels will still be reached by the end of December.

Experts note that the new round of negotiations, which started on October 22, is proceeding in an optimistic manner, and at the moment the parties have managed to agree on more than 90% of the controversial issues.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty. Attention can only be attracted by data on orders for durable goods in the US for September, as well as statistics on the consumer confidence index. Orders should rise by 0.1%, while the second indicator should rise from 101.8 points to 102.5 points. If the forecasts come true, the dollar will start strengthening to the area below 1.30.

GBP/USD. October 26, 2020 – Pound recovers after last week's fall

GBP/USD resumed gains earlier in the week, climbing from 1.3000 to 1.3075. Last week, the pair moved mainly within the downtrend from the 1.3170 level.

All the attention of investors today is riveted to any news on Brexit. It became known over the weekend that London and Brussels have decided to extend the talks until Wednesday. Last week, the British authorities already announced their readiness to leave the EU without an agreement at all, if Brussels does not compromise. In response, the European Union stated its desire to continue negotiations and reach an agreement, but «not at any cost.»

Interesting statistics were released last Friday. Retail sales in the UK unexpectedly rose 1.6% against the forecast for growth of 0.5%. At the same time, the business activity indices in the country came out worse than forecasted: the total PMI fell from 55.7 to 52.9 points, while the activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 54.1 to 53.3 points.

Important statistics from Britain are not planned today. In the US, data on new home sales will be published in September. Sales are expected to decline from 4.8% to 2.8%, which will put pressure on the dollar in the evening hours.

EUR/USD. October 26, 2020 – The dollar strengthened to the level of 1.18

The EUR/USD pair has returned to the 1.18 level again, falling from the 1.1860 area. The euro was pressured by the data on the IFO business climate index in Germany in September: the indicator came out worse than forecast, falling to 92.7 points against expectations of a reduction to 93.0. Otherwise, today the economic calendar is practically empty, and all the attention of the market will be shifted from statistics to politics.

As you know, the US presidential elections will be held on November 3. All pre-election debates have already ended and it remains only to wait for the event itself. And depending on the results, the path of the country's development and its monetary policy will be diametrically opposite. At the end of the debate, Democratic challenger Joe Biden takes the lead in the race.

In the evening hours, you should pay attention to the sales of new homes in the United States in September. Sales are expected to decline from 4.8% to 2.8%, which could somewhat halt the dollar's strengthening today.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:02 pm

EUR/USD. October 28, 2020 – Euro fell sharply to 1.1740

The EUR/USD pair began to decline sharply amid growing investor appetite for safe assets. The current quote for the pair is 1.1740.

The pressure on risky assets is exerted by the widespread development of the second wave of Covid-19 and the approaching date of the US presidential election (November 3). At the same time, the dollar was supported by yesterday's data on the volume of new orders for durable goods in the United States: in September, the indicator increased by 1.9% m/m after gaining 0.4% a month earlier. Analysts had forecast an increase of 0.5% m/m.

The indicator, excluding orders for transport and utility equipment, expanded 0.8% m/m after strengthening earlier by 1% m/m. The actual data exceeded the expectations of specialists twice.

The euro was directly pressured by rumors that Germany plans to introduce a two-week quarantine with a stop to everything except important social facilities. In France, they are discussing the strengthening of restrictive measures for a month, and in the UK, options for a second lockdown are on the agenda.

The economic calendar is empty for today, so the dynamics of the pair will continue to depend on the situation around the second wave of coronavirus and the expectations of tomorrow's ECB meeting.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:36 pm

EUR/USD. October 29, 2020 – Euro fell to 1.1700

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair demonstrates a steady decline to the level of 1.1700. The euro was pressured by news of additional restrictive measures in Germany and France. In France, a nationwide quarantine is introduced from October 30 to December 1, and in Germany – from November 2.

An additional driver of the weakening of the European currency was the news on Brexit. This week, there has been some progress in negotiations between the UK and the European Union, which has led to the strengthening of the EUR/GBP pair. This, in turn, put pressure on EUR/USD through the cross.

Today we should pay attention to the important meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the conference of Christine Lagarde. A softer rhetoric is expected from the regulator amid the threat of a repeated recession in the economy. In addition, the ECB may adjust its economic forecasts downward.

