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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:25 pm

EUR/USD. April 28, 2020 – Euro is moderately growing to 1.09

The euro continues to grow on Tuesday, approaching 1.09. The fact is that the US dollar fell across the entire spectrum of the market after the growth of futures for US stock indices. Moreover, the appetite for risky assets increased after many countries presented plans to ease quarantine restrictions for many enterprises.

Today is not rich in macroeconomic publications. Attention may be drawn only by data on home sales in the US secondary market for March (a decrease of 9.7% is expected), as well as an indicator of consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for April.

Market participants remain neutral in anticipation of tomorrow's meeting of the US Federal Reserve. And although analysts do not expect the introduction of any additional incentive measures, the regulator will have to provide relevant estimates of the economic consequences of the virus.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:05 pm

EUR/USD. April 29, 2020 – The dollar is weakening in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting

On Wednesday, the euro continues to grow moderately in anticipation of the results of the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Most likely, the regulator will keep the rate and monetary policy at the same level, but it is worth paying attention to the press conference of the Fed head Jerome Powell. The politician must report on the future purchase of government bonds.

Yesterday's data on the index of industrial activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond put pressure on the dollar – the figure in April fell from the level of 2 points to -53. This was the strongest index drop in history. In addition, the foreign trade balance deficit in March amounted to $64.22 billion, compared with a deficit of $59.89 billion a month earlier.

Today, attention should be paid to the publication of preliminary US GDP. Analysts forecast a decrease of 4%. In the euro area will be published consumer confidence index for April. Experts expect the figure to be -22.7 points. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.0865.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:36 pm

Brent. April 30, 2020 – Oil started to grow, receiving the support of several factors

On Thursday, Brent crude quotes rose to $26.60 per barrel, receiving support from data on crude oil reserves in the US from the country's Ministry of Energy. According to the recent report, stocks of raw materials in US storage facilities grew less than forecast – by only 9 million barrels. The forecast assumed an increase of 10.6 million barrels.

Additional support for oil prices was provided by a general improvement in market sentiment amidst the fact that some countries are considering mitigating the restrictions associated with coronavirus.

Experts also note that from May 1, the terms of the new OPEC+ agreement to reduce global oil production will come into force. Norway also joined the deal, saying that in June the country intends to reduce production by 250 thousand barrels per day, and in the second half of the year – by 130 million barrels.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Fri May 01, 2020 1:54 pm

EUR/USD. May 1, 2020 – Euro rose to 1.0980 after the announcement of the ECB meeting results

The EUR/USD pair rose to two-week highs, reaching 1.0980. Yesterday, the results of the ECB meeting were announced, at which the regulator kept the interest rate at 0%, and the deposit rate at -0.5% per annum.

The Central Bank also announced the launch of a new program for long-term lending to eurozone banks and stated its readiness to increase the scale of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) announced in March, currently amounting to 750 billion euros. These measures supported the European currency.

The US dollar was under pressure from weak statistics. In particular, the weekly report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits recorded an increase of up to 3.839 million against a forecast of growth of up to 3.500 million. Data on expenditures and incomes of the population in March also fell below expectations: the first indicator fell by 7.5%, and the second – on 2%. Analysts had forecast values ​​at 4.8% and 1.6%, respectively.

Today the news background is calm, in a number of European countries it is a day off. Only data on the April index of business activity in the USA can attract attention: experts expect a decrease to 36.7 points against the previous value of 49.1.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue May 05, 2020 2:08 pm

EUR/USD. May 5, 2020 – Euro declines after weak data emerges from eurozone

On Tuesday, the European currency continues to decline, reaching 1.0840. Sentix data exerted pressure on the euro: the May consumer confidence index fell to -41.8 points against the forecast of a decline to -33.5. Moreover, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany fell in April from 45.4 points to 34.5, while the experts' forecast suggested a fall to 34.4 points. The indicator for the entire region fell to 33.4 points against the forecast of 33.6.

Today, the German Constitutional Court will rule on the ESM incentive program and the EU fiscal pact. The approval of the program can provide some support to the euro.

Earlier the United States provided data on the volume of factory orders in March. The indicator decreased by 10.3% in monthly terms against the previous fact of a decrease of 0.1% m/m and the forecast of a decrease of 9.2% m/m.

Today, you should pay attention to statistics on the producer price index in the eurozone in March. The indicator fell from the level of -0.7% to -1.5%. The United States will present data on the trade balance for March and the index of business activity in the service sector for April.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Wed May 06, 2020 1:44 pm

EUR/USD. May 06, 2020 – Euro broke down the level of 1.08

The euro remains under pressure amid weak demand for risky assets due to rising tensions between the US and China. At the same time, the US dollar received support from the strong macroeconomic statistics. Data on business activity in the service sector showed a decrease from 52.5 to 41.8 points. Fresh data significantly exceeded the expectations of analysts who predicted the index to fall to around 38.0.