In the US, data will be published on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Their total number should decrease by 510 thousand. Moreover, a decrease is expected for both initial and repeated calls. Also, attention will be drawn to the report on US GDP for the III quarter and the index of unfinished sales in the real estate market in September.

USD/CAD. October 29, 2020 – The US dollar is growing steadily in tandem with the «Canadian»

The USD/CAD pair has been demonstrating confident strengthening in recent days. The current quote for the pair is 1.3340.

A meeting of the Board of the Bank of Canada took place yesterday, and the regulator, as expected, kept the key interest rate at 0.25%. In addition, it was decided to adjust the asset purchase program: now the bank will buy long-term bonds, which affect the rates on loans needed by households and businesses.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Maclem previously said that the central bank is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% for at least two years. These plans put pressure on the Canadian dollar.

An additional negative was brought by the decline in oil prices. Brent quotes fell to $38.30 a barrel for the first time since June 1. The driver of the decline was the data on oil reserves, which showed the strongest weekly growth since July, as well as the continued increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the world. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels.

Given the current news background, we can expect further growth in the USD/CAD quotes.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:42 pm

EUR/USD. October 30, 2020 – Euro continues to trade below 1.1700

At the end of the week, the euro continues to remain in the area of ​​minimums below the level of 1.17. The current quote for the pair is 1.1670. The European currency was under pressure from the results of yesterday's meeting of the ECB.

The European regulator kept the monetary policy unchanged (rate at 0%), but did not rule out the likelihood of its easing already in December. Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the widespread withdrawal of investors from risky assets.

At the same time, the dollar was supported by strong data from the US. A preliminary estimate of GDP for the third quarter showed economic growth by 33.1% q/q, with a forecast of an increase of 31.0%. In the second quarter, the country's economy collapsed by 31.4%. In addition, the US recorded a 40.7% rise in consumer spending in the third quarter, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell from 791 thousand to 751 thousand this week.

Today, one should pay attention to the data on GDP of the eurozone: the indicator in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 12.7% q/q and decreased by 4.3% y/y, which turned out to be much better than forecasts (an increase of 9.4% q/q and a decrease of 7% y/y). This data will allow the euro to regain its losses somewhat.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:07 pm

EUR/USD. November 2, 2020 – Euro has suspended its decline

November began for the euro with weakening to the level of 1.1615. There are enough pressure factors on the European currency. Here and a decrease in appetite for risky assets, and lockdowns in Germany and France, and the presidential elections in the United States. Additional pressure on the euro rate is exerted by the dollar's popularity as a safe asset.

Tomorrow will be the most significant event of the year – the US presidential election. Strong market volatility is likely from Tuesday to Thursday, as the future monetary policy of the United States is highly dependent on the new figure in the presidency.

In Germany, from today, a soft lockdown is being introduced, which includes restrictive measures to reduce the spread of coronavirus in Europe. France also intends to introduce measures in the coming days. However, both the German and French economies look rather weak and may not withstand the second lockdown.

Statistics on PMIs in the Eurozone and Germany were released today. Both indicators came out better than expected, which gave the euro some support and allowed it to rise to 1.1650.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:48 pm

Brent. November 3, 2020 – Oil rises on US dollar weakness

On Tuesday, Brent quotes are growing, reaching $40 per barrel. Prices are supported by the general weakening of the US dollar ahead of today's US presidential elections.

However, despite the upward momentum, market participants fear that a decrease in demand due to an intensification of the COVID wave amid growing supply will lead to oversupply and a collapse in prices, as was the case in the I-II quarter of this year.

In addition, the growth in oil production in the world continues to act as a factor for the weakening of Brent. The number of operating oil platforms in the US has reached its highest level since May this year, according to a Baker Hughes report. Moreover, in Libya, oil production reached 800 thousand barrels per day, and the figure could reach 1.3 million barrels by early next year.

In such conditions, it will be quite difficult for OPEC+ to maintain a balance in the oil market. The next meeting of the organization is scheduled for the end of November, while the risks of oversupply remain the main driving force of the market.

EUR/USD. November 3, 2020 – Dollar weakens against euro in anticipation of presidential elections

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday are growing steadily, returning to the level of 1.1700. The current quote for the pair is 1.1715.