The main event of yesterday was a statement by the German Constitutional Court, which accused the European Central Bank of exceeding its authority in the implementation of certain points of the quantitative easing program (QE).

Additional pressure on the European currency was provided by weak statistics from the eurozone: the producer price index fell to -1.5% (forecast -1.3%). And the publication of the report on retail sales showed a drop from 0.6% to -11.2%.

The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.0780. The RSI indicator on the H1 chart bounced off the support level, which signals the completion of the downward euro rally. During the day, the pair will continue to fluctuate slightly near the level of 1.0800.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Thu May 07, 2020 3:00 pm

EUR/USD. May 07, 2020 – Euro continues to trade below 1.08

On Thursday, the euro continues to decline, reaching 1.0785. Pressure on the European currency was exerted by a court decision to challenge Germany’s participation in the eurozone economy stimulus program.

Additional pressure on the asset was provided by weak data from Europe. In particular, the business activity index in the eurozone services sector in April fell from 26.4 points to 12, while the forecast suggested a decrease to 11.7 points. Composite business activity index was 13.6 points against the forecast of 13.5. Moreover, the European Commission has adjusted the forecast for unemployment in the eurozone from 7.5% to 9.6% against the backdrop of the fight against coronavirus.

Moreover, weak macroeconomic data came out in the United States either, however, the «Eurobulls» were not able to take control of the situation. According to ADP, in April, a record 20.236 million Americans lost their jobs.

Today you should pay attention to the data on the change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States over the past week.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Fri May 08, 2020 2:42 pm

EUR/USD. May 08, 2020 – Dollar weakens awaiting labor market statistics

Yesterday, trading on the euro ended with growth to the level of 1.0850. The US dollar showed some weakening, as an increase in risk appetite of investors led to a decrease in demand for safe assets.

In addition, investors are worried about the negative interest rate by the US Federal Reserve. Experts note that the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds, sensitive to the expectations of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, fell to a record low closing value of 0.133%.

Yesterday, macroeconomic statistics from the United States also acted as a pressure factor on the US dollar. Over the past week, another 3.169 million Americans have filed initial jobless claims. As a result, since the end of March, there have been 33.5 million such applicants.

Today we should pay attention to an important report on the labor market in the States. Analysts' forecasts are rather gloomy: employment in non-agricultural sectors is expected to decrease by 22 million jobs, and the unemployment rate may jump from 4.4% to 16%. In anticipation of these statistics, the EUR/USD pair will continue to grow above the level of 1.0850.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Mon May 11, 2020 1:28 pm

Brent. May, 11 – Oil continues to decline at the beginning of the new week

At the beginning of the trading week, oil continues to decline to $30 per barrel. However, buyers are able to maintain their positions even against the backdrop of doubts about the success of the new OPEC energy pact, as well as amid the pessimistic comments by Fed representatives about the pace of economic recovery after the pandemic.

Brent remains under pressure from rising stocks and still depressed oil demand. According to data from the IEA published last week, US stocks rose 4.6 million barrels (to 532.2 million barrels). Moreover, inventory growth has been observed for the third week in a row.

Thus, the collapse of demand, coupled with the lack of available storage space for hydrocarbons, will inevitably lead to a further decrease in oil quotes.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue May 12, 2020 2:39 pm

GBP/USD. May 12, 2020 – Sterling shows growth despite many negative factors

The GBP/USD pair began the day with growth to the area of ​​1.2370. The British currency is growing, despite the deteriorating market sentiment and weak English statistics. Growing demand for defensive assets amid news of repeated outbreaks of coronavirus in Asia could put pressure on the British pound and support the US dollar.

An additional negative for sterling are disappointing forecasts regarding the dynamics of the English economy. The Bank of England said that by the end of 2020, the UK economy is expected to decline by 14%, which could be the worst indicator in almost 300 years.

Tomorrow you should pay attention to the data on the country's GDP for March. The economy is expected to decline by 7%. If the forecast is confirmed, the pressure on the pound will intensify, and the pair GBP/USD will return to the area of ​​1.2200.

Another driver of decline is the political uncertainty in the region. By the end of the year, the country's authorities have to agree with the EU on Brexit issues. Thus, in the current environment, the pound is unlikely to have enough strength to grow.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Wed May 13, 2020 2:34 pm

EUR/USD. May 13, 2020 – Euro has come under pressure from industrial production data

The euro failed to overcome the level of 1.0880 yesterday and made a decline to the level of 1.0830. Today, data on the volume of industrial production in annual terms were published in the eurozone. The rate of decline increased from -2.2% to -12.9%, which put pressure on the euro. During the day, the EUR/USD pair will continue to decline to 1.08.

Yesterday, the US provided April inflation data, according to which the consumer price index fell to 0.3%. The last time such low inflation was recorded in October 2015.

Today, attention should be paid to the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve. It is expected that the head of the regulator will indicate the need to continue the program of quantitative easing and expand the balance of the Fed. In March, BlackRock, through which the bulk of FOMC operations go, announced that the Fed's balance sheet could be expanded to $9 trillion. Today, this figure is $6.72 trillion.

The expansion of the balance traditionally leads to a weakening dollar, since an increase in the money supply leads to a depreciation of the national currency.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Thu May 14, 2020 3:17 pm

EUR/USD. May 14, 2020 – Euro declines after J. Powell speech

On Thursday, the euro declines, continuing the dynamics of yesterday. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.0775. Pressure was exerted by the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. He noted that economic forecasts for the US are «extremely uncertain and subject to significant negative risks.» At the same time, the possibility of negative interest rates is not yet considered by the regulator.

Market participants reacted to Powell's performance with sales of risky assets.

Also, the tense situation between the US and China remains the focus of markets. The United States continues to accuse the PRC of spreading the coronavirus, while Beijing, in turn, is considering the possibility of retaliatory steps (in the case of the imposition of sanctions by America).

Today, attention should be paid to data on changes in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Experts predict a decline to 2.500K.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Fri May 15, 2020 3:56 pm

EUR/USD. May 15, 2020 – Euro is stable at 1.08

The pair EUR/USD remains stable near the level of 1.08 at the end of the week, being influenced by multidirectional factors. On the one hand, American statistics are mixed, which puts pressure on the dollar. And on the other hand, the indicators of Europe are also not encouraging, and the region remains in quarantine.

Today it is worth paying attention to a whole block of interesting macroeconomic statistics. The eurozone presented its second estimate of GDP for the first quarter: the economy contracted at 3.8%. In annual terms, the region’s GDP decreased by 3.2%.

In the evening, the US will publish retail sales data for April – analysts expect a strong drop in the indicator (by 12.0% on a monthly basis). In March, the indicator fell by 8.7% m/m. The volume of industrial production in April will also arouse the interest of traders: the indicator may decline by 11.3 m/m.

Pending this data, the pair will continue to fluctuate near the level of 1.08.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Mon May 25, 2020 4:07 pm

EUR/USD. May 25, 2020 – Euro remains under pressure at the beginning of the week

The euro continues to weaken at the beginning of the new week. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.0900, however, at the start of trading, the euro was located at 1.0860. The dollar is now being supported by its «safe haven» status amid the uncertainty surrounding China’s new national security bill.

Investors fear that a law prohibiting terrorist and separatist activities will complicate the observance of the rights and freedoms of the people of Hong Kong, which once already led to a wave of protests. At the same time, the United States may intervene in this matter, which will further aggravate relations between the two largest economies in the world and provoke an escape from risky assets.

Today in the US is a day off in honor of the celebration of National Memorial Day. The macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, you should pay attention only to data on German GDP for the I quarter. Statistics confirmed a 2.2% decline in the economy, which was the largest decline since the first quarter of 2009. In annual terms, the decline in GDP amounted to 2.3%. All results coincided with analysts' forecasts.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue May 26, 2020 1:44 pm

EUR/USD. May 26, 2020 – Euro rose sharply to 1.0970

On Tuesday, the euro started to rise sharply, reaching 1.0970. Support for the currency was provided by the statistics on the consumer climate index GfK in Germany in June: the figure recovered to -18.9 points after falling to -23.4 in May. The improvement of the index gave a signal about the consumer’s readiness to quit quarantine completely, which is not bad both for the German economy and for the economy of the entire eurozone.

In the afternoon, attention should be paid to the publication of the ECB's report on financial stability, but it is unlikely to bring any surprises, since all relevant information is constantly coming from the eurozone finance ministers in the process of agreeing on a stabilization fund of 500-600 billion euros.

In the evening hours data on sales of new homes in the United States in April will be published. Experts predict a sharp decline to 492 thousand against the March figure of 627 thousand. In addition, the May value of the Conference Board consumer confidence index, which could recover to 87.1 after the April decline to 86.9, will be of interest.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Wed May 27, 2020 1:49 pm

EUR/USD. May 27, 2020 – Euro updated two-month high

The euro has shown a sharp jump in prices to the level of 1.1030 amid a recovery in global economic activity due to the lifting of restrictions in many countries. Expectations that the economy will return to pre-crisis levels support risky assets.