Today is a very big day for the US dollar as America chooses its new President. And the future policy and economy of the country will depend on who will take the place of the head of the White House. The results of the voting will become known only tomorrow, therefore, during the day, the markets will experience increased trading volatility.

It should be noted that in 2016, when Donald Trump won the presidential election, the euro appreciated by 270 pp. Trump has threatened to appeal the vote if he is defeated this year, putting pressure on the dollar amid political uncertainty.

The American currency is under pressure, even despite strong data on business activity in the US manufacturing sector. Yesterday the business activity index for October was published: the indicator strengthened and amounted to 53.4 points against the previous value of 53.2. Today you should pay attention to the data on the volume of industrial orders in September: growth is expected from 0.7% to 1%.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:41 pm

GBP/USD. November 5, 2020 – Pound rises on general US dollar weakness

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is growing steadily, reaching the level of 1.3075. Today, a meeting of the Bank of England took place, following which the regulator kept the rate at 0.1%, and also announced the expansion of the purchase of government bonds by 150 billion pounds, bringing the total volume to 895 billion.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank has shared economic forecasts in the IV quarter: the regulator expects a decrease in indicators, since a four-week quarantine begins in the UK from today.

The US dollar against the pound sterling is weakening across the entire spectrum of the market after the publication of the interim results of the US presidential election. Joe Biden got 264 electoral votes and until the final victory he has to gain 6. At the same time, Donald Trump's team did not agree with such results and filed an application with the Georgia State Court to recount the voting results.

Despite the local growth caused by the weakness of the American currency, the general background for the pound remains negative. There are risks of uncertainty about Brexit, a nationwide quarantine, and weak economic indicators. The total business activity index in October fell from 52.3 to 52.1 points. The index of business activity in the service sector fell to 51.4 points.

EUR/USD. November 5, 2020 – Euro has reached the level of 1.18

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continues to grow steadily, approaching the 1.1800 level. Markets continue to await the outcome of the US presidential election. The results are still unknown, as the vote goes through the mail and the election committee has not yet collected all the votes.

According to preliminary data, Joe Biden collected 264 electoral votes and he lacks only 6 votes to complete victory. 214 boards voted for Trump. The team of the incumbent president has already filed lawsuits demanding a recount of the voting results in a number of states.

The current quote for the pair is 1.1795. Uncertainty regarding the summing up of the voting results may last until the end of the week, and only then the further direction of the pair will become known.

In addition to the election results, the meeting of the US Federal System and the subsequent comments of the regulator's representatives will be of interest. It is expected that until the passions around the elections subside and the White House does not decide on its further policy, the Fed will refrain from harsh statements and decisions. And under the current conditions, this can act as a positive factor for the dollar exchange rate. However, while the pair is growing steadily and during the day it can consolidate above the level of 1.18.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:23 pm

EUR/USD. November 6, 2020 – Euro confidently moves towards 1.19

EUR/USD maintains its upward momentum, approaching the 1.1850 level. Markets continue to monitor the US presidential elections, and the vote count is still in progress. So far, 264 electors have voted for Joe Biden, while 214 have voted for Donald Trump.

Biden's headquarters have already announced their victory, but Trump considers himself «the winner by legal vote» and is demanding a recount in some states. Market participants expect that if Joe Biden wins, the Democrats will quickly approve a package of fiscal stimulus measures, which supports risky assets today.

During the day, you should pay attention to the publication of the US Department of Labor report on the state of the labor market. The unemployment rate may fall from 7.9% to 7.7%. In addition, another 510 thousand new jobs can be created. If the data is confirmed, the dollar will receive some support.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:19 pm

EUR/USD. November 9, 2020 – Euro consolidates near the level of 1.19

The euro continues to strengthen against the dollar, close to the 1.1900 level. The US presidential election was won by Democratic representative Joe Biden, which put strong pressure on the dollar. The reason is that investors now expect more stimulus for the US economy, despite continuing divisions in Congress.

Last Friday, the United States presented a block of interesting economic statistics that went unnoticed amid the elections. In particular, the unemployment rate in the country in October fell to 6.9% against the forecast of 7.7%. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 638 thousand, while an increase of only 600 thousand was expected.