At the same time, market participants are monitoring the situation around tensions between the United States and China. Also, pressure on the euro may increase if many EU countries oppose the creation of a fund of 500 billion euros. As it’s known, Germany and France have already agreed on the creation of a fund, but not all EU heads of state share their views.

Yesterday, statistics on new home sales in the United States were published – the indicator unexpectedly increased from 619 thousand in March to 623 thousand in April. Analysts predicted a serious drop in sales. Moreover, the Conference Board consumer confidence index for May rose to 86.6 points from 85.7 earlier. These data provided the dollar with short-term support, but today the growth of the European currency will continue. The main goal of the «bulls» is the level of 1.1050.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Thu May 28, 2020 1:45 pm

EUR/USD. May 28, 2020 – The pair is consolidating at 1.10

Yesterday, the euro showed significant appreciation, reaching the level of 1.1035. The European currency was supported by news that the European Commission was ready to agree on an additional package of assistance to the region’s economy in the amount of 750 billion euros. However, the optimism of market participants did not last long – the euro quotes began to decline after the speech of the ECB chairman Christine Lagarde.

The head of the regulator said that the eurozone economy could lose 8-12% on the negative consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. The «soft» scenario for the development of the region’s economy for 2020, which implies a 5% decline in GDP, has already become irrelevant. Thus, the pair fell to the level of 1.10.

Today is full of interesting statistics from the USA. The States will provide a preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. The economic slowdown is expected to be 4.8%. Additional pressure on the US dollar today may have data on orders for durable goods: their volume should decrease by another 19.0%. Repeated applications for unemployment benefits can also set a new record - their growth is expected to reach 26.180. Thus, Thursday may turn out to be a black day for the US currency, which will allow EUR/USD quotes to return to the area above 1.10.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Fri May 29, 2020 1:45 pm

EUR/USD. May 29, 2020 – Euro continues its rally

The euro continues its rally, approaching the level of 1.1150. Support for the currency is provided by increased demand for risky assets, the general weakness of the US dollar in the Forex market and the expectation of the creation of the Fund in the amount of 750 billion euros to restore the European economy.

The US dollar came under pressure after the release of weak statistics. The economy in the first quarter of 2020 decreased by 5% in annual terms. The forecast assumed a decrease of 4.8%. Data on orders for durable goods also turned out to be far from optimistic. Today, attention should be paid to the April personal income and expenses report and the statement by J. Powell, during which the head of the Fed may hint at the regulator's further plans to support the US economy.

Eurostat today published data on inflation in the EU: consumer prices in the eurozone in May 2020 increased by 0.1% in annual terms, which provided additional support for the euro. During the day, the EUR/USD pair will continue to grow above the level of 1.1150.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:42 pm

GBP/USD. June 01, 2020 – Sterling grows steadily to an area above 1.24

The British sterling continues to show an upward trend, reaching a level of 1.24. The currency is supported by the general weakening of the US dollar after statistics released on Friday and D. Trump's speech at a press conference.

In particular, the Chicago PMI index in May fell from 35.4 to 32.3 points. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell from 73.7 to 72.3 points over the same period. Even more market participants were disappointed with the report on personal expenses in the USA: according to published data, personal expenses in the USA decreased by 13.6% against the forecast of a decrease of 12.6%.

Donald Trump during his speech said that he was stopping WHO funding, and also again accused China of hiding information about the dangers of coronavirus.

Today, Britain presented a report on business activity in the manufacturing sector for May. The index recovered to 40.7 points from multi-year lows in April, which provided additional support to sterling. This week, you should pay attention to the report on activity in the services sector in England, which will be released on Wednesday. If statistics disappoint markets, the Bank of England is likely to cut rates or expand the QE program at a meeting in June.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:48 pm

Brent. June 02, 2020 – Oil grows amid recovery in demand

The oil market continues to grow: Brent quotes on Tuesday reached $39.55 per barrel. Support for prices is provided by a recovery in demand amid a softening of quarantine measures, as well as a reduction in oil production by key oil-producing regions of the world under the OPEC+ deal.

OPEC+ video conference will take place on Thursday, in the framework of which the heads of countries will discuss the extension of previously reached agreements. Saudi Arabia is in favor of extending the terms of the agreement, however, some countries, including Russia, are not ready to extend the reduction in production after June.

The price of Brent is rising, despite the deterioration in relations between Beijing and Washington. The day before, China announced a temporary halt to imports of certain types of agricultural products from the United States, including soybeans. Such a move could further aggravate the contradictions between the two countries and call into question current and potential trade relations.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Wed Jun 03, 2020 1:56 pm

EUR/USD. June 03, 2020 – Euro overcomes 1.12 level for the first time since early March

An optimistic atmosphere prevails on global markets, and the euro has reached 1.1200. Demand for risky assets is growing as market participants focused on the prospects for business recovery after the coronavirus pandemic, despite ongoing riots in the United States.

In addition to the general weakening of the US dollar in the Forex market, the impact on the euro is expected by tomorrow's meeting of the ECB, according to which the regulator can increase the program for the purchase of financial assets by 500 billion euros and extend this program after 2020.

Today, you should pay attention to the ISM index of business activity in the US services sector for May and data on the labor market from ADP. Analysts predict an increase in the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits after a sudden decrease last week. Moreover, a new record value is predicted - 26,690 thousand. These data can put further pressure on the exchange rate of the American currency.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:43 pm

GBP/USD. June 04, 2020 – Sterling rises from 1.25

In the morning hours, the British currency continued to recede paired with the dollar, but the «bears» failed to overcome the level of 1.25. The current quotation of the pair GBP/USD is 1.2535. The pressure on sterling was exerted by statements by the Bank of England that it was necessary to be ready for Brexit without a trade transaction in transition. The regulator intends to prepare the financial system in the country for probable risks and economic stresses.

Yesterday, the UK released data on business activity in the service sector: the indicator unexpectedly rose from 13.4 to 29.0 points. However, these data did not support the British pound.

The US dollar, on the contrary, strengthened after the release of data on the labor market from ADP: the number of people employed in the country fell by only 2.7 million people, while experts forecast that this figure would fall by 9 million people.

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Post by KostiaForexMart on Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:53 pm

EUR/USD. 05.06. Euro keeps growing momentum

The euro strengthened at the end of the week, reaching 1.1390. However, in the morning hours, the pair shows a decline to the level of 1.13 as part of the correction. Yesterday, the European Central Bank announced that it intends to support the economy in all available ways, including increasing the volume of the PEPP program by 600 billion euros per month (about $ 1.35 trillion). The program was extended until June 2021.

The regulator also noted the risk of lowering core inflation in 2020 to 0.9%, which is too little for the European region. Therefore, stimulating the economy can last not only until the summer of next year.

Today, you should pay attention to statistics on the US labor market. The unemployment rate, at a record high of 14.7%, could rise to even more frightening levels – 19.5%. Last month, the number of jobs decreased by 20,500 thousand, now it can decrease by another 4,870 thousand. And this picture looks extremely pessimistic for the American currency.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:16 pm

EUR/USD. June 08, 2020 – US dollar gets support from labor market data

EUR/USD is falling at the beginning of a new trading week. The current quote of the instrument is 1.1275. The US dollar was supported by data on the US labor market: the unemployment rate in the country in May was 13.3% compared to 14.7% in April. These statistics turned out to be much better than the forecast suggesting an increase in the indicator to the level of 19.8%.

The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased during the reporting period by 2.5 million, the forecast assumed a decline of 8 million. The data for April were simultaneously revised to deteriorate to -20.687 million from -20.537 million. The average hourly wage in May fell by 1% m/m, which turned out to be worse than the forecast suggesting growth by the same amount.

Today is calm in terms of the release of important macroeconomic statistics. Of interest will only be the speech of the ECB President Christine Lagarde.
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Post by KostiaForexMart on Tue Jun 09, 2020 2:05 pm

Brent. June 09, 2020 – Oil declines due to several factors

Oil quotes show a decrease from yesterday's highs above the level of $43 to $40 per barrel. The oil market is weakening, despite the extension of the OPEC+ deal until the end of July and the decision to increase production cuts by countries that have not fully fulfilled their obligations in the past months (Iraq, Nigeria, Kazakhstan). Analysts suggest that the pressure on oil prices was caused by doubts of market participants about the success of the new deal.

An additional negative impact on Brent quotes was made by statements by the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia that the Persian Gulf countries, which intended to reduce production by another 1.18 million barrels per day, no longer plan to extend this reduction after June.

Moreover, Mexico refused to reduce production in its country and, on the contrary, intends to resume production after five months of downtime due to the civil war in the country.

The current Brent quote is $40.11 per barrel. Analysts note that price reductions will continue in the near future, as the news on the extension of the OPEC+ deal has already been fully taken into account in quotes.
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