The only thing that turned out to be worse than expected was the increase in wages. The indicator on the average hourly wages in October increased by only 0.1% against the expectation of growth by 0.2%. In general, we can say that the US labor market still maintains a positive momentum.

The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1870. The RSI indicator moves horizontally, which signals the formation of a flat below the level of 1.19.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:10 pm

Brent. November 10, 2020 – Oil shows strong upward momentum

On Tuesday, Brent crude oil continues to rise, following the dynamics of yesterday. The current quotation of the asset is $42.88 per barrel. Experts note that such an upward trend has become the best over the past 6 months.

The growth driver was the news from the pharmaceutical company Pfizer that the vaccine it has developed is capable of protecting in 90% of cases of COVID-19 infection. The company said that they plan to obtain permission to sell the new drug by the end of November.

A cure for the coronavirus could significantly revive and revitalize the tourism industry, which has driven oil prices up.

Additional support for Brent was provided by the comments of the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia on the readiness of OPEC + to postpone the decision to revise the restrictions on oil production. According to the latest data, the total production of OPEC + countries in October increased by 210 thousand barrels per day and reached 32.27 million barrels per day. The increase in oil production was mainly due to the restoration of work in the fields of Libya.

EUR/USD. November 10, 2020 – Euro declines after yesterday's highs

The EUR/USD pair is showing a correctional decline today after yesterday's rise to 1.1920. The current quote is 1.1775. Yesterday was full of news that contributed to increased volatility.

First, Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election offers hopes for improving and strengthening America's international relations. However, buyers began to fix longs on the announcement by the head of the US General Services Administration of the refusal to recognize Joe Biden's victory, which increased political uncertainty in the country.

On the other hand, investors were optimistic about news from pharmaceutical company Pfizer about the success of a new vaccine capable of preventing 90% of coronavirus infections.

At the same time, the European currency was under pressure from the previously published statistics from the eurozone. Sentix investor confidence index for November deteriorated to -10.0 points against the previous value of -8.3. The data, however, turned out to be better than expected, implying a decline to -15.0 points. Additional negativity was brought by the news that the EU decided to impose reciprocal customs duties on US goods in the amount of $ 4 billion.

Today during the day the pair will adhere to the flat dynamics in the 1.1800 area.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:48 pm

EUR/USD. November 11, 2020 – Euro continues to weaken against the dollar

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair fluctuates weakly on both sides of the 1.1800 level, while the downward trend remains. Weak economic statistics from Germany put pressure on the euro: the ZEW economic sentiment index fell to 39.0 points, which was the lowest level since April this year. An additional negative is the worsening of the epidemiological situation in Europe.

At the same time, participants in the foreign exchange market are concerned about Donald Trump's attempts to annul the voting results in Michigan and Pennsylvania. And his further efforts in this direction will only increase the uncertainty in the United States and suppress the demand for risky assets.

Thus, the euro will continue to decline during the day, responding to the negative external background. The economic calendar is empty today, in the United States it is a day off in honor of the Veterans Day. Only in the evening will the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde be of interest.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:00 pm

GBP/USD. November 12, 2020 – Pound falls on weak economic data

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continues to decline, following the dynamics of yesterday. The current quote for the asset is 1.3145.

Uncertainty around Brexit continues to exert pressure on the pound sterling. Under current agreements, the UK and the EU must agree on an initial draft of the deal by November 19. The final agreement of the contract should take place before the end of December 2020.

Despite the ongoing negotiations, there is still no draft agreement, so the risks of a «hard» Brexit (without a deal) are growing every day. In this case, Britain will leave the single market and common customs space.

A large block of statistics from the UK was published today, which also put pressure on the British currency rate, as all data turned out to be worse than forecasted.

GDP in the III quarter increased by 15.5% in comparison with the previous quarter, which turned out to be worse than the forecast. Experts had expected growth to 15.8%. However, this growth has been a record since 1955. Industrial production data for September showed an increase of 0.5%, while experts had expected an increase of 0.8%. Manufacturing production rose 0.2% in September after rising 0.7% in August.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:49 pm

GBP/USD. November 16, 2020 – Pound shows high volatility in Brexit negotiations

The new week started with a weakening of the pound sterling to 1.3160 ​​from 1.3240. The British currency is under pressure from news on Brexit and trade negotiations between London and Brussels.

A spokesman for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday that previous differences over equal terms of trade and fisheries remain in trade negotiations with the European Union. The politician noted that negotiations will resume this week. There is about a month and a half left until the end of the transition period, and the peak of tension in the negotiations will probably be in December.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty. Attention may be drawn to the speech of the representative of the Bank of England J. Haskell.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:56 pm

Brent. November 17, 2020 – Oil holds in September highs

Yesterday, Brent quotes managed to reach the level of $44.60 per barrel, which was the highest since mid-September. The current quotation of the asset is $43.77. Prices are being supported by improved market sentiment amid reports of a new coronavirus vaccine. It became known that Moderna achieved 94.5% efficiency in trials of its drug from Covid, which strengthened investors' hopes for a global economic recovery, as well as demand for hydrocarbons.

Additional support for Brent was provided by macroeconomic data from China: industrial production in October increased by 6.9% compared to the same period last year. Retail sales added 4.3% compared to October 2019.

OPEC+ plans to refrain from increasing production until the oil market returns to balance are also a factor in the growth of oil prices. On the eve of the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee announced plans to extend the current restrictions on production for another three months.

However, the risks for the oil market are still high. The rate of spread of coronavirus infection around the world continues to grow, and the likelihood of new lockdowns remains. Which, in turn, cloud the prospects for global economic growth.

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Post by KostiaForexMart on Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:28 am

EUR/USD. November 19, 2020 – Euro shows decline

At the end of yesterday's session, the EUR/USD pair weakened to the level of 1.1810. The current quote for the pair is 1.1835.

The drivers of the decline were the correction of stock indices and gold, which fell in price after the news from Pfizer. The pharmaceutical company said the new COVID-19 vaccine is 95% effective, up from the previously announced 90%. And gold, as a rule, correlates positively with the European currency, therefore, the decline in the precious metal caused a correction in EUR/USD.

The EU summit on the fight against coronavirus kicks off today. Also on the agenda is the issue of the EU budget plan, which was previously blocked by Hungary and Poland. In the evening, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde will speak.

In the US, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published. It is expected that the number of initial applications may be reduced from 709 thousand to 685 thousand. And the number of repeated requests should decrease from 6,786 thousand to 6,250 thousand. Also of interest will be the publication of the index of manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia Federal reserve for November and statistics on second-home sales in October.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Fri Nov 20, 2020 10:35 pm

GBP/USD. November 20, 2020 – Unexpectedly strong retail sales data supported sterling

Despite the growing risks of a «hard» Brexit, the GBP/USD pair continues to move to local highs in the 1.3300 area. The current quote is 1.3280.

The dynamics of the pair was influenced by the statistics on the labor market in the UK. The number of applications for primary unemployment benefits for the week increased from 711 to 742 thousand against the forecast of 707 thousand. At the same time, investors were pleased with the reduction in secondary circulation from 6.801 million to 6.372 million against expectations of 6.47 million.

Today you should pay attention to the publication of a report on retail sales in the country. The figure in October came out much better than forecasted: sales increased by 1.2% compared to September, when the indicator grew by 1.4%. The forecast assumed growth of only 0.1%. In annual terms, sales increased by 5.8%.

At the same time, difficulties in negotiating Brexit continue to put pressure on the pound. Today it became known that negotiations were suspended again, now due to the discovery of Covid from one of the members of the negotiating team.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:45 pm

EUR/USD. November 23, 2020 – Euro reached the level 1.1900

EUR/USD maintains upward momentum, approaching the 1.1900 level. The current quote for the asset is 1.1890.

Emotions after the presidential elections in the United States have gradually subsided and now all the attention of the markets is shifting to negotiations in Congress on a new stimulus package for the American economy. Moreover, support for risky assets at the moment is provided by news on the vaccine. The UK is expected to approve a vaccine from Pfizer this week.

Friday's statistics from the euro area showed that consumer confidence in November deteriorated in line with forecasts: to -18.0 points against the October value of -16.0. For the European Union, the corresponding indicator fell in November to -19.0 points from the previous -16.5. The data is not very positive, but it was quite expected.

Today we should pay attention to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany: the indicator rose to the level of 57.9 points, which is better than the forecast of 56.5. Activity in the service sector fell slightly short of the forecast and amounted to 46.2. The composite index of business activity for the entire eurozone came out worse than expected: 45.1 points against expectations of 45.8. However, these data did not prevent the euro from continuing to strengthen.

In the evening hours, the USA will present similar data. However, these data are unlikely to support the dollar, as experts predict a decline in absolutely all business activity indices. Thus, the weakening of the dollar will continue throughout the day.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:31 pm

EUR/USD. November 24, 2020 – Euro is recovering from yesterday's drop to 1.18

Yesterday the euro rate fell sharply to the level of 1.18, but today the EUR/USD quotes returned to the 1.1880 level.

The dollar was supported yesterday by the statistics from the US, which came out stronger than expected and somewhat reduced the fears of market participants about the downturn in the economy. In particular, the preliminary index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from Markit showed an increase in November to 56.7 points against 53.4 earlier. Business activity in the service sector in November increased to 57.7 points from the previous 56.9.

In the eurozone, by contrast, similar indicators look less optimistic. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the region in November fell to 53.6 points from 54.8 in October. The index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector in November in the euro area deteriorated to 41.3 points from 46.9 earlier.

At the same time, the euro receives support on the news about the productive development of vaccines against coronavirus - the third option is already known. This restrains the dollar's growth and supports interest in the euro as a risky asset.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, only the data on house prices in the United States will attract attention, the growth rate of which may accelerate from 5.2% to 5.5%, as well as the Conference Board consumer confidence index for November (data is forecast to deteriorate).
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:03 pm

Brent. November 25, 2020 – Oil continues to renew highs

The oil market continues to grow, hitting multi-month highs. Brent is currently quoted at $48.50 per barrel.

Prices are supported by hopes for improved economic outlook and increased demand for hydrocarbons. Pharmaceutical companies continue to share positive news of the success of the Covid vaccines, boosting hopes for a fast global recovery and resumption of international travel.

Additional support for oil was also provided by the results of the recent US presidential election, which was won by the representative of the Democratic Party, Joe Biden. The political uncertainty surrounding the elections has significantly decreased, which has given strength to risky assets, which traditionally include oil.

EUR/USD. November 25, 2020 – Euro has renewed its maximum in early September

On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1930, hitting the high of early September. The European currency is supported by hopes that the coronavirus pandemic will be defeated in the near future. Markets are in anticipation of the imminent production of the Covid vaccine and the recovery of the global economy.

At the same time, the pressure on the dollar came from a weaker than expected value of the US consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. In November, the indicator fell to 96.1 points against the forecast of 97.7 and the previous value of 100.9 points. The current value has become the lowest in the last three months. Such data indicate that the stability of the labor market and the general state of the economy are still far from ideal.

From such data, it can also be concluded that retail sales in December-January will be weaker than forecasts (simply due to less optimism of buyers).

An additional influence on the dynamics of the pair is provided by the news about the readiness of the administration of US President Donald Trump to begin the process of transferring power to Joe Biden.

Today you should pay attention to the block of statistics from the US: GDP for the III quarter, the volume of orders for durable goods in October, the balance of foreign trade in goods for October and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in October.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:40 pm

EUR/USD. November 26, 2020 – Euro will continue to rally

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair renewed its early September high at 1.1940, later declining to 1.1900.

The European currency is supported by optimistic investor sentiment: the markets expect that an effective Covid vaccine will appear in the near future, which can contribute to a rapid recovery of the global economy.

The short-term strengthening of the dollar yesterday was caused by strong data on new home sales in October: the indicator rose to 999 thousand against the September value of 959 thousand. The positive statistics ended there, and the rest of the US data only disappointed the markets.

In particular, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose again over the week, from 748 thousand to 778 thousand. The GDP level for the third quarter did not change against the previous figure and amounted to 33.1%, which is worse than the forecasted 33.2%. Most disappointing was the data on personal incomes of American households, which fell 0.7% m / m. At the same time, costs increased by 0.5% m / m.

Moreover, at the end of the day, the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve System were published, which indicated that the regulator's course was maintained for further easing of monetary policy. Considering all that has been said, we can conclude that the «rally» of the euro will continue in the near future.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Fri Nov 27, 2020 3:57 pm

Brent. November 27, 2020 – Oil is correcting after an upward rally

Yesterday Brent began to decline, interrupting the upward rally. Prices failed to hold on to the reached maximum near $49 per barrel and retreated to $47.45. The current quotation is $48.40 per barrel.

Most likely, the driver of the decline was the news that Venezuela, despite the US sanctions, resumed oil supplies to China. This once again caused investors to worry about a possible oversupply of oil.

The Venezuelan state-owned company PdVSA signed a contract with China to resume oil supplies in August this year. And after the publication of the results of the US presidential election, Venezuela apparently decided to ignore Trump's sanctions.

Today is a quiet trading day as the United States continues to celebrate Thanksgiving. Brent will fluctuate weakly around $48.50 a barrel.

EUR/USD. November 27, 2020 – Euro is trading above 1.1900

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair resumed its growth: the current quotation of the asset is 1.1920. Thanksgiving weekend continues in the US, so the dynamics of trading today is rather sluggish.

The euro is strengthening, despite weak data from Germany, published yesterday. The consumer climate index in Germany from the GfK institute for December fell to -6.7 points from -3.1 earlier. This is even worse than predicted, suggesting that consumer sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic.

The index of economic expectations fell to -0.2 points from the previous 7.3, which was the worst value since May this year.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty and the EUR/USD pair will continue to fluctuate slightly above the 1.19 level.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:51 pm

EUR/USD. November 30, 2020 – Euro continues to rally

The European currency demonstrates steady growth in the trading on Monday, renewing September highs and coming close to strong psychological resistance at 1.20. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1983.

The euro is growing despite the negative statistics released last Friday. In particular, the indicator of sentiment in the eurozone services sector in November fell from -12.1 to -17.3 points, while analysts had expected a fall only to -15.5 points. The level of consumer confidence for the same period decreased from -15.5 to -17.6 points.

The main reason for the growth of the EUR/USD pair can be called the general weakness of the US dollar against the background of persisting significant epidemiological risks. In addition, investors expect that with the arrival of the new Joe Biden administration, long-awaited economic reforms will take place, and urgent programs to help the American economy will be approved. And that won't do the dollar any good.

Today we should pay attention to the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde, the consumer price index for November in Germany, as well as data on the volume of pending home sales in the United States in October.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:23 pm

GBP/USD. November 01, 2020 – The pound is confidently approaching the level of 1.3300

The British currency continues to show a decline from the 1.3400 highs area. The current quote for the pair is 1.3315.

Investors are still awaiting progress in the Brexit negotiations. Earlier, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, noted that the fate of the trade agreement will be decided this week, while the EU is ready to exit without a deal with Great Britain.

Yesterday, the dynamics of the pound was also affected by economic reports: the volume of consumer lending in October fell by 0.6 billion pounds, but the total number of approved applications increased from 91.454 to 97.5 thousand.

Today we should pay attention to the November house price index from Nationwide and the PMI of the manufacturing sector in the UK. Business activity in the country remained at 55.6 points, while analysts predicted the figure at 55.2. In the US, the manufacturing PMI will also be published and Jerome Powell will speak.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Wed Dec 02, 2020 11:46 pm

Brent. December 02,2020 – Oil declines after postponing OPEC+ meeting

During trading on Wednesday, oil recovered somewhat after falling to $46.90 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $47.30.

The pressure on prices increased after OPEC+ postponed until Thursday the final decision on oil production quotas, which will operate from January 1, 2021. The oil cartel was supposed to make the appropriate decision on Tuesday.

Currently, the cumulative reduction in oil production by the alliance countries is 7.7 million barrels per day. OPEC+ planned that from January production will increase by 2 million barrels per day. However, the countries did not reach a consensus during the meeting on Monday due to persistent disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over countries that were in bad faith in fulfilling the terms of the deal, in particular Russia.

Market participants are looking forward to the outcome of the next meeting: the most likely outcome will be an extension of the current terms of the deal by three months. However, this is unlikely to be enough to offset the negative impact on demand amid the deteriorating situation with the coronavirus in the world, so the sales in the oil market are likely to continue.
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